如果美俄中忽然消失，哪个国家会成为新的超级大国? 印网友：承让了！
If America, Russia and China suddenly ceased to exist, what country/countries would be the new superpower of the world?
译文简介
看看老外们的意淫八卦
正文翻译
If America, Russia and China suddenly ceased to exist, what country/countries would be the new superpower of the world?
2022-03-19
如果美俄中忽然消失，哪个国家会成为新的超级大国?
评论翻译
很赞 ( 6 )
收藏
The one that destroyed them
当然就是那个毁了他们的那个国家啊
gymcels
Chances are the one that destroyed them would also have been destroyed by them
有可能敢毁掉他们的人也被他们给干掉了
India, France, Germany, Japan and Canada I reckon. Maybe Brazil, Australia and Indonesia could claw their way up somehow.
我想是印度、法国、德国、日本和加拿大。也许巴西、澳大利亚和印尼也可能有上位的机会。
If it came to that, everyone everywhere would die within months
真出现这种情况的话，地球上的人几个月内就都完蛋了
What if they were undone from the inside and just collapsed from civil war?
要是他们从内部瓦解，爆发内战而崩溃了呢?
Depends on how they disappeared. If all their populations disappeared too and lands and resources vacated. Canada doesn't have enough population to occupy the vacated territory neither does Japan though they may try. India for sure could easily settle China and a good deal of Russia.
这取决于他们是怎么没的。如果连他们国家里的人，土地和资源也没了。加拿大可没有那么多的人去占领空出来的领土，日本也一样，尽管他们可能会去试试。不过印度肯定可以轻松拿下中国和俄罗斯的很多地区。
If the land they occupied suddenly disappeared a lot of countries would find themselves with brand new coastlines. That would definitely stir things up a bit.
如果他们占领的土地突然消失，很多国家就会发现自己有了全新的海岸线。那肯定会引起哄动的。
If America magically turned into ocean, Canada would have a huge new southern coast, which would greatly simplify trade for our landlocked interior regions.
But it also means that our Great Lakes would be salt water instead of fresh water, which would really cause problems for the water infrastructure where I live.
如果美国大陆神奇地变成一片海洋，加拿大将有一个漫长的新的南部海岸，这将极大地方便我们内陆地区的贸易。但这也意味着我们的五大湖里的水将是海水而不是淡水了，这真的会给我们的供水基础设施带来问题。
I see India and Japan consuming China and Russia.
Venezuela and Argentina would be the power brokers of South America.
The UK and again Japan are in the best position to consume the resources of North America.
I can see Canada taking Alaska, Michigan, Vermont, Washington, Idaho, Wisconsin, Montana, Maine, Minnesota, New York, and New Hampshire in a territorial land grab.
我猜印度和日本会抢食中俄土地
委内瑞拉和阿根廷将成为南美洲的一极。
英国和日本会再次处于吞噬北美资源的最佳位置。
可以预见，加拿大会在领土争夺战中把阿拉斯加、密歇根州、佛蒙特州、华盛顿州、爱达荷州、威斯康星州、蒙大拿州、缅因州、明尼苏达州、纽约州和新罕布什尔州都收入囊中。
What if tomorrow we woke up and there are just gaping abysses where the US, China, and Russia were supposed to be?
我们要是早上醒来，发现美国、中国和俄罗斯本该在的地方只是一个巨大的深坑呢?
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
edited
Quite frankly, Mexico and Central / South American countries could never dominate. From a pure resource perspective, these countries SHOULD be rivaling the US in overall prosperity. However, they are basically 3rd world because there are significant deeply ingrained cultural issues which prevent them from succeeding. They've had centuries and multiple revolutions to get it right, but nothing ever really changes. In other words, they may get the territory, but they'd fail to make good use of it just like they failed to make good use of the resources in their own countries. You have to look deeper and look at the milestones they COULD and SHOULD have reached already, and start to really analyze why they didn't.
说实话，墨西哥和中美洲/南美洲国家永远不会占主导地位。从纯资源角度来看，这些国家繁荣程度应该和美国差不多。然而，他们基本上还是成为了第三世界国家，因为它们有严重的、根深蒂固的文化问题阻碍了他们的成功发展。
虽然他们花了几个世纪的时间，进行了多次革命去解决这个问题，但从没做出真正的改变。换句话说，虽然他们可能得到了领土，但他们不会使用，就像他们不会用好自己国家资源一样。对于他们本可以或本应该达到的奋斗目标，你必须更深入地审视，并开始真正分析他们为什么没做到。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Knowing America it was probably annihilated by its own people tbh
说实话，我认为，美国可能是被自己的人民毁掉的
Eena-Rin
The UK, Canada, Australia. With the big three gone the queen owns a big chunk of the world
当然是英国，加拿大，澳大利亚，那三个国家消失后，女王就理所当然地就变成了世界上最大的地主。
I'm British and I feel just the same way. Once the Queen kicks it I don't think there will be much support left for the monarchy.
我是英国人，我也认为。一旦女王挂了，我认为没几个国家还能支持英联邦的存在。
The sun never sets on British Empire because even God is afraid of what would happen after dark
大英是日不落帝国，因为就连上帝都害怕天黑后将会发生的事
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Even though Britain is actually still classed as one of the most powerful countries in the world, a lot of it is to do with trade and diplomacy.
尽管英国事实上仍被列为世界上最强大的国家之一，但这在很大程度上受益于它的贸易和外交手段。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Yeah, and we've pissed away a lot of that soft power with the inexcusable stupidity of brexit.
呵呵，由于英国犯下脱欧这种不可原谅的愚蠢决定，我们的软实力已肉眼可见的大幅下滑。
SonOfMcGee
Lichtenstein holds the record as the only country to ever have a negative casualty rate in war.
In the Austro-Prussian war of 1866, Lichtenstein's army of 80 men was sent to guard a mountain pass. The enemy army never advanced to that point and there was no fighting. When they marched back to Lichtenstein they came back with 81 men because they made a friend.
列支敦士登是唯一一个在战争中士兵损失为负的国家。
在1866年的奥普战争中，列支敦士登派了一个80人军队去守一个山口。不过敌人没去那个地方，仗没打上。当这支军队回到列支敦士登的时候，发现这支80人的军队变成了81人，多出来的那个人，是因为他们在那里交的1个朋友。
Maybe it wasn’t about winning the war, but about the friends we made along the way
他们也许不是为了去打仗，而是为了在路上去找朋友
I hope the friend they made was a cat or a dog or something
我希望他们交的朋友是只猫或狗之类的
lessmiserables
A superpower has to be able to project their power worldwide. That's a combination of military might, economic strength, diplomacy, international experience, and possible nuclear capabilities. Population matters less than people think, although it's not nothing.
The UK and Germany, most likely. Possibly France. The UK and France since they're already on the diplomatic stage (and on the UN Security Council); Germany simply because they would be if it weren't for that small bit of business back in the 40s. They all have strong, healthy economies, dynamic politics, a sizable military that, at the very least, could scale up if needed (although this is largely aided by NATO) and has credibility.
Japan has the economy, but their diplomacy and military are lacking for the world stage. Similar for South Korea.
Israel has too many enemies.
India, Pakistan, and Brazil don't have the organization/political capital to project power. They have too many internal issues.
If it weren't for the UK leaving, the easy answer is simply "The European unx."
一个超级大国必须具备可在世界范围内投射他们力量的能力。这种力量是军事、经济实力、外交、国际经验和可能的核能力的结合。人口多少并没有人们想象的那么重要，尽管没它也不行。
最有可能的是英国和德国。也可能是法国。英法不用说，因为他们已经站在外交舞台之上(还是五常之二);德国不行的原因很简单，他们要不是因为在40年代犯下的战争罪过，他们早就是了。这些国家都拥有强大、健康的经济，政治充满活力，拥有一支规模可观的军队，如果需要的话，他们在之前的基础上迅速扩大(尽管这在很大程度上得到了北约的帮助)，并且具有公信力。
日本有经济，但他们在外交和军事上存在感一般。韩国同理。
以色列就算了，树敌太多。
印度、巴基斯坦和巴西缺乏武力投送能力，政治影响力不足。他们有太多的内部问题。
如果不是英国脱欧，最简单的答案就非“欧盟”莫属了。
If we count the European unx as one, then it already easily ranks among the USA, Russia and China. But it just isn't a single country.
如果我们把欧盟看成一体，那它基本上就能跟美国、俄罗斯和中国这种超级大国平起平坐。但它是由好多国家组成的。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
It's not united either, despite the name. Constant bickering and jostling for supremacy, advantage and resource flow.
可欧盟里的国家也不是一条心，尽管相互间都是盟国关系，可在霸权、发展、和资源分配上，相互间也是争的头破血流。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
The EU could truly be a superpower in its own right if it weren't constantly bickering with itself.
要是欧盟国家之间不吵不闹，团结一心，它完全可以凭借一己之力成为一个真正的超级大国的。
natural resources are a huge issue with literally every country except the 3 in the OP. Mindset, drive and will are only important once you have the essentials. This is what (in part) drove WW2.
除了上述那三个大国，对其他每个国家来说，自然资源都是一个大问题。只有在此基础上，心态、动力和意志才具有决定性。这也是二战打起来的(部分)原因。
Canada has the resources, but not the population or desire.
Team up Canada with another country, and you have some serious potential.
加拿大有资源，但人口少，还没那个心思。加拿大要是能和某个国家联合起来，潜力就大了
Japan (and South Korea too) actually has a pretty built up military and would probably be the super power in the east, with the UK or Germany being the power in the West.
Japan is 9th and SK is 10th in the world for military spending.
Reason I wouldn't consider South Korea is cause they have a pretty big issue to deal with to their North.
日本(还有韩国)实际上拥有相当强大的军事力量，很可能成为东方的超级大国，而英国或德国则是西方的强国。日本和韩国的军费开支分别排在世界第9位和第10位。
不考虑韩国的原因是他们和它北边的兄弟之间有个相当麻烦的问题需要解决。
France has subs and four aircraft carriers, so they can project power worldwide. even counting the UK, France is probably the prominent European military power.
法国有潜艇和四艘航母，所以他们有能力向世界各地投射力量。即使算上英国，法国也可能是欧洲最重要的军事强国。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Right France has the strongest military and is part of the EU unlike the U.K. They aren't getting enough credit in here.
法国有最强大的军队，而且是欧盟的一部分，不像英国。在这里都没人敢相信他们。
A superpower has to be able to project their power worldwide
Based on this definition, the US is the ONLY superpower in the world. We are unique among the three suggested in the original question in that we are able to project naval force in two directions at once. We have access to both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans from our mainland. China only has access to the Pacific, and Russia's access to the Atlantic requires them to sail out of the Black Sea, which can be (and currently IS) closed off by Turkey, or the Baltic, which can also be effectively closed off by the Royal Navy and it's NATO partners.
A navy is the most effective way to move soldiers and their gear from one place to another. China's going to have a hard time flying a million soldiers and their gear and combat equipment from point A to point B. It can be done, but airspace can be closed, and it takes a TON of planes to move that volume of men and machines. Putting them on boats generally makes a lot more sense.
能够在世界范围内投射本国力量是成为一个超级大国的基础。
按照这个标准，美国是世界上唯一的超级大国。在之前提到三个前提条件中，我们的独特之处在于，我们能够同时向两个方向部署海军力量。我们可以从大西洋和太平洋两面出击。而中国只有太平洋这一条海上通道，俄罗斯进入大西洋的通道只有黑海，而黑海可以被土耳其(目前是IS)封锁，波罗的海也可以被英国皇家海军和它的北约伙伴封锁住。
Even without the UK the answer is still “the EU”
即使没有英国，答案还是“欧盟”。
You're probably right, although the UK having a UN Sec Council vote complicates things, which is largely why (along with its global presence) it would be hard to exclude them.
你可能是对的，由于英国是五常之一，在联合国安理会有否决权，因此会让事情变得复杂，大概率(加上它的全球存在)很难把他们排除在外。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
I was thinking Germany too.
我猜德国也能有机会
I'm not sure the UK can recapture their glory. That doesn't really happen, at least not inside of a century or two while you still have old people complaining about how their country is in decline. If you can hold out for 500-2000 years with a continuous locally grounded culture (e.g. China) then maybe.
I was going to say Germany, definitely. You make a good point about India but I still think they'd be on the docket at least as a competitor purely due to population.
我不觉得英国是否能重拾辉煌。机会不大，至少不会在一两个世纪内发生，你们老一辈人总在纠结自己国家是如何衰落。如果你能保持500-2000年的本土文化(比如像中国那样)，那么也许还有这个可能。
我认为德国机会很大。对于看好印度，但在我看来，纯粹从人口角度出发，他们至少会成为竞争对手。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Without the US, China, and Russia, interesting geopolitical situations would arise.
First the big players in Asia, South Korea would have their hands full dealing with North Korea, who's been kept in check by US power projection on one hand, and on the other hand they're kept on life support by China supplying them enough aid to just barely hold on. So either they go to war with South Korea before they collapse, or they collapse and mass refugee flood into South Korea, or they try to expand into what's left of China. All 3 are bad for South Korea, so they won't be able to make any big moves until that situation is solved.
Next, in India is in the same boat with Pakistan. With out backing from both China and the US, Pakistan stands little chance against India, so they might get desperate and try something before India is prepared. Time is on India's side, not theirs, so India will have their hands full with a very unfriendly and desperate nuclear power.
That leaves Japan. Without America defending them, they'll rearm for self protection and then expand into China. Since both India and South Korea are busy, there's really no one to challenge them. Taiwan might have a more legitimate claim but they're no match for Japan in terms of population, economics, and manufacturing. So Japan is the super power in the East
In North America, Canada is poised to fill the power vacuum left by the US, and Mexico might be able to reclaim old territories taken from them in the past, but Canada is in a much more powerful position and will take the lion's and become
In Europe, with the US, China, and Russia gone, there's no geopolitical power to keep them united. By banding together, they have more negotiation and military power. Without the superpowers, the big players like France, Germany, and UK might think it'll be more beneficial to leave the EU and make some power plays on the global stage, especially rebuilding in what's left of the US, China, and Russia (like the Marshal project the US took part in that boosted the US post war economy). The big 3 will build their own alliances in Europe and create power blocks, France to the west and Germany to the East. The remaining smaller countries might band together more tightly and form their own alliance. However, the former Soviet states or the Nordic countries will divvy up parts of Russia.
Latin American countries will experience mass civil unrest since their two large trading partners are just gone. Poor policies and corruption will prevent them from effectively adapting to this change, eventually lead to political upheaval and even civil wars. From the chaos, more authoritarian governments might arise, but most likely just as corrupt.
Africa will probably keep being Africa.
要是美中俄消失了，全球地缘政治局势将会出现十分有趣的变化。
首先，作为亚洲的大玩家，韩国先赶紧处理朝鲜问题，朝鲜一方面受驻韩美军的制约，另一方面，靠中国足够的援助续命。所以，朝鲜要么在崩溃前与韩国开打，要么坐以待毙，之后大批难民涌入韩国，要么他们扩张到中国消失后留下的地方。中美俄这三个国家都对韩国不利，所以在朝韩问题在没解决之前，他们俩谁也不敢有大动作。
其次，印度和巴基斯坦也是一样。没有中国和美国的支持，巴基斯坦几乎没有对抗印度的机会，所以他们可能变得绝望，有可能在印度准备好之前再努力一下。时间在印度这一边，而不是在巴基斯坦，所以印度会先把精力扑在一个非常不友好且绝望的核国家之上。
至于日本。没了美国的制约，日本会重新武装起来，然后扩张到中国。由于印度和韩国都很忙，真的没人会去挑战他们。中国台湾可能有更合理的主张，但他们在人口、经济和制造业方面都照比日本差远了。所以日本最可能成为新的东方超级大国
在北美,加拿大将填补美国消失后所留下的权力真空,墨西哥可以收复以前被美国占领的领土,但加拿大凭暨地利的优势而成为北美新一代霸主。
对于欧洲，由于没了美、中、俄地缘政治的影响，欧盟内国家也失去了凝聚力。不过他们通过抱团，令他们拥有了更多的谈判和军事力量。没有超级大国的制约,像法、德、英国将变身大玩家，各自整合领导欧盟部分国家，在全球发挥影响力,尤其在瓜分重建那三个国家消失后的土地。法、德、英这三大新巨头将在欧洲建立他们自己的联盟，并形成新的势力集团，法国在西方，德国在东方。剩下的小国可能会抱得更紧一些，形成新的独立联盟。然而，前苏联国家或北欧国家将瓜分俄罗斯的部分领土。
拉丁美洲国家将经历大规模的内乱，因为他们的两个主要贸易伙伴没了。糟糕的政策和腐败将阻止他们有效地适应这种变化，最终导致政治动荡，甚至内战。在这场混乱中，可能会出现更多的独裁政府，更多的腐败。
非洲很可能会一直是非洲，没有变化。
Would the EU exist in a world without Russia uniting them out of fear and the US uniting them out of a need to be "the good guys of the West" differentiating themselves from the US? I think that without Superpowers, the European powers would be at each others throats again.
欧盟要是没了俄罗斯的威胁，也没了想成为“西方的好人”的美国，他们还能团结一心，继续存在吗?我认为，要是没了超级大国，欧洲列强之间将再次打成一团。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Don’t forget, must have nuclear arms ready, not just capabilities
不要忘了，除了能力之外，核武器必须要有。
Sorry about this but definitely not Germany, they have the worst military in the EU
德国就算了，他们的军队是欧盟国家里最烂的。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
If the US, Russia, and China disappeared the UK would immediately knock on the EU's door and say, "Can I pwease be back in your cwub?"
要是美、俄、中消失了，英国会立马跑过来敲欧盟的大门，说:“我能不能回到你的怀抱?”
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
spaghettimiilk
Heavy british breathing
英国会激动的要死的
Someone probably once asked who would be a superpower if the British Empire ceased to exist.
以前也有人问，要是大英帝国不复存在了，谁将成为超级大国。
OR conversely...
Heavy German Breathing
Wanting to relive some of their glory days!
或是相反
德国一想到重铸昔日辉煌!也将激动的不要不要的
Britain, and France would re-emerge, and immediately start killing each other.
英法将会再次崛起，但转头就拔刀相向，掐起来。
Bastianator
Somebody you'd never expect...
一个令你意想不到的国家…
The Spanish Inquisition?
西班牙宗教法庭？？？
Vegetable-Double
Indias too corrupt and divided. They’d probably have a religious civil war before they could start taking over other countries.
印度国内腐败、分歧又大。在他们开始接管其他国家之前，他们可能先会打一场宗教内战。
Not a single chance, even in a hundred years.
即使一百年也没啥有机会。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
While not a guarantee of world power status, India has nukes and a huge population, a growing economy, and a conventional military that’s seen war fairly recently.
The nukes make India my first guess. Good soft power around the Indian Ocean and World in general help too.
Japan would suffer from aging and lack of hard power projection, although I can’t say India is too great at a global military either.
Japan is a good second contender for me with their 100M+ population, economy with world-class technology, and ability to develop nukes if they wanted to (they choose not to). Soft power isn’t overwhelming but definitely there. Biggest long-term advantage over India would be internal cohesion.
虽然印度可能达不到世界强国的水准，但它有核武器、人口众多、不断增长的经济和近些年攒下战争经验的传统军队。
我第一个想法是核武器成就了印度。他们在印度洋区域和世界上有着不错的的软实力，助益颇多。
日本的短板在于人口老龄化和缺乏硬实力投射手段，尽管我也不能说印度在全球军事上伟大。
个人认为，日本是第二有力竞争者，其国家拥有1亿多人口，世界一流技术的经济，如果他们想的话，就可以开发拥有核武器。软实力不是压倒性的，但绝对是压倒性的。相对于印度的最大长期优势将是内部凝聚力。
Russia is hardly a superpower anymore. They rank 11th in GDP below Italy, Canada, and South Korea. Russia has a lower GDP than Texas
Japan, Germany, UK and India are the next highest GDPs in the world behind US and China. India is quickly rising through the ranks and may overtake UK soon.
俄罗斯已经不再算是超级大国。他们GDP世界排名都已经排到第11位了，落后于意大利、加拿大和韩国。俄罗斯的GDP比美国德州还低
日本、德国、英国和印度是仅次于美国和中国的GDP第二高的国家。印度正在迅速崛起，其GDP可能很快就会超过英国。
Seriously, this question reads like “If Citizen Kane, Scary Movie 4, and The Godfather had never been made, what would the new greatest movies of all time be?”
说真的，这个问题读起来就像“要是没有《公民凯恩》、《惊声尖笑4》和《教父》这几部电影，那么有史以来最伟大的新电影会是什么呢?”
Russia isn't a communist state anymore, they are a capitalist oligarchy. And while GDP isn't the only factor in determining a "superpower", it's definitely the biggest factor. A superpower nation is one that has influence over other nations. Money is influence. The US is a superpower not because our democracy is a shining beacon that the rest of the world looks up to, or even because our military is the biggest. The US is a superpower because so many of the world's largest companies are based in the US. Half the world owns an IPhone, drinks coca cola, and watches Disney movies. When the US changes policies that effects those companies, the rest of the world notices in their daily lives. That's why so many other countries are interested in US politics and economy, because down the line it eventually effects them.
俄罗斯早已不是一个共产主义国家了，现在他已变成一个资本主义寡头国家。虽然GDP不是决定是否是 “超级大国”的唯一因素，但这绝对是必要条件。超级大国是指可以对其他国家施加影响力的国家。资本就是影响力。美国之所以成为超级大国，并不是因为我们的民主制度是世界其他国家敬仰的灯塔，甚至也不是因为美国军队最强大。美国之所以是一个超级大国，是因为世界上许多最大的公司都设在美国。世界上有一半的人拥有IPhone，喝可口可乐，看迪斯尼电影。当美国改变影响这些公司的政策时，就会影响世界国家的民生，引起大家关注。这就是为什么那么多其他国家对美国政治和经济感兴趣，因为这些东西最终会影响到他们。
中国、德国、日本和英国也属于这一情况。当中国在经济政策上有所改变时，世界其他国家都会有所紧张。俄罗斯真的只有石油储备来维持他们的发展和竞争，但随着绿色能源的兴起，他们正在失去这种影响力。在能源领域之外，若俄罗斯出现什么改变，将不会对美国、中国、巴西、澳大利亚或非洲的任何国家造成太大影响。
Japan would be the economic powerhouse while India would have the most powerful military.
日本将成为经济强国，而印度将拥有最强大的军事力量。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
I dont think Russia and China are superpowers
there is 1 and thats the US
China lacks the soft power. Much of the Western world isnt very sympathetic to it. Russia struggles to defeat weak neighbors and again lacks the same thing as China. China is also untested.
Germany has some soft power but weak military reach, weak military in general.
Maybe the UK. Its a lesser version of the US. We live in a world hugely influenced by the English language so the cultural advantage is immense. And they have global military reach.
我不认为中俄这两个国家是超级大国
超级大国只有一个，那就是美国
中国缺少软实力。西方世界的很多人对她无感。俄罗斯总爱欺负弱小的邻国，软实力影响跟中国差不多。中国也没有经受过考验。德国有一些软实力，但军事力量薄弱，总的来说军力不足。大概率应该是英国。它就像小号的美国。我们生活在一个深受英语影响的世界，所以英国文化优势巨大。而且他们还拥有全球军事影响力。