为什么埃及强烈反对埃塞俄比亚建造复兴大坝？
Why is Egypt strongly opposed against the Ethiopian Great Renaissance Dam?
译文简介
埃及并不反对复兴大坝计划。埃及担心的是在达成具有法律约束力的协议之前，单方面在短时间内填筑大坝会造成灾难性的后果，从而无法保障所有人的水权。
正文翻译
Why is Egypt strongly opposed against the Ethiopian Great Renaissance Dam?
为什么埃及强烈反对埃塞俄比亚建造复兴大坝？
为什么埃及强烈反对埃塞俄比亚建造复兴大坝？
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, lives in Alexandria, Egypt
Egypt doesn't oppose the GERD. Egypt fears the catastrophic consequences of unilaterally filling the dam in a short span of time before reaching a legally binding agreement that would safeguard the water rights of everyone.
The country is already suffering from a severe water scarcity and an annual water deficit of 7 billion cubic metres.[1]
Desert makes up to 96% of Egypt's total area with 95% of the population living in the Nile Valley and Delta, an area that forms a grand total of only 3.5% of the country's total land area.
The Nile is the life artery of Egypt. Without it, we fall into oblivion. All we ask for is the signing of an agreement that would regulate the operation and management of the dam so that no one gets harmed.
Is that hard to comprehend?
Egypt from the space - photo by NASA
, 住在埃及亚历山大市
埃及并不反对复兴大坝计划。埃及担心的是在达成具有法律约束力的协议之前，单方面在短时间内填筑大坝会造成灾难性的后果，从而无法保障所有人的水权。
这个国家已经严重缺水，每年缺水70亿立方米[1]。
沙漠占埃及总面积的96%，95%的人口生活在尼罗河谷和三角洲，而这一地区总共只占该国土地总面积的3.5%。
尼罗河是埃及的生命动脉。没有它，我们就会陷入被遗忘的境地。我们所要求的是签署一项协议，以规范大坝的运行和管理，使任何人都不会受到伤害。
这很难理解吗？
从太空看埃及--图片来自美国国家航空航天局
Egypt should have opposed it though. Agreements are just a piece of paper. Unfortunately, It’s too late.
但埃及应该反对它。协定只是一纸空文。不幸的是，这已经太晚了。
They can't just break agreements like that and get away with it. That's why Ethiopia is stalling and refuses to negotiate in good faith.
But I didn't expect anything less from someone like Abiy Ahmed.
他们不能就这样破坏协议然后逃脱。这就是为什么埃塞俄比亚在拖延时间，拒绝真诚地进行谈判。
但我不指望像阿比-艾哈迈德（埃塞俄比亚总统）这样的人能做出什么好事。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
If Egyptians don't introduce a form of birthrate limitation, any issue is just postponed. Egypt is not designed for 100+ million people.
如果埃及人不引入一种限制出生率的方法，任何问题的爆发都只是被推迟罢了。埃及根本容纳不下一亿多人。
That's the part that no one ever talks about
这是没有人谈论过的部分
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
The Egyptian state is powerful but it's not C powerful. They could just increase access to planned parenthood across the nation.
That said the most effective way to reduce the birthrate is to do the simple (but difficult) things.
Those are improving education across the all levels including for girls, improving the economy by moving up the value chain, and increasing urban rate since it's only about 45% atm.
埃及这个国家很强大，但没有中国强大。他们可以在全国范围内施行计划生育。
尽管如此，降低出生率的最有效方法是做一些简单（但困难）的事情。
这就是改善包括女孩在内的各级教育，通过提升价值链来改善经济，以及提高城市率，因为目前城市率只有45%左右。
As an Ethiopian i think Egypt have a legitimate concern. I would have Feared if i were an Egyptian too. I used to think you guys were completely unreasonable about it but the more i left nationalist thoughts i understand you. But one thing is we don't know what the agreement you are talking about contains inside. It might have some issues that made our leaders worry about signing it. No Ethiopian would want to hurt Egyptians. And i hope more peacefull negotiations occur about the filling of the dam.
作为一个埃塞俄比亚人，我认为埃及的担忧很合理。如果我是埃及人，我也会感到害怕。我曾经认为你们在这方面完全不讲道理，但我越是离开民族主义思想，就越能理解你们。但有一点是，我们不知道你们所说的协议里面包含什么内容。它可能有一些问题，使我们的领导人对签署它感到担心。没有埃塞俄比亚人想伤害埃及人。我希望在填埋大坝的问题上能有更多和平的谈判。
It is very hard. The dam is built by Ethiopians, with Ethiopian money, in Ethiopian land, on an Ethiopian river of Abbay (Blue nile in English).
Why did we build the dam in the first place if we wanted an enemy country to tell us how to use it.
I am hopeful that there will not be any kind of agreement in the future.
这是很难的。大坝是由埃塞俄比亚人用埃塞俄比亚的钱在埃塞俄比亚的土地上，在埃塞俄比亚的阿贝河（英语为Blue nile‘青尼罗河’）上建造的。
如果我们想让一个敌国来告诉我们如何使用大坝，那么我们首先要问为什么要建造大坝。
我希望将来不会存在任何形式的协议。
What makes you think Egypt is an enemy of Ethiopia?
你为什么认为埃及是埃塞俄比亚的敌人？
Egypt's historical actions towards Ethiopia (failed attempts of invasion in the 19th century is one example).
It supports groups against the government of Ethiopia and separatist groups which want to fracture the country. It did this all the time between 20th and 21th centuries:
All this because it wants to monopolize the river. This intention alone makes Egypt natural enemy of Ethiopia.
埃及对埃塞俄比亚的历史行动（19世纪的入侵企图失败就是一个例子）。
它支持反对埃塞俄比亚政府的团体和想要分裂国家的分离主义团体。在20世纪和21世纪之间，它一直在这样做。
所有这些都是因为它想垄断这条河流。仅仅这一意图就使埃及成为埃塞俄比亚的天敌。
Britain attacked Egypt three times in the 19th and 20th century. Turkey occupied it for 300 years. France too has a history of waging wars against Egypt as well. Are any of these countries actually an enemy of Egypt nowadays? Nope. Not even Israel is our enemy.
Egypt doesn't want to “monopolise” the river. The dam threatens Egypt and Ethiopia refuses to negotiate.
So you're using an unidentified picture to support the claim that Egypt supported rebel groups as a “proof” that Egypt is an enemy of Ethiopia? Cmon!
英国在19世纪和20世纪三次进攻埃及。土耳其占领了它300年。法国也有对埃及发动战争的历史。这些国家中的任何一个现在还是埃及的敌人吗？不是。甚至以色列也不是我们的敌人。
埃及并不想"垄断"这条河。大坝威胁到埃及，埃塞俄比亚拒绝谈判。
所以你用一张不明身份的照片来支持你埃及支持叛乱团体的说法，作为埃及是埃塞俄比亚敌人的"证据"？得了吧!
Nope. Egypt can desalinize the Mediterranean sea and use its water which is better than crying to the world that another country's property is their ‘lifeline'.
This dam is not open for negotiations with anybody. Ethiopian government know that, which is why they are evading negotiations and deals. They are not prepared for the public outcry they would face back home if they do that. Ethiopian government has lost the support of several sections of the soicety already. Some people already consider Abiy as a traitor since the Tigray war stopped.
This dam is built with the money of people who can not eat three times a day. So we have every right to use it completely to our benefit. Remember that.
The picture is not an unidentified picture. Everybody here knows Egypt used to support a secessionist military group called OLF and gave refuge to its leaders.
Risk of military confrontation have abated since Ethiopia achieved second filling of the dam. Now Egypt can only watch when Ethiopia uses electricity generated from the dam to become a strong country.
不对。埃及可以淡化地中海并使用它的水，这比向世界哭诉另一个国家的财产是他们的'生命线'要好。
这座大坝是不允许与任何人谈判的。埃塞俄比亚政府知道这一点，这就是为什么他们在避免谈判和交易。他们还没有准备好，如果他们敢这样做，他们在国内将面临公众强烈的抗议。埃塞俄比亚政府已经失去了社会上一些人的支持。自从提格雷战争停止以来，有些人已经将阿比视为叛徒。
这座大坝是用那些一天都吃不上三次饭的人的钱建造的。所以我们完全有权利将其用于我们的利益。请记住这一点。
这张照片并不是一张未经确认的照片。这里的每个人都知道埃及曾经支持一个名为奥罗莫的分离主义军事团体，并为其领导人提供庇护。
自从埃塞俄比亚实现了大坝的第二次填筑后，军事对抗的风险已经减弱。现在埃及只能看着埃塞俄比亚利用大坝产生的电力成为一个强大的国家。
It's unfortunate that this kind of tribal mentality is prent in Africa. Remember, Europe only advanced when they put their differences aside and worked together.
It's not just Egypt that is threatened by the dam. Sudan shares our concerns as well. We won't wait forever. War would be disastrous for everyone including Ethiopia.
Egypt didn't support rebel groups. Ethiopia claims so but failed to provide credible evidence to back such claims.
The second “filling” of the dam wasn't complete. Ethiopia didn't even come close to it's target.
Ethiopia's aggressive rhetoric won't do her any good when the combined forces of Egypt and Sudan attack. And remember, the dam is just across the borders from Sudan, we don't even have to destroy it. Capturing it and the surrounding areas would suffice. That won't be a problem considering the poor performance of Ethiopia's army against the TPLF.
这种部落心态在非洲盛行是很不幸的。请记住，欧洲在搁置分歧、共同合作的时候才会进步。
受到大坝威胁的不仅仅是埃及。苏丹也和我们一样关注。我们不会永远等待。战争对包括埃塞俄比亚在内的所有人来说都是灾难性的。
埃及并没有支持反叛组织。埃塞俄比亚这样声称，但未能提供可信的证据来支持这种说法。
大坝的第二次"填充"并没有完成。埃塞俄比亚甚至没有接近它的目标。
当埃及和苏丹的联合部队进攻时，埃塞俄比亚的咄咄逼人的言辞对她没有任何好处。记住，大坝就在苏丹的边界对面，我们甚至不需要摧毁它。只要占领它和周边地区就足够了。考虑到埃塞俄比亚军队在对抗提格雷人阵时的糟糕表现，这不会是一个问题。
Hopefully Egypt and Sudan won't attack and there will not be no war. Ethiopia is a peaceful country and is hopeful that the Nile dam dispute won't lead to a conflict.
However, if they attack, I am sure nobody in Ethiopia will be afraid of them.
My friend, war is a traditional dance for the majority of Ethiopian people. There is no rural area in Ethiopia where a household does not have at least one AK. Even the tribes of the south that walk around nude have AK.
At the age of thirteen every rural kid in Ethiopia will have some competence in using the rifle. In some communities like the Afar infants learn to fire a gun as early as two or three years (when they start walking).
That is why the Tigray war become very hard as the Ethiopian government failed to disarm the population. It is not because the Ethiopian army is weak. All the farmers there rebelled against the government. How can you fight with all of a population.
So if Egypt or Sudan decided to solve the dispute with armed force, ultimately it will be disastrous for Egypt and Sudan and not Ethiopia since they are facing the wrath of not just the Ethiopian army, but that of 100 million people. Egypt and Sudan will have their armies annihilated if they chose war with us.
Ethiopia is willing to solve the dispute without resorting to unnecessary binding agreements. However I believe she is willing to get advice and consider the needs of Sudan and Egypt when filling the dam.
希望埃及和苏丹不会进攻，不会发生战争。埃塞俄比亚是一个和平国家，我希望尼罗河大坝争端不会导致冲突。
但是，如果他们进攻，我相信在埃塞俄比亚，没有人会害怕他们。
我的朋友，战争是大多数埃塞俄比亚人的传统手艺。在埃塞俄比亚的农村地区，没有哪一个家庭没有至少一支AK枪。甚至南方那些裸体走来走去的部落也有AK。
埃塞俄比亚的每个农村孩子在13岁时都会有一些使用步枪的能力。在一些社区，如阿法尔族，婴儿早在两三岁时就学会了开枪（当他们开始走路时）。
这就是为什么提格雷的战争变得非常艰难，因为埃塞俄比亚政府未能解除民众的武装。这并不是因为埃塞俄比亚的军队很弱。那里所有的农民都在反抗政府。你怎么能和所有的人打仗呢。
因此，如果埃及或苏丹决定用武力解决争端，最终对埃及和苏丹而不是埃塞俄比亚来说是灾难性的，因为他们面临的不仅仅是埃塞俄比亚军队的愤怒，而是1亿人的愤怒。如果埃及和苏丹选择与我们开战，他们的军队将被歼灭。
埃塞俄比亚愿意在不诉诸于不必要的约束性协议的情况下解决争端。而且我相信她愿意在填筑大坝时听取意见并考虑苏丹和埃及的需要。
They will attack if they are left with no other choice. Hopefully things won't go that far.
Greetings.
如果他们别无选择，就会发动攻击。希望事情不会走到那一步。
祝安。
it’s not a case of an ”enemy” telling Ethiopia what to do. It’s case of the Nile being indispensable to Egypt. All that the Egyptians are asking for is that the rate at which the dam fills up does not affect them catastrophically. Conflict between Ethiopia and Egypt over this matter is not necessary as long as each side recognizes the existential realities the other faces and acts according. Conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia will affect nearly 220 million people. And is easily avoidable with cool heads on both sides. A satisfactory agreement between the two is in the interests of both sides.
这不是一个“敌人”告诉埃塞俄比亚该做什么的情况。尼罗河对埃及来说是不可或缺的。埃及人所要求的只是大坝填满的速度不会对他们造成灾难性的影响。埃塞俄比亚和埃及之间没有必要在这个问题上发生冲突，只要双方都能认识到对方所面临的生存现实，并按此行事。埃及和埃塞俄比亚之间的冲突将影响近 2.2 亿人。而这是很容易避免的，只要两边都有冷静的头脑。双方达成满意的协议符合双方的利益。
Ethiopia may consider Egypt's needs and talk with Egypt out of good will if she has to. Ethiopia is a country with good manners. However, signing written agreement that dictates the usage of the dam is equivalent to ceding Ethiopia's sovereignty.
The most important thing you have to understand is that the dam does not significantly impact Egypt at whatever rate it is filled. Egypt just wants to monopolize the river; what this guy who wrote this answer aims to is to shift the blame on Ethiopia.
埃塞俄比亚可以考虑埃及的需要，如果有必要的话，可以出于善意与埃及对话。埃塞俄比亚是一个很有礼貌的国家。但是，签署规定大坝用途的书面协议，就等于放弃了埃塞俄比亚的主权。
你必须明白的最重要的一点是，无论大坝以何种速度填满，都不会对埃及产生重大影响。埃及只是想垄断河流；写这个答案的人的目的是把责任推给埃塞俄比亚。
An agreement to regulate the flow of water does not impact on Ethiopia’s sovereignty at all. Riparian agreements are as old as civilisation itself. Hammurabi was one of the first people in recorded history to make these laws and they have been with us for thousands of years. No person or country can use his or it’s own property in such a way that it negatively impacts another person or nation. My neighbour cannot do what he likes with his drainage system. Because his drainage system affects my property. And it’s the same with international river systems. The Nile is the life blood of Egypt. They will defend it with everything they have. And they would be right to do so. But it is totally unnecessary for things to come to this. Both sides can and must sit down and work out a sensible and scientifically sound agreement. For both country’s sake’s.
调节水流的协议根本不影响埃塞俄比亚的主权。河岸协议与文明本身一样古老。汉谟拉比是有史以来最早制定这些法律的人之一，它们已经伴随我们几千年了。任何个人或国家都不能以对另一个人或国家产生负面影响的方式使用自己的财产。我的邻居不能对他的排水系统为所欲为。因为他的排水系统会影响到我的财产。而国际河流系统也是如此。尼罗河是埃及的命脉。他们将竭尽全力保卫它。而且他们有权这么做。但事情发展到这一步是完全没有必要的。双方可以而且必须坐下来，制定出一个合理的、有科学依据的协议。为了两个国家的利益。
It is certainly not a cessation of Ethiopian sovereignty. As the other user pointed out, these sorts of agreements exist between upper and lower riparian states everywhere. Even India and Pakistan were able to hammer out the Indus Water Treaty in 1960 about sharing the waters of the Indus and its tributaries. The agreement has stood through four wars and I don't think anybody would say that it was the end of Indian sovereignty. How much more bitter can Egyptian-Ethiopian relations be that you two cannot share one river?
这当然不是埃塞俄比亚主权的终结。正如另一位网友所指出的，这种协议在任何地方的上游和下游国家之间都存在。甚至印度和巴基斯坦也能在1960年达成印度河水条约，分享印度河及其支流的水。该协议经历了四次战争，我不认为有人会说这是印度主权的终结。还有什么会比你们两个不能共享一条河导致的埃及和埃塞俄比亚的关系更痛苦？
Built by Ethiopians with a little help…isn't the main contractor an Italian company? Didn't China contribute regarding the turbines?
埃塞俄比亚人是在有一些外部帮助下建造的......主要承包商不是意大利公司吗？中国在涡轮机方面没有贡献吗？
I don't know anything about China contributing for the turbines.
The Italian contractors (Salini) are paid by the Ethiopian government.
我不知道任何关于中国为涡轮机出力的事情。
意大利的承包商（萨利尼）是由埃塞俄比亚政府支付费用请来的。
Sure, I did not question with Ethiopian money, I just find made by Ethiopians not completely true. Anyway, best wishes for the success of this project and of Ethiopia.
当然，我没有质疑埃塞俄比亚的钱，我只是觉得埃塞俄比亚人做的不完全正确。无论如何，祝愿这个项目和埃塞俄比亚的成功。
Why doesn't the the country with the second strongest military in the Middle East after Israel, not send a couple of f-18's and knock this stupidly named structure out. This way they would guarantee their long term survival as a country, AND, help prevent a massive ecological disaster from happening
为什么在中东拥有仅次于以色列的第二大军事力量的国家不派几架F-18战斗机把这个名字愚蠢的建筑打掉呢？这样他们就能保证他们作为一个国家的长期生存，并且可以防止大规模的生态灾难发生。
Maybe because diplomacy is better than war? Then lose credibility on the international stage as a peaceful nation? Are they going to do this each time they finish building a new one? Doesn’t sound like a great idea especially with neighbors like Israel who would find it concerning.
可能是因为外交手段比战争好？以及在国际舞台上失去作为一个和平国家的可信度的风险？他们每次建完一个新的都要这样做一次吗？这听起来不是一个好主意，尤其是表现得像以色列这样的邻国，他们会觉得这很令人担忧。
True, but also, they'd have to march through Sudan to get there.
是的，而且他们的军队必须通过苏丹才能到达那里。
They can use fighter jets or if they can get a pass from Sudan to let them in, assuming they are friendly
他们可以使用战斗机，或者如果假设他们是友好的，他们能得到苏丹的许可，让他们进入。
That seems to be the most probable route, assuming it comes to that.
这似乎是最有可能的做法，假设事情发展到这一步的话。
Ethiopia is 4000kms away from Cairo, have fun projecting that power.
埃塞俄比亚离开罗有4000公里远，祝你在投射这种力量时愉快。
, MA (Cantab) MSc, MBA, PhD from University of Cambridge
A look at a map would answer your question. Egypt is concerned that the dam will give Ethiopia control over the flow of water in the Nile. As Egypt depends on the Nile for its water supply, that is a near-existential threat to Egypt.
Sudan is concerned about the dam for the same reason.
剑桥大学硕士（Cantab），硕士，MBA，博士。
看一下地图就能回答你的问题。埃及担心大坝会让埃塞俄比亚控制尼罗河的水流量。由于埃及依赖尼罗河水的供应，这对埃及来说是一个近乎生存的威胁。
苏丹也因为同样的原因对大坝表示担忧。
My opinion is rather than opposing Ethiopian acts over the Nile River Egypt should Support and participate in Environmental pRotection activities to get sufficient and Continuous flow of water throughout the year. In a return, this brings Cooperation and development options for both countries and regional security. Otherwise participating in Egypt in the wrong activities in a military or creating conspiracy to sponsor Terrorism and Ethnical disputes in the long term impact Egypt itself. The green Future solution is cooperation development and green initiative f Nile basin, particularly the Upper part.
我的观点是，埃及不应该反对埃塞俄比亚在尼罗河上的行为，而是应该支持和参与环境保护活动，以获得全年充足和持续的水流量。作为回报，这将为两国带来合作和发展的选择，以及区域安全。否则，参与埃及在军事上的错误活动或制造阴谋来赞助恐怖主义和民族争端，从长远来看会影响埃及本身。绿色的未来解决方案是符合尼罗河流域的合作发展和绿色倡议，特别是上游地区。
Cooperation and ensuring regional security would probably exclude building a dam that poses a near-existential threat to two downstream countries without guaranteeing the water supply to those two countries.
Ethiopia is not an innocent party in this dispute.
合作和确保地区安全的措施可能也应该排除在不保证对两个下游国家的供水的情况下建造一个对这两个国家构成近乎生存威胁的大坝。
在这场争端中，埃塞俄比亚不是一个无辜的一方。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Ethiopia desires peace and cooperation, but only 35% of Ethiopia now has electricity, which the dam will change for the good for Ethiopia, and Egypt has 95% electrical coverage for their country. Let’s see the real motivation as development for an underdeveloped country that is trying hard to move into the 21st century but is being insulted for trying to do so???
埃塞俄比亚渴望和平与合作，但埃塞俄比亚现在只有 35% 的地区有电，大坝将为埃塞俄比亚带来好处，而埃及的电力覆盖率为 95%。让我们把这件事真正的动机看作是一个不发达国家正在努力进入 21 世纪的发展，但却因为试图这样做而受到侮辱？？？
If Ethiopia desired peace and cooperation, it should have gone about this project in a very different way, reaching agreements with the downstream countries that rely on the Nile.
如果埃塞俄比亚渴望和平与合作，它应该以一种非常不同的方式来处理这个项目，应该依赖尼罗河的下游国家达成协议来推进。
Interesting parallels can be drawn about water disputes and fights between the States in the United States over water use from their major rivers. Water use and flows are serious issues in the United States.
关于美国各州之间因其主要河流的用水而产生的水纠纷和争斗，可以得出有趣的相似之处。在美国，水的使用和流量是很严重的问题。
I think For Us Egypt should participate in Green initiative of to get sufficient flow of water to get from the Nile. Otherwise, Egypt should stop expecting milk without feeding the cow.
我认为对于我们来说，埃及应该参与从尼罗河获得足够的水流量的绿色倡议。否则，埃及应该停止期待牛奶产奶却又不喂牛。
The Leftist mindset = Egypt we will let you die of thirst unless you follow our Agenda.
Once the Ethiopian Dam is full the water will overflow and will reach Egypt. You cannot permanently stop the flow of the mighty Nile River. The Egyptians is only concerned that in water scarce times they will not receive enough water.
左派心态=‘埃及，我们会让你渴死，除非你遵循我们的议程。’
一旦埃塞俄比亚大坝满了，水就会溢出来，到达埃及。你无法永久地阻止强大的尼罗河的流动。埃及人只是担心在缺水的时候，他们会得不到足够的水。
, Retired Medical Doctor ( Internal Medicine and Geriatrics)
The Egyptians fear that the damming of the major Nile tributary in Ethiopia will deprive Egypt’s Nile of water. It is the classic problem of any dam-who benefits and who loses. Neighbors usually find a way to work it out, though wars have indeed occurred over that issue.
, 退休医生（内科和老年病学）。
埃及人担心在埃塞俄比亚的主要尼罗河支流上建坝会剥夺埃及的尼罗河水。这是任何一个水坝都会发生的经典问题--谁受益，谁损失。邻居们通常会想办法解决这个问题，尽管在这个问题上确实也发生过战争。
, lives in Egypt
Largely because since it is upstream from Egypt on the Nile, it would give Ethiopia unprecedented control over the economic survivability of Egypt, and thus power over its decisions politically.
, 住在埃及
主要是因为它位于埃及的尼罗河上游，这将使埃塞俄比亚对埃及的经济生存能力有空前的控制，从而在政治上对埃及有决定权。
, former Social Interest Group Member
Egyptians strongly opposed Ethiopia’s GERD not because it brings an immediate danger since it has willingly has signed the 2015 tripartite treaty between the three riparian countries of Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia, but it want to maintain it’s regional hegemony in the Horn of Africa, by keeping the laters as the underdogs.
埃及人强烈反对埃塞俄比亚的复兴大坝，并不是因为它带来了直接的危险，而是因为它明明已经心甘情愿地签署了2015年埃及、苏丹和埃塞俄比亚三个河岸国家之间的三方条约，但它却想通过让后来者处于劣势来维持它在非洲之角的地区霸权。