As inflation hits 30-year high, UK households start to buckle
-Households facing biggest income hit in 30 years
-Inflation set to top 7% in April
-BoE calls for pay restraint
-Many families rein in spending on non-essentials
-Some economists think squeeze will end next year

随着通胀触及30年高点，英国家庭开始崩溃
——家庭收入受到30年来的最大打击
——4月份的通货膨胀率将超过7%
——英国央行呼吁限制薪酬
——许多家庭控制非必需品的开支
——一些经济学家认为，紧缩将在明年结束
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(Care worker Nicola Frape fills a kettle in the kitchen of her home in Ashford, Kent, Britain February 17, 2022.)

（2022年2月17日，在英国肯特郡阿什福德的家中，护理人员尼古拉·弗拉普在厨房里给水壶装水。）
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After work in the evenings, Nicola Frape turns off the heating and huddles under a blanket with her daughter and a hot water bottle. Adding a layer costs nothing, she says, but leaving the boiler on drains her inflation-hit bank account.

晚上下班后，尼古拉·弗拉普会关掉暖气，和女儿一起裹在毯子里，手里拿着热水瓶。她说，盖一层毯子不花一分钱，但开着锅炉就会耗尽她因通货膨胀而遭受打击的银行存款。

Treats such as cinema tickets have been scrapped as the 38 year-old care worker's food and fuel bills climb, and she has tried to cancel her pay-TV service but cannot get through to her provider: she assumes everyone is doing the same thing.

由于这位38岁的护理员的食物和燃料开支不断攀升，电影票之类的待遇已经被取消。她曾试图取消付费电视服务，但无法联系到她的服务商：她认为每个人都在做同样的事情。

Frape is one of millions of normally financially comfortable Britons who are facing a cost-of-living crisis as a double-whammy of accelerating inflation - driven by soaring energy bills - and tax increases kicks in this year.

弗拉普是数百万通常情况下经济状况良好的英国人之一，但他们正在面临着生活成本危机，这是由飞涨的能源账单推动的通货膨胀和今年开始的税收增加所带来的双重打击。

Fast-rising prices are inflicting what the Bank of England says will be the biggest one-year fall in disposable income, adjusted for inflation, in at least 30 years.

英国央行表示，快速上涨的物价造成的可支配收入（经通胀因素调整后）降幅将是至少30年来最大的一年。

After a decade of stagnant living standards - and in stark contrast to promises of a high-wage economy by Prime Minister Boris Johnson - Frape, like others, is bracing for a further hit to her finances in April.

在经历了10年的生活水平停滞后，与英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊承诺的“高工资经济”形成鲜明对比的是，弗拉普和其他人一样，将在4月份面临进一步的财政打击。

That is when energy bills are due to jump 54% to around 2,000 pounds ($2,723) a year per household - only some of which will be offset by emergency government support - and when social security contributions paid by workers are also due to increase, all against the backdrop of rising interest rates.

到那时，能源费用将上涨54%，达到每户每年2000英镑（2723美元）左右（只有其中一部分将被紧急政府支持抵消），并且在利率上升的背景下，工人缴纳的社会保障费用也将增加。

Frape says spending on food and petrol has already risen by 20 pounds a week. She and her 14-year old daughter have had to limit car journeys to help accumulate some savings for April. The little flags pinned to a wall map that show their previous holiday destinations are unlikely to be added to this year.

弗拉普说，食品和汽油的花费已经每周增加了20英镑。她和她14岁的女儿不得不限制开车出行，以便为4月份攒点钱。挂在墙上的地图上的小旗子显示了他们以前的度假目的地，而今年不太可能有小旗子被添加到地图上。

"There's just too much going up at once," Frape told Reuters in her immaculate home in Ashford, a town in south-east England, not far from the entrance to the Channel Tunnel. "The pressure is just going to be even worse in April."

弗拉普在其位于英格兰东南部的，距离英吉利海峡隧道入口不远的小镇阿什福德的家中接受路透采访时表示：“同时涨价的东西太多了。4月份的压力会更大。”

INFLATION'S CLIMB

通货膨胀的加剧

With economies around the world rebounding from coronavirus lockdowns, prices for everything from food and clothes to haircuts and rent, as well as energy are going up, fuelled by resurgent demand and shortages due to supply chain disruptions.

随着世界各地的经济从疫情封锁中复苏，从食品和服装到理发和租金，以及能源的价格都在上涨，这是由于需求复苏和供应链中断造成的短缺。

Accurate national comparisons of changes in living standards are hard to make but concerns about inflation are emerging as a big factor in elections including France's presidential race in April and U.S. midterm elections in November.

很难对各国生活水平的变化进行准确的比较，但对通胀的担忧正成为大选的一个重要因素，包括4月的法国总统大选和11月的美国中期选举。

Britain's consumer price inflation rate hit 5.5% in the 12 months to January, the highest since 1992 when the economy was feeling the after-effects of a late-1980s spending boom driven by Margaret Thatcher's tax cuts and big pay deals.

截至今年1月的12个月里，英国的消费价格通胀率达到5.5%，是1992年以来的最高水平。1992年，撒切尔夫人的减税和高额薪酬推动了上世纪80年代末的消费热潮，当时的英国经济正感受着这个热潮的余波。

The CPI is set to top 7% in April. The BoE thinks it will then start to slow but will still be above 5% in a year's time.

4月份CPI将突破7%。英国央行认为，利率随后将开始放缓，但在一年内仍将高于5%。

Inflation in the United States has already surpassed 7% to reach its highest since the early 1980s, and in the euro zone it hit a record 5.1% in January.

美国的通胀率已经超过了7%，达到了自20世纪80年代以来的最高水平，而在欧元区，1月份的通胀率达到了创纪录的5.1%。
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Frape, who works as housekeeper in a care home and has been in the industry since she was 18, is being urged by colleagues as their unx representative to demand a pay rise above April's government-mandated 6.6% increase in the minimum wage.

弗拉普在一家养老院做护工，从18岁开始就在这个行业工作。作为工会代表，她的同事们正在敦促她要求在4月份政府规定的最低工资上调6.6%的基础上加薪。
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Wage demand pressure, and the risk that it drives a self-perpetuating high inflation problem, is a big worry for the BoE.

薪资需求压力，以及这可能导致高通胀问题自我延续的风险，是英国央行的一大担忧。

Governor Andrew Bailey drew howls of protests from unxs this month when he called for restraint in pay talks.

行长安德鲁·贝利本月呼吁在工资谈判中保持克制，这引起了工会的强烈抗议。
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The BoE thinks underlying wage growth will hit almost 5% this year before easing.

英国央行认为，今年潜在工资增长将达到近5%，之后才会放缓。

Lower-income households are feeling the inflation pinch harder than higher earners, many of whom made big savings during the pandemic on commuting, holidays and going out.

低收入家庭比高收入者感受到的通胀压力更大，后者中的许多人在疫情期间在通勤、度假和外出方面存了一大笔钱。

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research, a think tank, estimates the combination of April's payroll tax increase and higher inflation could drive a 30% rise in destitution in the world's fifth-largest economy.

美国智库国家经济社会研究所估计，4月份的工资税上调加上通胀加剧，可能会使这个世界第五大经济体的贫困人口增加30%。

The Trussell Trust, which supports a network of food banks, said delivery of food parcels rose 11% between April and September last year compared with the same period of 2019, and hit one of its highest ever levels in December.

支持食品银行网络的托拉斯信托表示，去年4月至9月，食品包裹的递送量同比增长11%，12月达到有史以来最高水平之一。

At Dad's House, a food bank in west London, some people who used to donate are now among the 500 families who get support each week. Jackie Gordon, 52, said she often goes without food. "I have to pay my bills," she said. "I'm behind with my rent and I don't want to get evicted."

在伦敦西部的一家食品银行“爸爸之家”，一些曾经捐赠过食物的人现在成了每周获得资助的500个家庭中的一员。52岁的杰基·戈登说，她经常不吃东西。“我得付账单，”她说。“我拖欠了房租，不想被赶出来。”

SHARP BUT SHORT?

尖锐但很短？

The government is hoping the cost-of-living squeeze, while sharp, will be short-lived.

政府希望，尽管生活成本危机很尖锐，但这种情况不会持续太久。

It will spread some of the fuel price increase over the coming years and cut a tax for people in lower-value properties to provide support through 2022.

它将在未来几年分摊部分燃油价格上涨，并为低价值房产购房者减税，以提供度过2022年的支持。

Capital Economics believes household disposable income, adjusted for inflation, might recover as soon as early 2023 as inflation drops more quickly than the BoE expects and unemployment remains lower.

凯投宏观认为，经通胀因素调整后的家庭可支配收入最早可能在2023年复苏，因为通胀降幅快于英国央行预期，且失业率仍然较低。

The consultancy forecast a peak-to-trough fall in real wages of 2.6% between September 2021 and April 2022 compared with a drawn-out drop of 13.5% after the global financial crisis as wages rose by less than inflation between 2008 and 2014.

该咨询公司预测，在2021年9月至2022年4月期间，实际工资将从峰值到谷底下降2.6%，而在2008年至2014年期间，由于工资涨幅低于通胀，全球金融危机后的实际工资降幅为13.5%。

But Rebecca McDonald, senior economist at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, which campaigns on poverty issues, said 2022 was likely to leave a lasting mark on poorer households even if inflation falls sharply.

但致力于贫困问题的约瑟夫·朗特里基金会高级经济学家丽贝卡·麦克唐纳表示，即使通胀大幅下降，2022年也可能给较贫困家庭留下持久的印记。

"It's going to feel like a much more longer-term issue because this year is going to be incredibly difficult," McDonald said, predicting many families would resort to debt or going into arrears this year.

麦克唐纳说：“这将是一个长期得多的问题，因为今年将非常困难。”她预计许多家庭今年将诉诸债务或拖欠债务。

Frape said she was routinely checking her bank balance after the strains on her budget intensified earlier this year. The extra outlays keep on coming: her daughter's annual bus pass is expected to rise by 80 pounds, or more than 20%.

弗拉普说，今年早些时候她的预算紧张加剧后，她经常查看自己的银行余额。额外的开支还在继续：她女儿的公交卡年费预计将上涨80英镑，涨幅超过20%。

She works three days a week but said she would lose income from tax credits if she worked longer hours. Frape says her cautious approach has served her well for now, although it underscores why so many retailers and hospitality outlets expect a torrid 2022.

她每周工作三天，但她表示，如果工作时间延长，她将失去来自税收抵免的收入。弗拉普说，她的谨慎态度目前对她很有帮助，尽管这突显了为什么许多零售商和酒店预计2022年将是一个难熬的年份。

Soon, she said, the government will need to go further.

她说，政府很快就需要进一步加大帮扶力度。

"I think it's a really sad situation that people are struggling to live. They're working so many hours and draining themselves and still can't make ends meet," Frape said. "Something's got to give."

弗雷普说：“我认为这是一个非常可悲的情况，人们正在努力生活。他们工作了这么长时间，耗尽了自己的精力，却仍然无法维持生计。有些东西必须舍弃。”

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