如果在二战期间，没有原子弹轰炸广岛，日本还会投降吗?
Would Japan have surrendered in WW2 without the atomic bomb being dropped on Hiroshima?
译文简介
Christopher Awuku：我不相信他们会战斗到最后一个人。他们也许有在战斗中不投降的荣誉准则，但他们并不愚蠢。他们知道即使没有原子弹轰炸，这次也完蛋了。
正文翻译
Would Japan have surrendered in WW2 without the atomic bomb being dropped on Hiroshima?
如果在二战期间，没有原子弹轰炸广岛，日本还会投降吗?
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I think they would have surrendered eventually, with eventually being the operative word there.
The Japanese Government was sending out peace feelers in June and July of 1945, but they were very tentative, and often the efforts were misguided as the emissaries had no clear authority to negotiate. Their best opportunity was in enlisting the help of a third country as an intermediary, and Ambassador Naotake Sato
我认为他们最终会投降，这句话里最重要的词是“最终”。
日本政府在1945年6月和7月派出了和平使者，但他们都是试探性的，而且这些努力经常被误解，因为使者们没有得到明确的谈判授权。他们最好的机会是争取第三国作为中间人帮助进行和谈 ，
以及和谈大使佐藤尚武。
When Sato was ushered into Molotov’s office, he was cut off before he could even greet the foreign minister. Molotov handed him a declaration of war between the Soviet unx and Japan. The Japanese had waited too long. Even if they had started sooner, it would have been to no purpose. As soon as the European War was in hand, the Soviets fully intended to declare war against Japan.
他的任务是在与美国谈判时寻求苏联的帮助。1945年6月和7月期间，苏联外交部长莫洛托夫一直推迟与佐藤的会晤时间，最终将日期定在8月8日。这恰好发生在广岛原子弹爆炸之后，长崎被投下原子弹的前一天。
当佐藤被带进莫洛托夫的办公室时，他甚至还没来得及向这位外交部长打招呼就被打断了谈话。莫洛托夫递给他一份苏联对日宣战书。日本人等得时间太久了。即使他们早点动身，也无济于事。欧洲战争一打响，苏联就一心要对日宣战。
Without the atomic bombs, we were left with two choices, invade or blockade. Either of those would extend the war.
日本所有这些为了和平进行的努力存在一个问题，那就是没有一次努力是在海军，更重要的是，在陆军的指导下进行的。日本海陆两军都花了数年时间向他们自己和他们的士兵灌输这场决战的理念。1945年7月，他们目睹了这场战争在日本本土岛屿上演。他们的信念是，他们可以给入侵的军队造成毁灭性的伤亡，并以此推动达成和平谈判，这是他们在整个战争中的目标。到最后，这种哲学已经发展到他们愿意牺牲1亿日本平民来实现它的目标。
如果没有原子弹，我们只有两个选择，入侵或封锁日本。这两种情况都会将战争延长。
这两种选择都不被杜鲁门总统所接受。美国人民当时已经开始对战争感到厌恶，我们的人力资源也已经枯竭。入侵意味着将军队从欧洲重新部署到太平洋，这种可能性对于那些认为他们已经尽了自己的责任的人来说是非常不受欢迎的。核弹让杜鲁门摆脱了这个噩梦。
…the Japanese military, especially the mid-grade officers, would have remained determined to continue the war. These officers, schooled in the radical militarism of Bushido, believed in something called Gekokujo, respectful disobedience, or low overthrows high. They felt that they were obligated to disobey, with violence if necessary, anyone senior to them who was not acting in what they thought was the country’s or Emporer’s best interests. Regardless of events and the obvious evidence that the war was lost, they were prepared to take any action necessary to continue the war.
即使通过持续的常规轰炸，让东京同样变成这样……
日本军队，特别是中级军官，依然会继续坚持进行这场战争，这些军官接受了武士道激进军国主义的教育，他们相信一种叫做Gekokujo的精神，即尊重的不服从，或以下克上。他们觉得自己有义务违抗，必要时甚至使用暴力，违抗任何在他们看来不符合国家或皇帝最大利益的上级。不管发生了什么事件，不管已经有明显的证据表明战争已经失败，他们依然准备采取任何必要的行动来继续这场战争。
Even after all that, there was an attempted coup by a group of company-grade officers who planned to destroy the recordings of the Emperor’s surrender announcement and continue the war.
As to what effect the atomic bombs had on the decision to surrender, I can only reference the Imperial Rescxt recorded by Hirohito. The atomic bomb gets a specific mention as,
事实证明，即便两枚原子弹在日本爆炸，航空母舰对日本主岛进行轰炸，
与此同时，美军通过火炮对日本境内的目标进行轰炸，苏联也加入了战争，天皇两次亲自出面劝说军队结束战争。
即使在这一切之后，一群连级军官仍企图发动政变，他们计划销毁天皇投降声明的录音，并继续进行战争。
至于原子弹对日本投降的影响，我只能拿裕仁天皇的诏书作为参考。在这份诏书中原子弹被特别提到了，
“…the war situation has developed not necessarily to Japan’s advantage, while the general trends of the world have all turned
“……一种新的、最残忍的，拥有不可估量的破坏力的炸弹，夺去了许多无辜的生命。如果我们继续战斗，不仅会导致日本民族的最终崩溃和灭亡，也会导致人类文明的彻底灭绝。”
“……战争形势的发展并不一定对日本有利，而世界的大势却已然发生了变化。
If the atomic bomb had not been dropped on the Japanese during WWII, the Japanese would have dragged the war out way longer than it needed to be. The Japanese would have probably gone till they were extinct. They would not surrender they would have rather committed suicide than surrender.
I think we were totally justified in dropping that bomb on the Japanese. When you mess with America you better be ready to fight back and the Japanese probably regret ever bombing Pearl Harbor, once the bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki were dropped.
如果二战期间日本国土没有被投下原子弹，日本人会把战争拖得比需要的时间更长。到时候日本人可能已经灭绝了。他们不投降，他们宁愿自杀也不投降。
我认为我们完全有理由向日本国土扔下炸弹。当你和美国闹翻的时候，你最好做好反击的准备，在广岛和长崎被投下了原子弹之后，日本人可能会后悔曾经轰炸过珍珠港。
When the bomb dropped Japan already knew it had lost. They were preparing for invasion where everyone had to die. We have to allow the possibility of their fighting to the last man, woman and child and fifty million people die, not to mention the million estimated allied casualties.
The Americans could have decided invading Japan wasn’t worth the cost and just kept tightening the blockade and Japan held out another year at the cost of five million dead civilians.
The bomb begins to look cheap compared to the war continuing.
当原子弹投下时，日本就知道自己已经输了。他们为他国的入侵做好了准备，决心战至最后一人。我们要考虑到他们可能会战斗到最后一个男人，女人和孩子，5000万人死亡，更不用说估计还会有数百万盟军伤亡。
美国人本来认定入侵日本的代价是得不偿失的，然后会继续加强封锁，日本会以500万平民的死亡作为代价多坚持抵抗一年。
与持续不休的战争的消耗相比，核弹就显得很划算了。
The likely answer is NO.
I consulted several volumes of the Strategic Bombing Survey which included interrogations of senior Japanese military, government, and diplomatic personnel. There was surprising similarity in their replies: many expected hostilities to last until 1948, depending on supplies. Certainly the willingness was there…
答案很可能是否定的。
我参考了几卷美国战略轰炸调查团的报告，其中包括对日本高级军事、政府和外交人员的审讯。他们的回答有惊人的相似之处:许多人预计战争将持续到1948年，这取决于武器的供应情况。当然，战斗的意愿是存在的……
in fact Japan was already looking for intermediaries for a peace agreement or surrender in not so hullillant terms through the Soviet unx in Switzerland, but the Russians hid it
Had such a surrender (in fact, Japan was already weakened militarily), the Russian invasion of Manchuria, Korea, South Sakhalin and the Kuriles would not have occurred, just as the Battle of Okinawa and the Kamikaze attacks, the bombings, would not have occurred. massive B-29s over Japanese territory and the air battles as well as the air-naval attacks on Japanese territory or even the invasion of the Philippines would have been different ... it would not have been necessary to use the atomic bomb or prepare the invasion plan.
事实上，日本已经在瑞士寻找与苏联达成和平协议或投降的中间人，但俄国人并不愿意。
如果日本当时就投降了(事实上，日本在军事上已经被削弱了)，那么俄罗斯对满洲、朝鲜半岛、南库页岛和千岛群岛的入侵就不会发生，就像冲绳岛战役和神风特攻队的轰炸就不会发生一样。在日本领土上空部署的大规模b -29轰炸机、战机、对日本领土的海空攻击，甚至是对菲律宾的入侵都会是不同的…没有必要使用原子弹或准备入侵的计划。
Thus also the Japanese garrisons of Rabaul and New Guinea as well as Wake and other islands, Dutch Indies, Burma, Thailand, would have surrendered peacefully.
另一个大输家将会是苏联，因为红军在攻击满洲、朝鲜、卡拉富托和千岛群岛时提供的“帮助”将变得并非必要……更别提俄国人参与入侵北海道了....
这样，日本在拉包尔、新几内亚、威克和其他岛屿、荷属印度群岛、缅甸、泰国的驻军也会和平投降。
But what could not have been avoided is that some elements dissatisfied with a peace thus agreed and who wanted War ... had tried to boycott or damage the agreements to fanatically continue the War to the end.
the War of the Pacific would have ended in a very different way .....
法属印度支那，新加坡，以及被占领的中国和满洲国的领土，事实上还有日本本土，(日本群岛)，韩国，（中国）台湾。如果不发生冲突，关东、千岛群岛和卡拉富托人也会放下武器。
但不可避免的是，一些人对这样达成的和平不满，他们想要战争，这些人试图抵制或破坏协议，狂热地将战争进行到底。
那样太平洋战争就会以一种截然不同的方式结束.....
Eventually it would happen. The other possibilty is that they would never surrender, meaning the fighting would happen until their populace was simply completely wiped out. That doesn’t sound like something that would be chosen.
最终还是会投降。另一种可能是，他们永远不会投降，这意味着战斗将持续到他们的民众完全被消灭。这种选择听起就来不像是会被选中的。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Possibly. I don’t buy the notion they would have fought until the last man. THey may have had an honour code of no surrender in combat, but they weren’t stupid. They knew the game was up, even without the atomic bombings. They had been pushed back across the Pacific, and in Burma, and the Allies had plans to invade Malaya (now Malaysia) and Singapore. Italy had long surrendered and changed sides, whilst Germany had surrendered a few months prior.
可能吧。我不相信他们会战斗到最后一个人。他们也许有在战斗中不投降的荣誉准则，但他们并不愚蠢。他们知道即使没有原子弹轰炸，这场游戏也完蛋了。他们在太平洋彼岸和缅甸被击退，同盟国计划入侵马来亚(现在的马来西亚)和新加坡。意大利早已投降并改变立场，而德国几个月前就投降了。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
It’s all speculation, and even why they surrendered in the first place is speculation, beyond what the Emperor and others in the war cabinet said.
So you can choose whatever answer you like, that’s what most people do.
My comment is, the weight of two atomic bombs, the encirclement of the islands, the annihilation of the Japanese Navy, the starvation, the disease, the P-51s flying all over Japan shooting up whatever they wanted, and the Russians (who Japan hoped would negotiate with the Americans and British for them) invading, erased all hope. And the weight of ALL of that was just more than their divine leader could justify anymore.
这都是猜测，甚至他们为什么首先投降也有诸多猜测，这些猜测并未局限于天皇和其他战时内阁成员的说法。
所以你可以选择任何你喜欢的答案，就像大多数人一样。
我的观点是,两个原子弹的分量,被团团包围的岛屿,日本海军的毁灭,饥饿,疾病,P-51s在日本上空飞行，拍摄任何他们想要的东西,和俄罗斯(日本本希望能与美国和英国谈判)入侵,抹去所有希望。而这一切的分量已经超过了他们神圣的领袖所能证明的。
The war council deadlocked 3–3 on August 9th despite all this, and it was Hirohito who broke the tie and opted for surrender. The 3–3 tie was civilian government for surrender (3), and the IJA (Army) 3 against.
In addition, the Army was arguing for fighting to the last soul, and they had shown their plan for that based on tactics in Iwo Jima and Okinawa. So it was a credible threat.
我们能说的是，第二颗炸弹在8月9日投下，与此同时，俄国人入侵了满洲。
尽管如此，战争会议还是在8月9日以3比3的方式陷入僵局，是裕仁打破了僵局，选择投降。3比3的平局是文官政府投降，3比3的对手是陆军。
另外，陆军主张“战斗到最后一刻”，他们展示了基于硫磺岛和冲绳岛战术的计划，并且提出了作战计划。所以这是一个可信的威胁。
So, would they surrender, eventually yes, but the idea the Army had was “if we make it hard enough and hold on (regardless of what happens to the civilian population) the allies will tire of waiting and agree to a peace that might leave the hardliners in power. Eventually starvation and disease would have forced the surrender but it would have been catastrophic compared to losing two cities as harsh as that is to accept.
日本实际上被包围了，可以被盟军切断其与外界的联系，但饿死一个国家需要相当长的时间，可能需要好几年，基本上就是在等待政变推翻强硬派的可能性发生。
那么，他们最终会投降吗?是的，但陆军的想法是“如果我们让事情变得足够艰难，坚持下去(不管平民百姓会遭遇什么)，盟军会厌倦等待，同意达成和平协议，这可能会让强硬派掌权。”最终，饥饿和疾病迫使他们投降，与失去两座城市相比，这将是灾难性的。
裕仁天皇在8月6日日本被投下第一颗原子弹后立即问:“这是原子弹吗?”他和军方都知道关于原子弹的设想，但军方辩称，美国需要数年时间才能真正拥有一颗原子弹。所以当这被证明是真的时，原子弹成为了一个主要的担忧。陆军当时的退路是，好吧，制造一个如此复杂的退路是他们唯一的退路。很明显，这一招奏效了两天，然后又迎来了第二枚原子弹。裕仁天皇受够了，当投票结果持平时，他说，可以说，战争结束了，我们也结束了。这是一个好主意，因为另一颗原子弹正在准备中，在那之后，美国大约每个月可以制造三颗原子弹。与此同时，苏联人横扫满洲，所以日本正在饿着肚子，面对着希特勒梦寐以求的真正的超级武器，也面临着无望的命运。
Surrendering is a very soft term. Japan was ready to surrender before the bombs, but their terms for surrendering were actually more of a cease fire. They wanted to keep the territories still occupied, and keep their armies and armed forces, keep their government and leaders and basically would stop fighting. The Allies wanted unconditional surrender which meant returning all lands to pre 1937 owners, reparations for war damages, disarmament of Japan, removal of all leadership and war crimes trials.
The Japanese military leadership realized they had lose but were planning to make continuation of the war very costly for the Allies in order to get their version of surrender.
投降是一个非常温和的词。日本在原子弹爆炸前就准备投降了，但他们的投降条件实际上更像是停火。他们想要保持占领区的领土不被夺走，保持他们的军队和武装力量，保持他们的政府和领导人不变，这样他们基本上就会停止战斗。同盟国则要求日本无条件投降，这意味着日本需要归还1937年后所占有的所有土地，赔偿战争损失，解除日本的军事武装，清除所有领导人，审判他们的战争罪行。所以他们相距很远。
日本军方领导层意识到他们已经输了，但他们计划让这场战争的持续对协约国来说要获得他们想要的投降，代价将变得非常高昂。
对于盟军来说，这枚炸弹是一种规避消耗巨量的生命、金钱和时间代价以赢得战争的方法。但是，他们并没有得到他们想要的一切。他们同意了一个妥协的条件，即日本天皇将继续留任。但是原子弹投入使用确实节省了金钱和生命，并且以非常接近他们最初的投降条件达到了盟军的大部分目标。
我认为如果你看看战后的结果，日本确实得到了更好的结果。想象一下一种情况，我们入侵了日本，100万盟军士兵丧生，500万到1000万日本军人和平民伤亡，这对日本来说是非常糟糕的。而在另一个场景中,如果美国同意按照日本提出的最初的条件接受日本投降，那么好战的日本军事领导人今天还会继续掌权，日本将控制着中国和印度支那的大片地区，而未来战争的可能性将大大增加，而在美国军事管制下对日本的重建将永远不会发生发生。