联合国秘书长警告说，世界正走上变暖2.7度的“灾难性”道路
World on ''catastrophic'' path to 2.7°C warming, warns UN chief
译文简介
联合国秘书长安东尼奥·古铁雷斯周五在关键性的气候会议前几周警告说，削减全球排放的失败正在使世界走上一条“灾难性”的道路，即全球会升温2.7摄氏度。
正文翻译
A failure to slash global emissions is setting the world on a "catastrophic" path to 2.7 degrees Celsius heating, UN chief Antonio Guterres warned Friday just weeks before crunch climate talks.
联合国秘书长安东尼奥·古铁雷斯周五在关键性的气候会议前几周警告说，削减全球排放的失败正在使世界走上一条“灾难性”的道路，即全球会升温2.7摄氏度。
His comments come as a United Nations report on global emissions pledges found instead of the reductions needed to avoid the worst effects of climate change, they would see "a considerable increase".
This shows "the world is on a catastrophic pathway to 2.7-degrees of heating," Guterres said in a statement.
The figure would shatter the temperature targets of the Paris climate agreement, which aimed for warming well below 2C and preferably capped at 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
"Failure to meet this goal will be measured in the massive loss of lives and livelihoods," Guterres said.
他此言是在联合国关于全球排放承诺的报告中发表的，该报告发现，避免气候变化最恶劣影响所需的减排将“大幅增加”。
古铁雷斯在一份声明中说，这表明“世界正处于升温2.7度的灾难性道路上”。
这一数字将打破巴黎气候协定设定的温度目标。巴黎气候协定的目标是将全球变暖幅度控制在2摄氏度以下，并与前工业化时代之间的温差在1.5度内。
古铁雷斯说：“未能实现这一目标的话，我们将付出失去许多生命的代价。”。
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This shows "the world is on a catastrophic pathway to 2.7-degrees of heating," Guterres said in a statement.
The figure would shatter the temperature targets of the Paris climate agreement, which aimed for warming well below 2C and preferably capped at 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
"Failure to meet this goal will be measured in the massive loss of lives and livelihoods," Guterres said.
他此言是在联合国关于全球排放承诺的报告中发表的，该报告发现，避免气候变化最恶劣影响所需的减排将“大幅增加”。
古铁雷斯在一份声明中说，这表明“世界正处于升温2.7度的灾难性道路上”。
这一数字将打破巴黎气候协定设定的温度目标。巴黎气候协定的目标是将全球变暖幅度控制在2摄氏度以下，并与前工业化时代之间的温差在1.5度内。
古铁雷斯说：“未能实现这一目标的话，我们将付出失去许多生命的代价。”。
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Under the landmark 2015 Paris deal, nations committed to slash emissions, as well as to provide assistance to the most climate-vulnerable countries.
根据具有里程碑意义的2015年巴黎气候协议，各国承诺削减排放，并向在减排一事上比较脆弱的国家提供援助。
But a bombshell "code red" for humanity from the world's pre-eminent body on global warming in August warned that Earth's average temperature will be 1.5C higher around 2030, a decade earlier than projected only three years ago.
但全球变暖问题世界知名机构8月份为人类发出的一个爆炸性的“红色代码”警告说，到2030年左右，地球平均气温将比现在高出1.5摄氏度，比三年前的预测提前了十年。
但全球变暖问题世界知名机构8月份为人类发出的一个爆炸性的“红色代码”警告说，到2030年左右，地球平均气温将比现在高出1.5摄氏度，比三年前的预测提前了十年。
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says that emissions should be around 45 percent lower by 2030 compared with 2010 levels to meet the 1.5C goal.
政府间气候变化专门委员会表示，要实现气候变化控制在1.5摄氏度内的目标，到2030年，排放量应比2010年减少约45%。
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政府间气候变化专门委员会表示，要实现气候变化控制在1.5摄氏度内的目标，到2030年，排放量应比2010年减少约45%。
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The UN said on Friday that current pledges by 191 countries would see emissions 16 percent higher at end of the decade than in 2010 -- a level that would eventually cause the world to warm 2.7C.
联合国周五表示，191个国家目前的减排承诺将在本10年结束时比2010年高出16%——这一水平最终将导致全球变暖2.7℃。
联合国周五表示，191个国家目前的减排承诺将在本10年结束时比2010年高出16%——这一水平最终将导致全球变暖2.7℃。
"Overall greenhouse gas emission numbers are moving in the wrong direction," said UN climate chief Patricia Espinosa in a press conference.
联合国气候主管帕特里夏·埃斯皮诺萨在一次新闻发布会上说：“总的来说温室气体排放量正朝着错误的方向发展。”。
联合国气候主管帕特里夏·埃斯皮诺萨在一次新闻发布会上说：“总的来说温室气体排放量正朝着错误的方向发展。”。
But she said there was a "glimmer of hope" from 113 countries that had upxed their pledges, including the United States and European unx.
但她表示，包括美国和欧盟在内的113个国家更新了它们的承诺，这给我们带来了“一线希望”。
但她表示，包括美国和欧盟在内的113个国家更新了它们的承诺，这给我们带来了“一线希望”。
These new pledges, known as Nationally Determined Contributions, would see their emissions reduced 12 percent by 2030 compared to 2010.
这些国家自发的新承诺表示，到2030年，其排放量将比2010年减少12%。
这些国家自发的新承诺表示，到2030年，其排放量将比2010年减少12%。
With only 1.1C of warming so far, the world has seen a torrent of deadly weather disasters intensified by climate change in recent months, from asphalt-melting heatwaves to flash floods and untameable wildfires.
到目前为止，全球变暖程度仅为1.1摄氏度，近几个月来，气候变化加剧了一系列致命的天气灾害，从能让沥青融化的热浪到山洪暴发和无法扑灭的野火等等。
到目前为止，全球变暖程度仅为1.1摄氏度，近几个月来，气候变化加剧了一系列致命的天气灾害，从能让沥青融化的热浪到山洪暴发和无法扑灭的野火等等。
The Paris deal included a "ratchet" mechanism in which signatories agreed to a rolling five-year review of their climate pledges in which they are supposed to display ever greater ambition for action.
巴黎协议包括一个“棘轮”机制，在该机制中，签署国同意对其气候承诺进行为期五年的滚动审查，在审查中，他们应该表现出更大的行动力。
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巴黎协议包括一个“棘轮”机制，在该机制中，签署国同意对其气候承诺进行为期五年的滚动审查，在审查中，他们应该表现出更大的行动力。
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But many major emitters have yet to issue new targets.
但许多主要排放国尚未发布新的目标。
但许多主要排放国尚未发布新的目标。
That includes China -- the world's biggest emitter -- has said it will reach net zero emissions by 2060, but has not yet delivered its NDC that would spell out emissions reductions by 2030.
其中包括世界上最大的排放国中国，它曾表示到2060年将实现碳中和，但尚未提交到2030年实现减排的目标。
其中包括世界上最大的排放国中国，它曾表示到2060年将实现碳中和，但尚未提交到2030年实现减排的目标。
Meanwhile new targets from Brazil and Mexico were actually weaker than those they submitted five years ago, according to an analysis by the World Resources Institute.
与此同时，根据世界资源研究所的分析，巴西和墨西哥的新目标实际上比五年前提交的目标要弱。
与此同时，根据世界资源研究所的分析，巴西和墨西哥的新目标实际上比五年前提交的目标要弱。
The UN report was a "damning indictment" of global progress on climate, particularly by G20 nations, responsible for the lion's share of emissions, said Mohamed Adow, who leads the think tank Power Shift Africa.
联合国的报告是对全球气候变化进展的“谴责”，智囊团“Power Shift Africa”的负责人穆罕默德·阿多说，特别是G20国家，它们对排放量的最大份额负有责任。
联合国的报告是对全球气候变化进展的“谴责”，智囊团“Power Shift Africa”的负责人穆罕默德·阿多说，特别是G20国家，它们对排放量的最大份额负有责任。
"They are the countries which have caused this crisis and yet are failing to show the leadership required to lead us out of this mess," he said.
“他们是造成这场危机的国家”，他说，“但却没有表现出带领我们走出这场混乱所需的领导力。”。
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“他们是造成这场危机的国家”，他说，“但却没有表现出带领我们走出这场混乱所需的领导力。”。
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Another issue on the table at the Glasgow summit will be a pledge as yet unfulfilled -- the pledge by wealthy nations to provide annual climate funding of $100 billion from 2020 to poorer countries, who bear the greatest impact of warming.
格拉斯哥峰会上讨论的另一个问题是尚未兑现的承诺——富裕国家承诺从2020年起每年向受气候变暖影响最大的穷国提供1000亿美元的援助资金。
格拉斯哥峰会上讨论的另一个问题是尚未兑现的承诺——富裕国家承诺从2020年起每年向受气候变暖影响最大的穷国提供1000亿美元的援助资金。
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development on Friday said progress was "disappointing", with developing countries receiving $79.6 billion in 2019.
经济合作与发展组织周五表示，进展“令人失望”，2019年发展中国家仅获得796亿美元的补助。
经济合作与发展组织周五表示，进展“令人失望”，2019年发展中国家仅获得796亿美元的补助。
It warned that the target for 2020, which saw the world shaken by the Covid-19 pandemic, would be missed.
它警告说，2020年减排的目标无法实现。2020年新冠肺炎疫情影响了世界。
它警告说，2020年减排的目标无法实现。2020年新冠肺炎疫情影响了世界。
"The fight against climate change will only succeed if everyone comes together to promote more ambition, more cooperation and more credibility," said Guterres.
古铁雷斯说：“只有大家齐心协力，推动更大的行动力、更多国与国之间的合作和更高的可信度，对抗气候变化的斗争才会成功。”。
古铁雷斯说：“只有大家齐心协力，推动更大的行动力、更多国与国之间的合作和更高的可信度，对抗气候变化的斗争才会成功。”。
"It is time for leaders to stand and deliver, or people in all countries will pay a tragic price."
“是时候让全球领袖站出来兑现承诺了，否则所有国家的人民都将付出惨痛的代价。”
“是时候让全球领袖站出来兑现承诺了，否则所有国家的人民都将付出惨痛的代价。”
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This is not good at all. Food production and water shortages are bound to be expected and in many parts of the world. Especially in areas of high risk and with already low rainfall.
Man, I want off this ride.
这一点都不好。在世界许多地区，粮食生产和水资源短缺才是不可避免的话题。特别是在高风险和降雨量已经很低的地区。
我要下车了兄弟。
It will make covid pandemic look like a day at Disneyland
这将使新冠疫情看起来像迪斯尼乐园的一天
And we'll still have a third of the population flat out deny it's happening, blame it on the Chinese, or choose some other reason to refuse to contribute to a solution.
我们仍将有三分之一的人口坚决否认这一情况的发生，将其归咎于中国人，或者选择其他理由拒绝为解决方案做出贡献。
after that, they'll be "everyone for himself"
在那之后，他们将喊口号“每个人都为自己而活”
Is a Subaru Outback a good car for the mad max dystopia?
斯巴鲁傲虎是疯狂的麦克斯里面那种反乌托邦的好车吗？
Mixed bag, I'd go with Toyota Hilux
混合动力，我会选择丰田Hilux
Fuck that. In the aftermath you want a home built electric car with no cloud management and a solar array to charge with. Gasoline and diesel don't store well.
去他妈的。再然后，你会想要一辆没有云管理和太阳能电池板充电的家用电动汽车。
汽油和柴油难以存储。
Fuck that. You want an electric bicycle. Quiet, recharges much more quickly, still manages 25+ mph on the right one, much more capable of circumventing road blocks and other obstacles, and if the battery dies, it's still a bicycle.
去他妈的。你会想要一辆电动自行车。安静且充电快得多，选对了车的话仍能保持25+英里/小时的速度，更能避开路障和其他障碍物，如果电池没电了，它仍然是一辆能骑的自行车。
Mac Brooks would agree with you. He has a similar recommendation in the Zombie Survival Guide.
麦克·布鲁克斯会同意你的。他在《僵尸生存指南》中也有类似的建议。
The fact that the cars and trucks are still running years later is the second most unrealistic part of The Walking Dead.
The most unrealistic part of The Walking Dead is that there aren't more people denying that the Zombie virus is real and just going about their daily lives like it's NBD.
汽车和卡车在几年后仍在行驶的事实是《行尸走肉》中排第二最假的部分。
《行尸走肉》中排第一假的部分是，没有人否认僵尸病毒是真实存在的，好像没什么大不了的一样在日常生活中传播。
I’ll take a horse I guess then.
我猜我会骑匹马。
And then you can use its poo to grow food.
Source: have horses and use the poo to grow food
然后你可以用它的粪便来种植食物。
资料来源：（链接：养马、用粪便种植食物）
Good point.
有点意思。
I was actually neutral-to-optimistic about climate change and our ability to deal with it before the pandemic. But now, knowing that half of the people won't get vaccinated or even wear masks, and literally die on that hill over it, I don't think we have any chance.
I think around 2030 it's going to be clear we're fucked and there's nothing that can be done about it.
事实上，我在大流行前对气候变化以及我们应对气候变化的能力持中立和乐观态度。但现在，我知道一半的人不会接种疫苗，甚至不会戴口罩，而且会死于此因，我认为我们没有任何机会。
我想在2030年左右，我们就会明白我们全搞砸了，对此我们无能为力。
For me it's the reality that the government will just not do what it takes to make a difference. COVID could have been more effectively managed if the government actually did what they needed to do to curb COVID. Even now it's the same thing with the vaccine readily available. Only way to deal with idiots is to force them to do something for the greater good.
Climate change is COVID on steroids. You cannot combat climate change unless you force drastic changes and force everyone to deal with it. If you continue to give everyone a choice, nothing will get done. Total ban on pollutants, total ban on non-recyclables, considerable water conservation efforts meaning shutting down water wasting businesses like golf courses.
Even if we do these things today, we're still screwed. Every week there's a "it's worse than we thought" observation and every week there's nothing done about it.
对我来说，这是非常现实的，即政府不会采取任何措施来改变现状。如果政府真的采取必要措施遏制新冠病毒，那么新冠病毒本可以得到更有效的管理。即使现在，在打不打疫苗上也一样。对付白痴的唯一办法就是强迫他们为greater good（即大家常说的更伟大的事业）做点什么。
气候变化也像新冠病毒一样。除非你采取强制措施强迫所有人应对气候变化，否则你无法做出有效的行动。如果你继续让大家有得选，那么什么也做不了。全面禁止污染物，全面禁止不可回收物，全面节水措施——意味着关闭高尔夫球场等浪费水的狗屎玩意儿。
即使我们今天做了所有这些事，我们还是完蛋了。每周都有一个“比我们想象的更糟糕”的论文出台，每周都没有任何人采取任何措施。
Yea the issue again falls back on these huge corporations that are lining the politician's pockets to get what they want. Its a joke nothing is going to change if this is allowed to happen. Its fucking sad that the greed of a handful of people will be the demise of us all.
是的，问题再次落在这些大公司身上，这些大公司在政客的口袋里塞满了他们想要的东西。你在跟我开玩笑呢？如果政府允许这种情况发生，什么都不会改变。一小部分人的贪婪将导致我们所有人的死亡，这真是他妈的可悲。
Bribing isn’t even the biggest problem now. One person with enough money could gain the voting power of multiple people. With what’s going on with covid/covid vaccination and the Cambridge Analytica sandal; we learned that masses of people are easily manipulated. One person with money could send out tons of information, based on research by some company like Cambridge Analytica, would guide people towards the desired opinion. This is much better than bribing some politicians because there’s no trace, no scandal. Just loyal followers that believe they are doing the right thing in the name of freedom, etc.
贿赂甚至不是现在最大的问题。一个人有足够的钱就可以获得多人的投票（川普： ）。关于新冠病毒/新冠病毒疫苗接种和剑桥分析师在此事上的进展；我们了解到，群众很容易被操纵。根据剑桥Analytica等公司的研究，一个有钱的人可以传播大量信息，引导人们的看法，让他们认为他想让他们认为的。这比贿赂一些政客要好得多，因为不会有痕迹，不会有丑闻。只是可怜了那些忠诚的追随者，他们相信他们以自由的名义做了正确的事情，等等。
Absolutely! I keep trying to explain this to people when they can't understand how people like the COVID deniers even exist. They've genuinely been duped, surrounded by their info bubble. I always disliked FB, and felt the data they were collecting was dangerous with that company specifically. I did NOT understand just how much until Cambridge Analytica / Brexit. I also underestimated how easy it is to manipulate people to that degree. Its like gaslighting on an incredible scale.
绝对的！我一直试图向人们解释这一点，当他们不理解像否认新冠存在的人是如何存在的时候。他们真的被欺骗了，被他们的信息泡沫包围着。我一直不喜欢脸书，觉得他们收集的数据让那家公司特别危险。直到Cambridge Analytica/英国脱欧，我才明白到底有多少谎言。我还低估了操纵人们的容易程度。它就像一盏煤气灯发出了误导的光，简直离谱。
Very accurate descxtion of our dilemma.
非常准确地描述了我们的困境。
Tbh, I don't think they'd stop even if their donors demanded it.
They just don't care.
说真的，我认为即使资助者提出要求，他们也不会停止这么做。
他们就是tm不在乎。
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Yeah, I know
Covid didn't cause power outages, flooding, damaged rail and highways, crop failure........
是的，我知道
新冠病毒没有导致停电、洪水、铁路和公路受损、农作物歉收...
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100% agreed. I thought we might have a fighting chance until a significant chunk of the human population found it controversial to wear a fucking mask and get vaccinated during a global pandemic. Covid was a terrific test for a real huge catastrophic worldwide disaster, and as a species we failed it miserably.
100%同意。我认为我们可能会有一个机会搏一搏，直到有相当一部分人发现在全球大流行期间应该戴上他妈的口罩并接种疫苗。新冠病毒是对一场真正的世界性灾难的一次极好的测试，作为一个群体，我们惨败。
This is why I keep laughing at people who speak about “getting back to normal” after the pandemic. I’m sorry, what normal are you thinking - this is just the opening act.
这就是为什么我一直嘲笑那些在谈论世界在疫情大流行后“恢复正常”的人。对不起，你在想什么呢？这只是开胃菜。
Anti vaxxer: I can survive a 95 °F wet bulb temperature.
Texas 2075: oh, no. The power went out.
坚决抗拒疫苗的人：我能在95°华氏度的温度下生存。
德克萨斯2075：哦，不，停电了。
You had a little typo there. Try 2030.
你打错字喽。2030年才对。
That's not even limited to anti Vax people. Nobody is paying attention. Canada had a huge heat wave and it was killing people off. Worse it was killing off huge swaths of crops and farmers cattle were dying in the fields or getting heat exhaustion already.
The famine is going to get a lot of people too.
这甚至不限于反疫苗的人。完全都没人注意到。加拿大现在正有着一个巨大的热浪，它正在夺去人们的生命。更糟糕的是，它正在摧毁大片的庄稼，农民们的牛不是中暑就是在田地里死去了。
饥荒也将使许多人丧生。
Man, I want off this ride.
just give it a little bit of time
老兄，我想下车了。
给点时间吧
The thing about living life is nobody makes it out alive.
重点在于没有人能活着闯过这一关。
On the other hand, 10 years ago we were talking about 4-5C of warming being the worst case, and 2C being acceptable. So a current 2.7C pathway represents progress, which comes from the huge cost reductions in solar and wind power, batteries and the electrification of road transport, LED lighting, electrification of heating, and so on. Which is happening partly through industry innovation and partly through government mandates. It means we only need to increase the pressure, and we stand a decent chance of getting close to 2C of warming. And every step will reduce the risk and potential damage.
Edit: There are talks next week in Glasgow on tackling the issue, we need to get on with it.
另一方面，10年前我们曾讨论过变暖4-5摄氏度是最糟糕的情况，2摄氏度反而是可以接受的。因此，目前的2.7摄氏度代表了进步，这来自于太阳能和风能、电池和道路运输电气化、LED照明、供暖电气化等方面的成本的白菜化。这部分是通过行业创新实现的，部分是通过政府授权实现的。这意味着我们只需要增加压力，我们有相当大的机会达成2摄氏度的变暖目标。每一步都将降低对这个世界产生的风险和潜在损害。
编辑：下周在格拉斯哥有关于解决这个问题的会议，我们需要继续前进。
Thank you for putting this in perspective and injecting some hope into the conversation. Obviously things still need a lot of fixing but sometimes these threads feel masturbatory in their collective pessimism
感谢你正确地看待这一点，并为大家注入了一些希望。显然，我们还有大量的事情要做，但有时这些乐观的态度在集体悲观情绪中感觉像在自慰一样
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Excessive pessimism is comforting because if everything is lost it means you can give up.
过度悲观就舒服了，因为如果你已经失去了一切，就意味着你可以自暴自弃了。
I'm seeing a lot of people jumping straight from being deniers to 'acceptors'. They aren't going to do anything no matter what.
我看到很多人从否认者直接跳到“接受者”。但不管发生什么，他们都不会做任何事。
I've tried nothing, and I'm all out of ideas.
我就是。我什么都没做过，我也没有任何主意。
I often get stuck in this mindset. It's sad that an apocalyptic future sometimes sounds more appealing than having to work 5 days a week for the next 40-50 years of my life
我经常陷入这种心态。令人悲哀的是，一个启示录般的未来有时听起来比在我未来的40-50年中每周工作5天更有吸引力
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
I really struggle with anxiety and the common Reddit refrain of ‘we are all so fucked’ really doesn’t help. I keep reminding myself to think about positive changes and the things that I can do to help but sometimes being on Reddit really makes that difficult.
我真的在与焦虑作斗争，而常见的网友反复说的“我们全搞砸了”真的没用。我不断提醒自己要去想事情积极的一面，以及我可以做些什么来帮助自己，但有时你看到这些帖子确实会让这变得很困难。
If the pandemic has taught me anything, its that no amount of evidence or consequence will sway a statistically significant fraction of moron humans from denying it AND actively trying to ruin any attempt to resolve the problem.
如果说大流行教会了我什么的话，那就是无论有多少证据或结果都不会动摇相当大一部分白痴人否认它并积极尝试破坏任何解决问题的尝试。
Yup. I was pretty optimistic about our ability to halt or reverse climate change until the pandemic. But the past year has made me thoroughly lose my faith in humanity.
是的。在大流行之前，我对我们阻止或扭转气候变化的能力相当乐观。但过去的一年让我彻底失去了对人性的信心。
I can't say I was optimistic before the pandemic but yeah it's totally cemented it for me. Half the population can't occasionally wear a piece of cloth on their face to save their lives, they'd be screetching like toddlers if asked to cut down on consumption and emissions.
我不会说在流感大流行之前我是乐观的，但确实，这对我来说是毫无问题的。这里有一半的人不能做到在脸上戴一块布来拯救自己的生命，如果要求他们减少消费和排放，他们会像蹒跚学步的孩子一样尖叫。
Same here man. The whole thing looks extremely dark. It’s too hard to dwell on the immense suffering and loss humanity will experience in the next few centuries. I just try to focus on being thankful that I’m here when I am and will be dead before 2090. Soak up natural beauty whenever I can, cherish days with nice weather, remain grateful for plentiful agriculture and fresh water. That “selfish” mindset focusing on my own lifetime is the only way I can really stave off the hopelessness.
我也是，伙计。整件事看起来非常黑暗。很难细想人类在未来几个世纪将经历的巨大痛苦和损失。我只是试着集中精力去感谢我在这里的时光，我肯定在2090年之前就已经死了。尽可能地享受自然美景，珍惜好天气的日子，对丰收的农业和充足的淡水心存感激。那种专注于自己一生的“自私”心态是我真正摆脱绝望的唯一途径。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Next few centuries? Try decades...
下个世纪？我看是下个十年吧...
We got 20-30 years before the dystopia becomes reality. I've provided some lixs, but you have to project the graphs out.
The ocean is taking all the extra heat. The ocean has like 20-30 years before it's too hot for coral and too polluted with plastic to support life. That's like 1/4 of human population unable to eat or support themselves. Also there goes at least 50%-80% of O2. Yup we're gonna run out of O2.
If we're lucky the icecaps will last another 20-30 years. I'm talking the north and south poles along with greenland's and other nations glaciers. That ice reflects 80% of sunlight back into space. When they melt we're in for some terrible feedback loops.
Then there's the permafrost melting which is releasing methane.
When the icecaps melt, sea levels will rise displacing hundreds of millions if not billions of people.
It's nice how much of reddit believes or wants to believe we've got some chance at stopping this, but we can't even get half the population to believe Covid is real even when their in the hospital unable to breathe. We're totally fucked
在反乌托邦成为现实之前，我们还有20-30年的时间。我已经提供了一些链接，但是你必须把图表投影出来才更直观。
海洋正在吸收所有额外的热量。海洋将过20-30年对珊瑚来说才会变得太热，届时被塑料污染而无法维持珊瑚的存在。这相当于四分之一的人口无法喂饱或养活自己。此外，至少有50%-80%的氧气短缺。是的，氧气快用完了。
如果我们幸运的话，冰川还会持续存在20-30年。我说的是北极和南极以及格陵兰和其他国家的冰川。冰将80%的阳光反射回太空。当它们融化时，我们会陷入一些糟糕的恶性循环。
然后是永霜冻土融化，释放出甲烷。
当冰盖融化时，海平面将上升，数亿甚至数十亿人将流离失所。
网上有多少人相信或试着相信我们有机会阻止这种情况呢？这是好事，但我们甚至无法让一半的人相信新冠病毒是真的，即使他们在医院里无法呼吸。我们完蛋了
In Germany we honestly have a heated debate about whether introducing a general speed limit of 130km/h would be a good idea to help reduce emissions and save lifes. Only far left is clearly in favour, not even the greens. Germans love their car more than they love their children.
在德国，我们有一场激烈的辩论，关于引入汽车130公里/小时的限速是否是一个有助于减少排放和拯救生命的好主意。只有极左派明显赞成，甚至绿党也不赞成。德国人爱他们的汽车胜过爱他们的孩子。
Two things
First, people forget that the average intelligence of humans, is literally the average. That means half of us are below average intelligence and the other half are above it. We will always be a planet half filled with morons.
Second, COVID showed us the worst side of humanity but also the best side. I'm blown away that we got a vaccine out after about a year. I'm still optimistic that we'll find our global warming vaccine. The question is how much shit needs to get fucked up before it happens.
我要说两件事
首先，人们忘记了人类的智力实际上有个平均水平。这意味着我们中的一半智力低于平均水平，另一半则高于平均水平。我们将永远是一个白痴占一半的星球（这观点有点意思）。
第二，新冠病毒向我们展示了人类最坏的一面，但也展示了最好的一面。大约一年后我们研制出了疫苗，这让我大吃一惊。我仍然对我们能发明应对全球变暖的“疫苗”持乐观态度。问题是在它被发明出来之前，有多少狗屎需要被搞砸。
It's actually worse than that. Critical thinking skills that allow you to think outside your expertise are abnormal.
You have brain surgeons denying covid, they are nowhere near below average intelligence but beyond the scope of their field they're functionally a moron.
事实上比这更糟。让你在专业知识之外思考的批判性思维技能是不同寻常的。
甚至有脑外科医生否认新冠病毒的存在，他们的智力远高于平均水平，但这超出了他们的领域，他们在自己专业外表现得就像个白痴。
I'd encounter people I genuinely thought to be moronic assholes maybe once every couple months. I read statistics about how X% of Americans believe stupid shit Y, but I always blissfully assumed the light outshines the dark, science and reason eventually prevails. Now, dumb assholes seem like they're everywhere and I'm not so sure rationale thought has much of a fighting chance...and that's just in the face of relatively simple concepts...like wearing masks and social distancing.
We are absolutely fucked with climate change.
我遇到过一些我真的认为是白痴的人，也许每两个月就会遇到一次。我读到过关于百分之多少的美国人如何相信愚蠢的狗屎的统计数据，但我总是幸福地认为邪不压正，科学和理性最终会占上风。但现在看来，愚蠢的傻x似乎无处不在，我不确定他们占多大的数量…而这只是之于相对简单的概念…比如戴口罩和保持社交距离。
我们会把气候变化搞砸的，毫无疑问。
Suddenly all those moments in history where bright potentially good societies were ruined by extremists make a lot more sense.
突然之间，历史上那些光明的、有潜力的社会被极端分子摧毁的时刻变得更有意义了。
It only takes one moron shitting in the well to poison an entire village.
只要有一个白痴在井里大便，就能毒死整个村庄的人。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
In the past, we could peer pressure one moron in a village to not shit in a well. But morons found each other on social media and banded together, making peer pressure ineffective.
过去，我们可以向村里的一个白痴施压，让他不要在井里拉屎。但现在白痴们在社交媒体上找到了彼此并团结在一起，使得正确价值观对他们的压力变得无效。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
I love this.
绝了。
Zombies (the shuffling mindless horde kind) destroying modern civilization - with a modern military - makes SO much more sense now. There would be leaders telling whole countries that nothing is wrong, morons going out to get bit on purpose, and contrarian extremists sneaking into pockets of resistance only to throw open the gates in the middle of the night.
Modern chip manufacturing and biomedical [everything] requires the kind of steady power and clean water supplies that cannot exist except in a well-functioning, stable society. Things are already stalling with the shortages but the benefits of modern living, even ‘basic’ stuff like cars and medicine, are going to very quickly become unavailable to most people if the fabric of society unravels even a little.
丧尸们（游手好闲的傻x）摧毁了现代文明 - 同时我们有着一支庞大的军队可以避免此事发生 - 现在变得有意义多了。一个国家会有一个领导人告诉全世界，干什么是对的，干什么是错的，但傻x们会故意反着来，这群家伙就像特洛伊木马一样，在半夜把大门打开，把一切搞砸。
现代芯片制造业和生物医学或者说，所有一切，都需要稳定的电力和清洁的水供应，而这只有在运转良好、稳定的社会中才能存在。由于这些资源的短缺，社会运转已经陷入停滞，但如果社会结构哪怕有一点点的解体，现代化生活的益处，甚至是汽车和药品等“基本的”东西，将很快无法为大多数人所享受。
You want to really mess up your shit? The Bronze age collapse shows just how fragile a technological society can be. All the more we have to cherish what we have and fight to keep it alive. Eternal vigilance is not just the price of liberty. Its the price of everything we hold dear.
你真的想把事情搞砸吗？青铜时代的崩溃表明了一个技术性的社会是多么脆弱。我们更需要珍惜我们所拥有的，并为之奋斗。永远保持警惕，这付出的将不仅仅是自由的代价。这将是我们所珍视的一切。