QA:有没有哪个非洲国家有潜力在经济上超过中国？

Paul Denlinger
, Have lived in China, Taiwan and Hong Kong; fluent in Mandarin (written, spoken)，Lives in Huntington Beach, CA
No.
China’s biggest single asset is the 1.4B population of Chinese. Given the right tools and environment, they are smart and hard-working. Average IQ for China is 105, while for the US it is 97.
On its own, this is not significant, but there are 1.4B Chinese and 320M Americans. This is a big advantage in the aggregate, and explains why in any competition between the US and China, there is NO WAY that the US can win in the end.
This is not to say that Africans are not smart and not hard-working; they are smart and hard-working given the right conditions. However they underwent several centuries of brutal treatment and exploitation by the colonial powers, and when they became independent, they had difficult times under independence.
Now they are getting their act together. Rwanda is one example of a country which underwent a horrible incident less than 30 years ago, but is now making a great recovery.
The other issue is that for most African countries, they made their money on natural resource exports instead of educating their own people, which is VERY unlike China.
This means that if African countries are going to compete with China, they have to TAKE EDUCATION AS SERIOUSLY AS THE CHINESE DO. This requires not just a government shift, but a cultural shift.
Because no African nation has China’s population numbers, and the society does not have the cultural values, in particular the high value placed on education, learning and very INTENSE COMPETITION AMONG CHINESE WITH EACH OTHER (almost no non-Chinese know about this, but it is VERY REAL), no African country can surpass China.
So the right question to ask then is “How can we compete with China, but on a scale which is appropriate to our own smaller size and population?”
Another smart question is to ask: “What has the government of Rwanda been able to do, and how can we apply that to our own society to become more prosperous and grow?” Rwanda is an African country, so it is not as much of a stretch compared to China, which only has conditions China can meet, and not any single African country.
That is a MUCH smarter and more attainable target.

没有。
中国最大的单一资产是14亿中国人。他们既聪明又勤奋，你只需给他们提供一个合适的环境即可。
中国人的平均智商是105，而美国是97。就其本身而言，这并不重要，但中国有14亿人而美国只有3.2亿人。这在总体上是一大优势，这也解释了为什么在美中之间的任何竞争中，美国最终都不可能获胜。
这并不是说非洲人不聪明、不勤奋；在适当的条件下，他们既聪明又勤奋。然而，他们经历了几个世纪的殖民列强的残酷对待和剥削，当他们独立时，他们又经历了一段很困难的时期。
现在他们正在行动起来。比如卢旺达是一个在不到30年前经历了一次可怕事件的国家，但现在它们正恢复得很好。
另一个问题在于，对大多数非洲国家来说，他们靠出口自然资源而不是教育本国人民来赚钱，这与中国有很大的不同。
这意味着，如果非洲国家要与中国竞争，他们必须像中国人一样认真对待教育。这不仅需要政府方面的转变，还需要文化方面的转变。
由于没有一个非洲国家拥有中国的人口数量，非洲的社会也没有相应的文化价值观，特别是高度重视教育、重视学习和激烈的竞争，所以没有一个非洲国家能够超越中国。
因此，正确的问题应该是“我们如何才能在较小的规模和人口上与中国竞争？”
另一个聪明的问题是：“卢旺达政府做了什么，我们如何将其应用到我们自己的社会中，使其变得更加繁荣”？卢旺达是一个非洲国家，因此与中国相比，它与其他非洲国家没有太大区别。
这是一个更明智、更容易实现的目标。

Khengchat Ng
The Chinese take education very seriously but unfortunately, it is almost always the exam-oriented one. Creativity is juiced out of students to get them to conform to the style that will help them to pass exams. China recently has enacted laws to minimize/outlaw private tuition on pupils’ free times. Parents pay to get exam results, and tuition centres will comply with the ‘right’ teaching methods. Hopefully this is the first step towards creative graduates. The world needs China to produce cutting edge innovative minds if they replace US as the number one economy. STEM technocrats just won’t do.

中国人非常重视教育，但不幸的是，它几乎一直都是应试教育。中国最近颁布了新的法律，尽量减少/取缔了学生在空闲时间的私人补习，希望这是迈向创新型毕业生的第一步。如果中国要取代美国成为世界头号经济体，那就需要中国培养出最前沿的创新人才，仅有STEM技术官僚是不够的。

Just Brian
easy to blame Europeans for dividing the place up without regard to tribes, leading to a good deal of post colonial civil war, but even in those places where this was not done, Ethiopia, for example, the place is still underdeveloped.

人们很容易责怪欧洲人不分部落地将非洲分割开来，这导致了大量的后殖民时期的内战。但即使在那些欧洲殖民者没有这样做的地方，例如埃塞俄比亚，该地区也同样不发达。

Claudio Oliveira
Very good answer I think culture is also a barrier for African countries because of tribalism…

很好的回答，由于部落主义，我认为文化也是非洲国家发展的障碍…

Paul Denlinger
Rwanda has been able to overcome tribalism after one very bloody genocide.
It would be good if other African nations can also overcome tribalism without having to go through a genocide.

卢旺达在经历了一次非常血腥的种族灭绝之后，终于克服了部落主义。
如果其他非洲国家也能克服部落主义而不必经历种族灭绝，那将是一件好事。

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Michael Ciao
, Business Owner Investor (1977-present)，Lives in San Francisco Bay Area
No, but that is the wrong mental approach, each African country should build its own economy for better life for all its people, instead of a competition.
If all countries are prosperous and peaceful, what a wonderful world it will be for all mankind.

没有，但这是错误的思维方式。每个非洲国家都应该建设自己的经济，为全体人民创造更好的生活，而不是为了和谁竞争。
如果所有国家都能繁荣和平，那么对全人类来说，这将是一个多么美好的世界。

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Tywin Rokana
, Sneaker Designer
Why matching a toddler with a giant that competes with the USA? South Africa has the potential to be a global powerhouse with its capitalist free enterprise system, large diverse economy and 55 million strong population. The problem is South Africans were deprived of high quality education and disciplinary leadership that moulds a hardworking culture.
Rwanda is too small, only 5 million people and the culture of education hasn't started taking shape yet. However, Paul Kagame is doing a good job of instilling values, building a culture of hard work and principled leadership. The question is, what will happen when he leaves? African countries are known to regress when a good leader is gone.
But before you think about China, you have to aim to achieve the status of Thailand and Malaysia and then progress to Singapore, South Korea or Japan. All these countries are doing well, much better than Africa.

为什么要把一个蹒跚学步的孩子和一个能与美国竞争的巨人相比较呢？南非拥有资本主义自由企业制度、巨大的多样化经济和5500万人口，它有潜力成为全球强国。问题是南非人被剥夺了塑造勤奋文化的高质量的教育和纪律领导能力。
卢旺达太小了，它只有500万人口，它的纪律文化还没有形成。然而，保罗·卡加梅（Paul Kagame，卢旺达总统）在灌输价值观、建立努力工作和有纪律的领导文化方面做得很好。问题是，他离开后会发生什么？众所周知，当一位好的领导人离开时，非洲国家往往会倒退。
在你想到中国之前，你必须先达到泰国和马来西亚的水平，然后再发展到新加坡、韩国或日本的水平。所有这些国家都做得很好，比非洲好得多。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

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Kanhoji Angre
, former Author of Several Books
Per capita : Yes.
Total gdp : No.
Any African nation can prosper at rapid pace if they dump their socialist economies and adopt a much free market capitalism. There is not reason why Madagascar or Botswana can not be new Singapore.
A few free trade treaties with rest of Africa, India, etc. can help them grow real fast.
In terms of total GDP however is impossible because China has world’s greatest resource “humans”.

人均：是的。
总量：不可能。
如果他们抛弃社会主义经济，实行资本主义自由市场经济，任何一个非洲国家都可以快速繁荣，马达加斯加或博茨瓦纳没有理由不能成为新新加坡。
与非洲其他国家、印度等签订一些自由贸易条约可以帮助它们快速发展。
然而，就GDP总量而言，这是不可能的，因为中国拥有世界上最大的资源：“人”。

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Alvin Lee
, former Engineering Manager in EMS Industry (Retired).
Yes, and China is very much hoping that Africa had surpassed China economically today so that US can just spend time attacking Africa and leave China alone to quietly continuing with her own progress like the past 30 years.
Honestly, every country has the potential to surpass any other countries, given that the country leader is the right right and the team that helping the leader is a great team and for the people and all are having one heart towards the betterment of the country.
Never look down on any country and never called them shithole countries. They are as equal as we are !
But a word of advice to the questioner. African should concentrate on building it’s own economy for the sake of improving their own people’s living standards, not for the competition to surpass any countries.
China’s target is ~ every year surpass its previous year’s standards.

是的，中国非常希望非洲能在经济上超过中国，这样美国就可以花时间去攻击非洲，让中国像过去30年里那样静静地继续自己的进步。
老实说，如果领导团队是一个伟大的团队，是为人民服务的团队，所有人都对国家的发展怀有一颗心，那么每个国家都有超越任何其他国家的潜力。
永远不要瞧不起任何国家，也不要称它们为狗屎国家。他们和我们一样是平等的！
但是我要给提问者一句忠告。非洲人应该集中精力发展自己的经济，这是为了提高他们自己人民的生活水平，而不是为了超越任何其他国家。
中国的目标是一年比一年更好。

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Johnathan Smith
, lives in The United States of America
For the most part definitely not. China’s 1.4B people is the main driving force of its economic growth, so it will be virtually impossible for any African nation to reach the total economic output and influence that China has. But this is not to say that they cannot be economically prosperous. Since African countries are smaller than China they do not need to match anywhere near the total output of China to do well. In some measures they can do better, like GDP per capita.

在大多数情况下，肯定没有哪个国家可以超过中国。中国14亿人口是其经济增长的主要动力，因此任何非洲国家都不可能达到中国的经济总产出和影响力。但这并不是说他们不可能在经济上达成繁荣。由于非洲国家比中国小，所以它们不需要接近中国总产出就能取得好成绩。在某些方面，比如人均GDP上，他们可以做得更好。