QA:直布罗陀会还给西班牙吗？
Will Gibraltar be ever returned to Spain？
译文简介
直布罗陀是位于伊比利亚半岛南端的英国海外领土。 ]它的面积为6.7平方公里（2.6平方英里），北面与西班牙接壤。风景以直布罗陀巨岩（海格力斯之柱）为主，直布罗陀山山脚下是一个人口稠密的城镇地区，居住着32000多人，主要是直布罗陀人。
正文翻译
Gibraltar (/dʒɪˈbrɔːltər/ jih-BRAWL-tər, Spanish: [xiβɾalˈtaɾ]) is a British Overseas Territory located at the southern tip of the Iberian Peninsula.[5][6] It has an area of 6.7 km2 (2.6 sq mi) and is bordered to the north by Spain. The landscape is dominated by the Rock of Gibraltar at the foot of which is a densely populated town area, home to over 32,000 people, primarily Gibraltarians
In 1704, Anglo-Dutch forces captured Gibraltar from Spain during the War of the Spanish Succession on behalf of the Habsburg claim to the Spanish throne. The territory was ceded to Great Britain in perpetuity under the Treaty of Utrecht in 1713. During the Napoleonic Wars and World War II it was an important base for the Royal Navy as it controlled the entrance and exit to the Mediterranean Sea, the Strait of Gibraltar, which is only 14.3 km (8.9 mi) wide at this naval choke point. It remains strategically important, with half the world's seaborne trade passing through the strait.Today Gibraltar's economy is based largely on tourism, online gambling, financial services and bunkering.
The sovereignty of Gibraltar is a point of contention in Anglo-Spanish relations because Spain asserts a claim to the territory.[15][12] Gibraltarians rejected proposals for Spanish sovereignty in a 1967 referendum and, in a 2002 referendum, the idea of shared sovereignty was also rejected.
On 31 January 2020, the UK and Gibraltar left the European unx. In December 2020, the UK and Spain agreed in principle to a basis on which the UK and the EU might negotiate terms for Gibraltar to participate in aspects of the Schengen Agreement
直布罗陀是位于伊比利亚半岛南端的英国海外领土。 ]它的面积为6.7平方公里（2.6平方英里），北面与西班牙接壤。风景以直布罗陀巨岩（海格力斯之柱）为主，直布罗陀山山脚下是一个人口稠密的城镇地区，居住着32000多人，主要是直布罗陀人。
1704年，英荷联军在西班牙王位继承战争期间，代表哈布斯堡王朝夺取了西班牙的直布罗陀王权。根据1713年的乌德勒支和约，这块领土被永久割让给大不列颠。
在拿破仑战争和第二次世界大战期间，它是英国皇家海军的一个重要基地，因为它控制着地中海的直布罗陀海峡进出口，直布罗陀海峡这个海军的咽喉之地只有14.3公里（8.9英里）宽。它仍然具有重要的战略意义，世界一半的海运贸易都要经过这海峡。今天，直布罗陀的经济主要依靠旅游业、在线赌博，金融服务以及加油服务。
直布罗陀的主权是英西关系中的一个争议点，因为西班牙声称对该领土拥有主权。直布罗陀人在1967年的全民公决中拒绝了西班牙主权的提议，在2002年的直布罗陀全民公决中，共同主权的想法也被拒绝（指西班牙与英国共享领土主权）。
2020年1月31日，英国和直布罗陀退出欧盟。2020年12月，英国和西班牙达成了某个共识，在此基础上，英国和欧盟可以就直布罗陀参与申根协定的条款进行谈判。
（译注：申根协定（Schengen Agreement），1985年6月14日，德国、法国、荷兰、比利时和卢森堡五国在卢森堡边境小镇申根签署了《关于逐步取消共同边界检查》协定（又称《申根协定》），其宗旨意在取消各成员国之间边境，自由通行，无限期居住，现共有成员国26个。）
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Probably.
Gibraltar has, historically, been first and foremost a military base. When it was captured in the XVIII century, it performed this role just fine.
However, today it is much too small to properly support, on its own, control of the strait of Gibraltar. Said control is obtained through a multitude of military facilities (ports, airports, barracks) spread out throughout the south of the Iberian peninsula and North Africa. And I’m afraid they aren’t run by the UK.
In addition to the obsolescence of point defense in modern warfare (the point being Gibraltar’s 6.8 square km surface area), the UK just isn’t what it used to be. Gibraltar is not garrisoned, and the only permanent watercraft based there are two small patrol boats. How long would these facilities hold out in the face of a concerted assault? It hasn’t been attempted since the XVIII century, but contemporary estimates are in the 8 hour range.
So, given Gibraltar’s military importance is much lower than it once was, meaning Gibraltarians can no longer expect to live off of the military base, and given that the colony has a very high economic reliance on Spain (for workers and raw materials entering through its land border), how viable would Gibraltar be in the event of a border closure?
My guess is not very much, and I expect that Brexit will result in one of two scenarios: 1. Gibraltar remaining fully British, but in an economic shambles as a result of measures applied by Spain at the border and its exclusion from the EU; or 2. The return of Gibraltar to Spain.
Gibraltarians are today staunchly against option 2, but poverty makes patriotism lose its allure real fast, and losing half of your GDP overnight might make you reconsider your political situation.
Time will tell though.
可能会。直布罗陀历来是最重要的军事基地，当他在十八世纪被占领的时候，他很好的扮演了这个角色。
然而，今天它的规模太小，单靠此是支撑不了对直布罗陀海峡的控制的。所说的控制是通过遍布伊比利亚半岛南部和北非的众多军事设施（港口、机场、兵营）获得的。这些地方应该不是由英国统治的地区吧。
除此之外，点防御已经过时（这里的点是指直布罗陀6.8平方公里的面积。），而且英国已经日薄西山。直布罗陀没有驻军，唯一的永久海军基地只有两艘小型巡逻艇。这点设施在面对协同攻击的时候，能维持多久？从十八世纪之后，就再没有人尝试过，就目前而言， 估计能抵抗的时间不超过八小时。
因此，鉴于直布罗陀的军事重要性比过去低得多，这意味着直布罗陀人别在指望依靠军事基地为生了，而且鉴于该殖民地在经济上对西班牙有很重的依赖性（通过陆地边界进入的工人和原材料），那么直布罗陀在西班牙关闭边境的情况下能有多能耐呢？
我简单的预测下，我估计英国脱欧会导致两种情况：
1，直布罗陀仍然完全归英国，但由于西班牙在边境采取措施，将其排除在欧盟之外，会使其经济陷入混论。
2，直布罗陀回归西拔牙。
当今的直布罗陀坚决反对第二种选择，但贫穷很快就让其爱国主义失去吸引力，一夜之间失去一半的国内生产总值可能会使其重新考虑自己的政治情况。
No - a big misunderstanding. Especially after Brexit there is no chance. Might as well ask if Cuba, Argentina or the Philippines will be returned to Spain.
不会，这是一个很大的误会。尤其是英国脱欧后，更没没有机会了。不妨问问古巴、阿根廷或菲律宾是否会被归还给西班牙。
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Time will tell, of course.
Ever since the loss of India, the British have proven themselves to be quite incapable of holding on to anything much larger than a big boulder. As recently as 2002, Tony Blair was prepared to give up Gibraltar in exchange for a base there.
For the time being, we have a tax agreement and memoranda that will limit Gibraltar’s ability to leech off of Spain and the EU. It’s cold out there, outside of the EU. Nowhere more so than in Gibraltar.
当然，时间会证明一切。
自从失去印度以来，英国人已经证明了他们完全没能力保住比一块大石头大得多的任何东西（译注：这里的大石头指直布罗陀岛，因为这个岛屿比较贫瘠，到处都是石头，整个岛屿基本都是石头组成）。
就在2002年，托尼·布莱尔（英国首相）就打算放弃直布罗陀，以换取那里的一个基地。
就目前而言，我们有一项税收协定和备忘录，将限制直布罗陀从西班牙和欧盟榨取资金的能力。离开欧盟会很惨，而脱欧对直布罗陀会更惨。
Leach off Spain? Explain what that means? You need to understand how Britain works - if the population want to leave, or become independent or join the New Mexican Empire or China they can via a referendum - this is quite different from the Spanish approach to Catalunya for example. Historically totalitarian regimes like Spain can’t get to grips with this. Galtieri has similar thought processes in 1982, and look where that got him.
离开西班牙？你啥意思？
你需要了解英国是如何运作的——如果民众想离开，或者独立，或者加入新墨西哥帝国或者中国，他们可以通过公投——这与西班牙对待加泰罗尼亚的方式有很大不同。从历史上来看，像西班牙这样的极权主义政权无法应对这种问题。加尔铁里在1982年也有类似的想法，可以看看他的下场。
（译注：加尔铁里：阿根廷军政府总统。他因支持1976年推翻民主政府的军事政变，被政变后当权军政府提拔。1981年他访问美国，被罗纳德·里根总统视为反对共产主义的盟友并热情接待。同年他成为总统，继续实行独裁政策，禁止罢工和抗议，杀害左翼人士，经济上支持大地主和资本家。他的独裁统治引起广大不满，为转移国内注意力，他在1982年入侵英国海外领土马尔维纳斯群岛，于是马岛战争爆发。撒切尔夫人下令英军反击，阿根廷军失败，同年他被迫卸任总统及上将职位。1983年军政府倒台后，他因践踏人权的罪行而被捕，1991年被特赦。英国通过本次战争重新控制了英属马尔维纳斯，但是阿根廷从未放弃对英属马尔维纳斯群岛的主权诉求。）
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Yes… Ireland, Kenya, Cyprus, South Africa…
All example of how the British never leave a place until their boys start coming back home in body bags.
是的，爱尔兰，肯尼亚，塞浦路斯，南非………
所有的例子都说明了英国人在见到他们的孩子被运尸袋运回国之前，是不会离开的。
Bring it on baby
干你娘，有种就来。
It won’t be needed.
I predict the British will be doing a Hong Kong in Gibraltar in the next few years.
不用来。我预测英国将在未来几年在直布罗陀建立一个香港。
I believe that is your wish Nostradamus, I believe neither the Gibraltarians nor the British will allow that to happen, body bags or otherwise.
我认为这是你的愿望，不管是运尸袋或者其他的，我相信不论是直布罗陀人还是英国人都不会允许这种事情发生。
Easy, Rambo.
The British will walk away as they’ve walked away from everywhere else they’ve ever been for the last 75 years.
No need for any violence in this case.
杠你妈呢，就像在过去的75年里那样，英国人将像他们离开任何地方一样离开。不需要任何武力。
Greeting from the rock of Gibraltar, NO we will NEVER be Spanish
我们从来就不是西班牙人，来自直布罗陀的问候。
Ceuta and Melilla are Spanish since 16th century. Way before the kingdom of Morocco.
They are no colonies, as they have representation as any province at the Congress, like Canary islands or Madrid.
早在摩洛哥王国统治休达和梅利利亚之前，他们就是西班牙人，他们不是殖民地，他们和马德里，加那利群岛一样在国会中拥有省级代表。
（译注：休达和梅利利亚都是西班牙的自由市，是位于北非地中海海岸的飞地，属于欧洲联盟的一部分，是西班牙在非洲大陆上的最后领土。摩洛哥一直坚持拥有这两地的主权，对此，两国一直存在争议。）
Pete Peters
, studied at Harvard University
YES
There is a Famous Chinese proverb :
“ Gibraltar will be returned to Spain when Spain becomes as strong as China”.
This proverb came in the 1970s, when the Uk and the People’s Republic of China where negotiating the return of Hong Kong. The Uk proposed to China, that the Uk will continue to “administer” Hong Kong, but China can have “de jure” sovereigty. The reply of Deng Xiaoping is the famous”:
“We can take Hong Kong in less than 4 hours and come back to have some tea !”
The meme(lie) about the Hong Kong handover is that “ it was handed over because there was a 99 year- old lease. This is complete BULLSHEET!
The TRUTH Is that Hong Kong island and Kowloon where “ ceded in perpetuity” ( sound familiar with Gibraltar?), only the “New Territories “ were leased from the Qing dynasty. This land was not populated, to this day, is mostly a huge forest-park. People didnt settle there because they knew it had to handed over, but HK island and Kowloon didnt have to be handed over, because they were “ in perpetuity”, right? so a lie had to be invented in order to “save face”. That was that “prc could just cut the water supply”. This is ridiculous, when they can just build desalination plants, and hand over the territory to Taiwan( Republic of China) , which is the successor state of the Qing dynasty.
at the end of the day, geography always wins. It does not matter if it takes 1,000 years, you just have to study world history and see that always has been the case.
会的。中国有句著名的谚语：“当西班牙和中国一样强大时，直布罗陀将被归还给西班牙”。这句谚语出现在20世纪70年代，当时英国和中国谈判香港回归的问题。英国向中国提议，英国继续"管理"香港，但中国可以拥有“合法”的主权。邓小平的回答是成为了经典"：我们用不到4小时就可以让香港回家喝茶。”
关于移交香港的模因（谎言）是：香港有99年的租约到期了。这种说法完全是胡说八道。
事实是，香港岛和九龙是“永久割让”（是不是和直布罗陀的情况很雷同？），只有“新界”是从清朝租用的。而新界这片土地没有人居住，直到今天，基本就是一个巨大的森林公园。人们没有选择在那里定居，是因为他们知道新界肯定会被移交的，但香港岛和九龙不必移交，因为他们是“永久的”，对吧？因此，为了“面子”，必须编造谎言。那就是“中国可以直接切断供水”。这是荒谬的，他们可以建立海水淡化厂的，并且可以移交领土给台湾（中华民国），这是清朝的继承国。
归根结底，地理总是胜出的。就算过了1000年，这道理也一样，你只要研究一下世界历史，就会发现事实一直如此。
James Foulds
, UK resident since 1959.
'Ever' is a long time...
So, probably.
Certainly, if the locals (the Gibraltarians) decided they'd like to be a part of Spain because it offered advantages to them compared to the current arrangement, I see no real reason why the UK wouldn't 'return' Gibraltar to Spain. (Though I reckon Gibraltarian independence as a member of the EU would be more likely!).
Plus, who's to say that in (say) 100 years, the idea of a nation state might have evolved to the point where the question is meaningless?
However, as long as the locals wish to remain citizens of a British overseas territory & the UK is prepared to honour that wish, why should it be returned to Spain?
The UN has pretty strict rules regards the wishes of locals and the way the future of the country is determined. The wishes of the locals should be paramount.
Besides, if Gibraltar went back to being a part of Spain, wouldn't the Spanish N.African territories have to be returned to Morocco? (Assuming the residents of the enclaves supported these re-integrations).
当然可以，如果当地人（直布罗陀人）决定他们愿意成为西班牙的一部分的话，因为与目前的情况相比，他们回归将会更有利，但我看不出英国拒绝“返回”直布罗陀的真正原因(尽管我认为直布罗陀作为欧盟成员国独立的可能性更大！）。
另外谁又能断定，在以后，比如在100年内，民族国家的概念会不会变得毫无意义呢。然而，只要当地人愿意当英国的海外领地公民，英国就会履行这一愿望，所以他干嘛要还给西班牙呢。
联合国对当地人的意愿和决定国家未来的方式有相当严格的规定，当地人的意愿必须是至高无上的。
此外，如果直布罗陀应该重新成为西班牙一部分的话，那么西班牙的北非领土难道不应该归还给摩洛哥吗(假设海外领地的居民支持回归的话）。
Douglas Cumming
, lives in Gibraltar
Never.
who answers and comments above, is badly and sadly misinformed. Or perhaps intentionally misinforming.
Gibraltar has not "lived off the military base" for decades. We have already been been blackmailed economically, through a closed frontier, for 16 years. We have already experienced the withdrawal of Spanish labour etc. And we have survived, nay, we have prospered.
Apu’s comments below are replete with Spanish propaganda. Terms like "colony", ''Tax Haven' etc could have come directly from the 'Palacio de la Moncloa', (and perhaps they did!)
To quote a former Governor "Gibraltar is neither Spain’s to claim nor Britain’s to give. It is the Rock of the Gibraltarians.”
绝不。
我想说楼上答主Apu的答题和评论是非常垃圾和悲哀的。不然就是他在故意误导大家。
我们直布罗陀几十年来并没有靠军事基地卫生，西班通过边境封锁打压我们的经济至少16年。我们经历了西班牙劳工等的撤离，但是我们还是活了下来，不，是我们更繁荣了
Apu的评论充满了西班牙的宣传。“殖民地”、“避税天堂”等术语可能来自“蒙克罗亚宫”。
（译注：蒙克罗亚宫是西班牙首相府邸。）
引用一位前总督的话说：“直布罗陀既不属于西班牙，也不属于英国。它是直布罗陀人的磐石。”
Amir Yagudkin
, lives in Germany
Originally Answered: Is there a possibility of Gibraltar ever becoming Spanish?
It’s highly unlikely to happen anytime soon. The population does not want to leave the UK and Spain has no way if getting Gibraltar without the British agreeing. Even if Spain ever decided they need that rock at all cost they would face the same consequences as Argentina when they tried to annex the Falklands.
这在短期内不太可能发生。人们并不想离开英国，如果没有英国的同意，西班牙就没有办法获得直布罗陀。如果西班牙决定不惜一切代价需要这块石岛，他们将面临与阿根廷试图吞并福克兰群岛时相同的后果。
Tom Pattison
, lives in Kent, UK (2017-present)
I very much doubt it. As a regular visitor to the rock I see good relations with Spain on the whole, thousands of Spaniards cross over to work in Gib very day and then return home but on the other side of the border in la Linea I see a bit of a run down sprawl. Gibraltarians I speak with a very pro Britain to the point that they voted to remain in the EU but chose to remain with Britain over staying in the EU. They are very proud of their heritage and especially the great siege. remember that very few of them are actually of Spanish descent so why would they.
我不太觉得会还给西班牙，作为直布罗陀的常客，我看到了他们与西班牙的关系不错，有很多西班牙人来直布罗陀工作，下班后回到西班牙的法拉尼亚，而我看到的法拉尼亚是衰败的。我和一个非常亲英的直布罗陀人交谈，他说他们支持留在欧盟，但最终选择了留在英国而不是欧盟。他们对自己的传统感到自豪，尤其是对直布罗陀大围攻事件感到自豪。请记住，他们中很少有人是西班牙裔，所以他们为什么要回西班牙呢?
（译注：在美国独立战争期间，西班牙和法国试图从英国手中夺取直布罗陀，但未能成功。这是战争期间发生的规模最大的一次军事行动，尤其是1782年9月的大规模进攻。三年零七个月，这是英国军队遭受的最长的围攻）
Alejandro Peralta
, weird guy who keep connection with Spanish motherland
I wish so, just… only a difficult thing:
What would Gibraltarians react with Spain?
They would never accept Spanish sovereignty inside the peninsula.
Meanwhile a military invasion would break the rule of NATO and no one would tolerate them.
The UK has military presence at the Mediterranean.
They had used it when Falklands/Malvinas was taken by Argentina.
Gibraltar and Spain can only unite once Gibraltarians feel their duty belong to Spain.
But not in the near future soon.
我希望看到直布罗陀归还给西班牙，但是这很难。如果这么干，直布罗陀人会对西班牙人做出什么反应？
他们永远不会接受西班牙拥有该半岛的主权。与此同时，如果军事入侵将会被认为是挑衅北约的统治，他们绝对不会容忍这种情况。然后英国在地中海也有军事存在，当福克兰群岛/马尔维纳斯群岛被阿根廷占领时，他们就使用了它。
只有当直布罗陀觉得他们属于西班牙时，直布罗陀和西班牙人才能团结起来。
但是在近期是不会出现这种情况的。