Bars and Restaurants Are About to Go on an Epic Post-Covid Hiring Spree
-Signs of life emerge as restaurants, salons begin staffing up
-Goldman economists see 4.1% unemployment rate by year’s end

酒吧和餐馆即将掀起一场新冠肺炎疫情后的招聘热潮
——随着餐馆和沙龙开始增加人手,生活气息开始显现
——高盛经济学家预计年底前失业率为4.1%



新闻:

The U.S. economy is set for a hiring boom in the months ahead as the coronavirus pandemic recedes. There are signs it’s already underway.

随着疫情消退,美国经济在未来几个月将迎来招聘热潮。有迹象表明,这股热潮已经开始了。

Kevin Vaughan, the owner of six bars and restaurants in the Chicago area, including the Emerald Loop Bar & Grill downtown, says he plans to double the size of his 90-person staff in the coming weeks. He’s already brought back about 40 workers in the past month as the city reopened indoor dining at 50% capacity.

凯文·沃恩在芝加哥地区拥有六家酒吧和餐厅,其中包括市中心的Emerald Loop Bar & Grill。沃恩说,他计划在未来几周将现有的90名员工数量增加一倍。在过去的一个月里,他已经召回了大约40名员工,因为该市重新开放了50%的室内餐厅。

“We’ve seen a noticeable uptick in business in the last few weeks as the weather got a little bit better,” Vaughan said. “And we’ve been rehiring people immediately.”

沃恩说:“过去几周,随着天气好转,我们看到生意明显增加了。我们一直在紧急重新招聘员工。”

Bars and restaurants across the country added almost 300,000 jobs in February, marking the first substantial increase in four months, according to Labor Department data. Forecasters say the vaccine rollout and the growth of personal savings will encourage Americans to spend, and employers will be keen to meet the demand.

美国劳工部的数据显示,全美各地的酒吧和餐馆在2月份新增了近30万个工作岗位,这是四个月来首次出现大幅增长。预测者说,疫苗的推出和个人储蓄的增长将鼓励美国人消费,而雇主们将热切地满足这一需求。
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Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. see the unemployment rate falling to 4.1% by the end of the year from 6.2% in February. Hiring should be especially swift since two thirds of the remaining pandemic job losses are in industries hard hit by the virus.

高盛集团经济学家预计,今年年底前失业率将从2月份的6.2%降至4.1%。招聘速度应该特别快,因为剩下的三分之二的失业都是在受病毒严重冲击的行业。

Among the firms already sticking up help-wanted signs are Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., which has put on 19,000 staff and managers to chop veggies and cook meat on grills over the past couple of months. Meanwhile Colorado-based Noodles & Co. is looking for cashiers, cooks and managers at its 454 locations across 29 states. The pasta chain plans to open 10 new stores this year after unit growth stalled last year amid the pandemic.

已经张贴招聘告示的公司包括Chipotle Mexican Grill,该公司在过去几个月已经招聘了19000名员工和经理来切蔬菜和在烤架上烤肉。与此同时,总部位于科罗拉多州的Noodles & Co.公司正在全美29个州的454家门店寻找收银员、厨师和经理。这家意大利面食连锁店计划今年新开10家门店。去年,由于疫情蔓延,门店增长陷入停滞。

It’s far from an all-clear for an economy that’s still down 9.5 million jobs from pre-pandemic levels. Initial jobless claims rose unexpectedly by 45,000 for the week of March 13, according to a Labor Department report Thursday, although Bloomberg Economics pinned the jump on weekly volatility and sees claims declining in the weeks ahead.

美国经济仍较大流行前的水平减少了950万个就业岗位,目前还远未达到全面恢复的水平。根据劳工部周四的报告,3月13日当周首次申请失业救济的人数出人意料地增加了4.5万人,尽管《彭博经济》将此归因于周波动,并认为未来几周申请失业救济人数将下降。

Some positions in manufacturing and other industries will be gone for good, forcing workers to hunt for work in new industries at potentially lower wages. Fast-food restaurants that have surged on drive-thru need fewer employees to clean bathrooms and check the soda machines.

制造业和其他行业的一些职位将永远消失,迫使工人们在可能工资更低的新行业寻找工作。而快速崛起的得来速快餐店则需要更少的员工来打扫浴室和检查汽水机。

The leisure and hospitality sector in particular has a long way to go. Headcount was 20%, or 3.5 million jobs, below pre-pandemic levels as of February. Employment in a category referred to by the Labor Department as personal and laundry services -- which captures everything from salons to dry-cleaners to parking garages -- was still down 16%.

尤其是休闲和酒店行业,还有很长的路要走。截至2月份,员工总数为20%,即350万个工作岗位,低于大流行前的水平。美国劳工部所称的个人和洗衣服务(包括沙龙、干洗店和车库等各种服务)领域的就业人数仍少16%。

And with all of the changes brought about by the pandemic experience and attendant uncertainty over how many of them will be permanent, it’s hard to predict where the workforce will ultimately end up.

由于大流行经历带来的所有变化,以及随之而来的不确定因素,其中有多少变化将是永久性的,很难预测劳动力最终将流向何方。

Take Minnesota-based fitness giant Life Time, for example.

以明尼苏达州的健身巨头Life Time为例。

The company wants to add back 800 personal trainers in the next few months after losing 1,700 in the past year. Managers have been rethinking their heavy use of part-time workers since the pandemic began, and they now expect to use a smaller, more full-time staff. It’s not clear Life Time will get back to the 38,000 employees it once had right away, Chief Operating Officer Jeff Zwiefel said.

在去年流失1700名私人教练之后,该公司希望在未来几个月内重新增加800名私人教练。自从疫情爆发以来,管理人员一直在重新考虑他们大量使用兼职员工的做法,现在他们希望使用更少、更全职的员工。公司首席运营官杰夫·茨维费尔表示,目前还不清楚公司是否会立即恢复38000名员工的状态。

Other employers are worried about their prospects for hiring in the near term as they compete with government programs for the unemployed. Several mentioned Congress’s renewal of the extra $300 weekly jobless benefit through early September as an impediment to hiring in the coming months.

其他雇主担心他们在短期内的招聘前景,因为他们要与政府的失业计划竞争。有几位议员提到,国会将每周额外发放的300美元失业救济金延长至9月初,这将阻碍未来几个月的就业。

Several studies in recent months have suggested the original extra $600 weekly benefit authorized by Congress last year didn’t discourage the unemployed from seeking new jobs.

最近几个月的几项研究表明,国会去年批准的每周额外600美元的福利并没有阻止失业者寻找新工作。

Still, “there still will be some people who say, ‘I’m glad to take my $300 to $400 a week and stay home rather than go out and work and earn $500 a week,’” said BTIG LLC analyst Peter Saleh, who covers the restaurant industry.

尽管如此,“还是会有一些人说,‘我很高兴每周拿着300到400美元呆在家里,而不是出去工作,每周挣500美元,’”BTIG有限公司负责分析餐饮业的分析师彼得·沙雷说。

“I expect the unemployment issue is going to continue to be an issue for the balance of this year, and some of the restaurants are going to have to pay above and beyond to make sure they have the appropriate amount of staffing,” Saleh said.

沙雷说:“我预计失业问题将继续成为今年的收支平衡问题,一些餐馆将不得不支付更多的钱来确保他们维持适当数量的员工。”

High-contact service sectors will also face competition for workers from other booming industries.

接触程度高的服务行业也将面临来自其他蓬勃发展行业的劳动力竞争。

Terry Crow is looking for stylists to staff his 74 Great Clips salons in St. Louis, Missouri, and Orlando and Tampa, Florida. The return of customers is creating a need for workers, he said, as are the industry’s persistent high turnover and the defection of stylists to other industries seen as less of a health risk.

特里·克罗正在为他位于密苏里州圣路易斯、佛罗里达州奥兰多和坦帕市的74家Great Clips沙龙寻找发型师。他说,客户的回归产生了对员工的需求,该行业的持续高流动率以及造型师跳槽到其他被认为对健康风险较小的行业也是影响因素。

In suburban Atlanta, some 250 new real estate agents a month are flooding the Gwinnett County market, and many are leaving hospitality jobs, according to Chad Reeves, who owns a local Keller Williams office.

在亚特兰大郊区,每个月大约有250家新的房地产中介涌入昆内特县的市场,许多人都放弃了酒店工作,据在当地拥有凯勒·威廉姆斯办事处的查德·里维斯说。

“I really think there is a pause going on where people are saying, ‘Is this the career that it was?’” Crow said. “There are masks and cleaning protocols, people have to wear masks even on breaks. And then they have people yelling at them saying, ‘Why do we have to wear a mask?’”

“我真的认为会有一个停顿,人们会说,‘这是以前的职业吗?”克罗说。“有口罩和清洁规程,人们即使在休息时间也必须戴口罩。然后有人朝他们大喊,‘我们为什么要戴口罩?’”

Still, problems finding workers should dwindle as the vaccine rollout facilitates a return to in-person schooling and reduces fears of catching Covid-19 on the job, according to Brian Rose, a senior economist at UBS Financial Services Inc.

瑞银金融服务公司高级经济学家布莱恩·罗斯表示,随着疫苗的推出有助于人们重返校园,并减少了人们在工作中感染新冠肺炎的恐惧,找工作的问题应该会减少。
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


“As the economy reopens, the problems keeping people out of the labor force should ease,” Rose wrote in a March 12 report. “Job growth should shift to sectors like leisure and hospitality where there are millions of available workers.

罗斯在3月12日的一份报告中写道:“随着经济重新开放,让人们失去劳动力的问题应该会缓解。就业增长应该转向休闲和酒店等行业,这些行业有数百万可用的工人。