Just a few weeks ago I wrote a column entitled “The Ukraine’s Many Ticking Time Bombs” in which I listed a number of developments presenting a major threat to the Ukraine and, in fact, to all the countries of the region. In this short time the situation has deteriorated rather dramatically. I will therefore begin with a short recap of what is happening.

就在几个星期前，我写了一篇题为《 乌克兰众多滴答作响的定时炸弹 》的专栏文章，其中我列举了一些对乌克兰乃至该区域所有国家构成重大威胁的事态发展。
在这短短的时间内，局势急剧恶化，因此，我将首先简要回顾一下正在发生的事情。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


First, the Ukrainian government and parliament have, for all practical purposes, declared the Minsk Agreements as dead. Truth be told, these agreements were stillborn, but as long as everybody pretended that there was still a chance for some kind of negotiated solution, they served as a “war retardant”. Now that this retardant has been removed, the situation becomes far more explosive than before.

首先，乌克兰政府和议会实际上已经宣布明斯克协业已失效，说实话，这些协议早已胎死腹中，但只要每个人都假装还有机会通过谈判达成某种解决办法，它们就起到了“阻止战争”的作用，现在这种阻燃剂已经被除去，情况变得比以前更具爆炸性。

Second, it is pretty obvious that the “Biden” administration is a who’s who of all the worst russophobes of the Obama era: Nuland, Psaki, and the rest of them are openly saying that they want to increase the confrontation with Russia. Even the newcomers, say like Ned Price, are clearly rabid russophobes. The folks in Kiev immediately understood that their bad old masters were back in the White House and they are now also adapting their language to this new (well, not really) reality.

其次，很明显，“拜登”政府是奥巴马时代最憎恨俄罗斯的人的集合：纽兰、普萨基以及其余人都公开表示，他们希望加剧与俄罗斯的对抗。
即使是像内德 · 普莱斯这样的新来者，显然也是狂热的仇俄者，基辅的人们立刻意识到，他们那些糟糕的老主子们又回到了白宫，他们现在也在调整自己的语言，以适应这个新的 ( 好吧，也不是真的) 现实。

Finally, and most ominously, there are clear signs that the Ukrainian military is moving heavy forces towards the line of contact. Here is an example of a video taken in the city of Mariupol:

最后，也是最不祥的一点，有明显的迹象表明，乌克兰军队正在向接触线派遣重兵，以下是在马里乌波尔市拍摄的一段视频：


Besides tanks, there are many reports of other heavy military equipment, including MLRS and tactical ballistic missiles, being moved east towards the line of contact. Needless to say, the Russian General Staff is tracking all these movements very carefully, as are the intelligence services of the LDNR.

除了坦克，还有许多其他重型军事装备的报告，包括多管火箭炮系统和战术弹道导弹，正在向东移动到接触线。
不用说，俄罗斯总参谋部正在非常仔细地跟踪所有这些行动，地方自卫队的情报部门也是如此。

This is all happening while Zelenskii’s popularity is in free fall. Actually, not only his. Think of it: Biden stole the election in the US and has to deal with 70 million “deplorables” while the EU leaders are all facing many extremely severe crises (immigration, crime, COVID lockdowns, Woke ideology, etc.). The truth is that they all desperately need some kind of “distraction” to keep their public opinion from focusing on the real issues facing the western societies.

这一切都发生在泽连斯基的人气直线下降的时候，事实上，不仅仅是他，想想看： 拜登偷走了美国的大选，不得不应付7000万 "可悲分子"，而欧盟领导人都面临着许多极其严重的危机( 移民、犯罪、COVID封锁、苏醒的意识形态等)，事实是，他们都迫切需要某种“转移注意力”的方式，以阻止公众舆论关注西方社会面临的真正问题。

Phase one: the trigger

第一阶段: 触发

The Ukraine is unlikely to simply attack the Donbass. Kiev needs to stick to the “we are the victim of the aggressor-country” narrative. However, if past behavior is one of the best predictors of future behavior, we can immediately see what is likely to happen.

乌克兰不太可能简单地攻击顿巴斯。基辅需要坚持“我们是侵略国的受害者”的说法，然而，如果过去的行为是预测未来行为的最佳指标之一，我们可以立即看到可能发生的事情。

Remember how three Ukrainian Navy vessels tried to force their way under the Crimean bridge? What about the Ukrainian terrorist groups which Kiev tried to infiltrate into Crimea? And, finally, there are the many terrorist attacks executed by Ukrainian special forces inside Novorussia. The truth is that the Ukrainian special services (SBU and military) have been conducting reconnaissance diversionary operations in the Donbass, in Crimea and even in Russia.

还记得三艘乌克兰海军舰艇试图强行通过克里米亚大桥吗？那么基辅试图渗透进克里米亚的乌克兰恐怖组织呢？
最后，还有许多由乌克兰特种部队在 NovoRussia 境内实施的恐怖袭击，事实是，乌克兰特种部队(安全局和军方)一直在顿巴斯、克里米亚甚至俄罗斯进行转移视线的进行侦察行动。

Right now, both sides (Kiev and the LDNR) have officially declared that they have given the authorization to their forces to respond to any provocations or incoming fire. Just imagine how easy it is for either side to organize some kind of provocation, then claim to be under attack and to declare that “we had to defend ourselves against the aggressor”.
Therefore, the most likely scenario is some kind of Ukrainian provocation followed by a “defensive counter-attack” by the Ukrainian military.

目前，双方(基辅和LDNR) 正式宣布，他们已授权其部队对任何挑衅行为或炮火作出反应。
试想一下，任何一方都很容易组织某种挑衅，然后声称受到攻击，并宣布”我们必须保卫自己，抵御侵略者”。
因此，最有可能发生的情况是，乌克兰军队先是进行某种形式的挑衅，然后发动“防御性反击”。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Phase two: the attack

第二阶段: 攻击

Over the past years, the Ukrainian military has received a great deal of assistance from the West, both in terms of equipment/money and in terms of training. Furthermore, in numerical terms, the Ukrainian military is much bigger than the combined forces of the LDNR. However, it would be a mistake to assume that the LDNR forces were just sitting on their laurels and not working really hard to achieve a qualitative jump in their capabilities.

在过去几年中，无论是在装备/资金方面还是在训练方面，乌克兰军队从西方获得了大量的援助。
此外，从数量上来说，乌克兰军队远远大于LDNR武装力量的总和，然而，然而，如果认为LDNR的部队只是坐在自己的荣誉上，没有真正努力实现其能力的质的飞跃，那就大错特错了。

The Ukrainian government is working on yet another mobilization (there were many such waves of mobilization in the past, none of them really successful), and considering the chaos in the country, it is unlikely to go better than the previous ones. If we want to do some “bean counting”, we can say that Kiev could theoretically mobilize about 300,000 soldiers while the standing LDNR forces number approximately 30,000 soliders (these are standing forces before mobilization). However, we must take into account that the Ukrainian forces are mostly conscxts whereas the LDNR forces are 100% professional volunteers fighting for their own land and in defense of their own families and friends. This makes a huge difference!

乌克兰政府正在进行另一次动员(过去曾有过许多这样的动员浪潮，但没有一次真正成功) ，考虑到乌克兰的混乱局面，这次动员不太可能比以前的更好。
如果我们要做一些“计算”，我们可以说基辅理论上可以动员大约300000士兵，而 LDNR 部队常备大约有30,000士兵(这些是动员前的常备部队)，然而，我们必须考虑到，乌克兰部队大多是应征入伍者，而LDNR 部队则是100% 的专业志愿者，为自己的土地和自己的家人和朋友而战，这会产生巨大的不同！

Besides, like all “bean counting”, this purely numerical comparison completely misses the point. That point is that the LDNR forces are much better trained, equipped, commanded and motivated. Furthermore, the LDNR forces have had years to prepare for an Ukronazi attack, In fact, both sides of the line of contact are now heavily fortified. Yet, and in spite of all this, the LDNR suffers from a huge weakness: no strategic (or even operational) depth. Worse, the city of Donetsk is quite literally on the front line.

此外，就像所有的“计算”一样，这种纯粹的数字完全没有抓住要点。LDNR部队的训练、装备、指挥和作战积极性都要好得多此外，LDNR 部队已经为应对乌克兰纳粹军的攻击做了多年的准备，事实上，接触线两侧现在都有重兵把守。
然而，尽管如此，LDNR 仍然存在一个巨大的弱点: 缺乏战略 (甚至没有作战) 纵深，更糟糕的是，顿涅茨克市处于前线。

Could the Ukrainian forces “punch through” the LDNR defenses? I would say that this is not impossible, and “not impossible” is serious enough to warrant a lot of preparations by the Russian armed forces to quickly intervene and stop any such breakthrough by the Ukrainian forces. Does the Russian military have the means to stop such an attack?

乌克兰军队能“突破”LDNR 的防御吗？我要说的是，这并非不可能，而且其严重程度足以让俄罗斯武装部队做出大量准备，迅速进行干预，阻止乌克兰军队的任何此类突破，俄罗斯军方有办法阻止这种攻击吗？

Yes, absolutely. First, all of the LDNR is literally right across the Russian border, which means that pretty much any Russian weapons system can “reach” not only into the LDNR, but even throughout the Ukrainian tactical, operational and even strategic depth. Russia can also deploy a classical Anti Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) “cupola” over the LDNR using a mix of air defense and electronic warfare systems. Russian rockets and artillery systems can be used not only as counter-battery fire, but also to destroy attacking Ukrainian subunits. Finally, the Russian forces in Crimea and the Black Sea Fleet can also be engaged if needed. As for Russian coastal defense systems (Bal and Bastion), they can “lock” the entire Black Sea.

是的，当然。
首先，所有的LDNR区域几乎都穿过俄罗斯边境，这意味着几乎所有的俄罗斯武器都可以“到达”LDNR，甚至可以到达乌克兰的战术、作战甚至战略纵深。俄罗斯也可以使用防空和电子战系统在 LDNR 部署一个经典的反介入/区域拒绝(A2/AD)“炮塔”。
俄罗斯的火箭和火炮系统不仅可以用作反炮兵火力，还可以用来摧毁攻击乌克兰部队。
最后，在克里米亚的俄罗斯军队和黑海舰队也可以在需要的时候介入，至于俄罗斯的海岸防御系统，他们可以“锁定”整个黑海。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


The biggest problem for Russia is that she cannot do any of that without triggering a huge political crisis in Europe; just visualize what the likes of Antony blxen, Ned Price or Jane Psaki would have to say about such a Russian intervention! Remember, these are the folks who immediately accused Russia of attacking Georgia, not the other way around. We are now all living in the “post-truth” era of “highly likely”, not of facts.

对于俄罗斯来说，最大的问题是，她无法做到这些而不引发欧洲的巨大政治危机。只要想象一下安东尼 · 布林肯、内德 · 普莱斯或简 · 普萨基等人会怎么说俄罗斯的这种干预！请注意，正是这些人即刻指责俄罗斯袭击了格鲁吉亚，而不是相反，我们现在都生活在“高度可能”的“后真相”时代，而不是事实时代。

I have said that for years now the real point of a Ukrainian attack on the Donbass would not be to reconquer the region, but to force Russia to openly and, therefore, undeniably intervene. This has been a Neocon wet dream since 2014 and it is still their ultimate obxtive in the Ukraine. So what would a Russian counter-attack look like?

多年来，我一直在说，乌克兰袭击顿巴斯的真正目的不是重新征服该地区，而是迫使俄罗斯公开进行无可否认的干预。
自2014年以来，这一直是新保守主义的美梦，也是他们在乌克兰的最终目标，那么，俄罗斯的反击会是什么样子呢？

Phase three: the Russian intervention

第三阶段: 俄罗斯的干预

First, let me ask you this: did you know that about 400,000 residents of the LDNR already have Russian passports? Is that a lot? Well, the total population of the LDNR is about 3.7 million people, so more than 10% of the population. This is crucial for two reasons: first, you can think of these Russian citizens as a kind of tripwire: if enough of them get killed, Putin have no other choice than to intervene to protect them and, in fact, Putin has made it clear many times that Russia will never allow the Ukraine to seize Novorussia by force or to massacre its population. Second, there are many precedents of countries (mostly western ones) using military force to protect their citizens. Examples include the US in both Grenada and Panama, the Turks in Cyprus and Syria or the French in many African countries.

首先，我问你个问题：
你知道大约400,000的 LDNR 居民已经有俄罗斯护照吗？多不多？LDNR的总人口约为370万人，超过总人口的10%以上。
这一点至关重要，原因有二:
首先，你可以把这些俄罗斯公民看作一个绊线： 如果他们中很多人被杀害，普京别无选择，只能干预保护他们，事实上，普京已多次明确表示，俄罗斯绝不会允许乌克兰通过武力夺取 Novorussia区域或屠杀其人口。
其次，有许多国家 (主要是西方国家) 使用军事力量保护本国公民的先例，例如美国在格林纳达和巴拿马，土耳其在塞浦路斯和叙利亚，或法国在许多非洲国家。

Next, in purely military terms, Russia has plenty of standoff weapons which could be used to disrupt and stop any Ukranian attack even without sending in a ground force. Not only that, but the Russian response does not have to be limited to the front lines – Russia could easily strike the Ukraine even in its strategic depth and there is really nothing the Ukrainians could do to prevent that. Still, I do not believe that the Russian counter-attack would be limited to standoff weapons, mainly because of the need to relieve the LDNR forces on the front line which will be exhausted by difficult defensive operations. In other words, this time around Russia won’t even bother to deny her involvement; at this point in time, this would be futile and counter productive.

接下来，纯粹从军事角度来看，俄罗斯拥有大量的对峙武器，即使不派遣地面部队，也可以用来瓦解和阻止乌克兰的任何攻击。
不仅如此，俄罗斯的反应也不必局限于前线——俄罗斯甚至可以轻易地攻击乌克兰的战略纵深，而乌克兰实际上无法阻止这一点。
不过，我不认为俄罗斯的反击仅限于提供对峙武器，主要是因为需要缓解前线的LDNR部队因艰难的防御行动而疲于奔命，换句话说，这一次俄罗斯甚至不会否认她的参与，在这种时候，这样做是徒劳的，而且会产生反作用。

The west loves concepts such as the “responsibility to protect” (R2P)? Good! Then Russia can use it too.
Of course, I am not naive to the point of believing that anybody in the West will be suaded by notions such as fairness or precedent. But the Kremlin will use this argument to further educate the Russian people in the true intentions of the West. This is especially helpful for Putin during an election year (which 2121 is for Russia), and this will only further weaken both the pro-western opposition (for obvious reasons) and even the anti-western “patriotic” opposition which will have no choice but to fully support a military intervention to save the Donbass.

西方喜欢“保护责任”(R2P) 这样的概念? 很好! 那么俄罗斯也可以使用它。
当然，我并不天真到相信西方的任何人都会被诸如公平或先例之类的观念所左右，但是克里姆林宫将利用这一论点进一步教育俄罗斯人民了解西方的真实意图。
这对普京在大选年 ( 2121年是俄罗斯的大选年) 的表现尤其有利，而且这只会进一步削弱亲西方的反对派(原因显而易见) ，甚至会削弱反西方的“爱国”反对派，后者将别无选择，只能全力支持为拯救顿巴斯而进行军事干预。

Phase four: the Empire’s response

第四阶段: 帝国的反应

I don’t believe for one second that anybody in the West will volunteer for suicide and advocate for a military intervention in the Ukraine or against Russia. NATO is a “pretend” military alliance. In reality, it is a US instrument to control Europe. Yes, historically the pretext for NATO was the supposed threat from Soviet unx and, now, from Russia, but the true reason for NATO has always been to control the European continent. Nobody in the West believes that it is worth risking a full scale war against Russia just over a (relatively minor) Russian military intervention in the eastern Ukraine. However, once it becomes undeniable that Russia has intervened (the Kremlin won’t even bother denying this!), the trans-national imperial Nomenklatura which runs the Empire will see this as a truly historical opportunity to create a major crisis which will weaken Russian positions in Europe and immensely strengthen the US control over the continent.

我丝毫不相信西方国家会有人甘愿采取自杀性行动，并主张对乌克兰或俄罗斯进行军事干预。
北约是一个“假装的”军事联盟，实际上，它是美国控制欧洲的工具，历史上北约的借口是所谓的来自苏联和现在来自俄罗斯的威胁，但北约的真正原因一直是控制欧洲大陆。
在西方，没有人认为仅仅因为俄罗斯对乌克兰东部的军事干预(相对较小)就冒险与俄罗斯发动全面战争是值得的。
然而，一旦不可否认俄罗斯已经介入(克里姆林宫甚至懒得否认这一点!) ，跨国帝国权贵们将视此为一个真正的历史机遇，制造一场重大危机，削弱俄罗斯在欧洲的地位，并极大地加强美国对欧洲大陆的控制。

We have all seen how the western politicians and presstitutes have invented a (totally fake) Russian intervention in the Donbass and how they said they would “punish” Russia for “not implementing the Minsk Agreements”. We can only imagine how strident and hysterical these Russia-hating screams will become once Russia actually does intervene, quite openly. Again, if past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior, then we can rest assured that western politicians will do what they always do: exacerbate and prolong the conflict as long as possible, but without directly attacking Russia. That is the purpose of the Ukrainian military, to provide the cannon fodder for the AnglioZionists.

我们都已经看到，西方政客和压迫者捏造了一个(完全虚假的)俄罗斯对顿巴斯的干预，并表示他们将“惩罚”俄罗斯不执行明斯克协议。
我们只能想象，一旦俄罗斯真的公开干预，这些憎恨俄罗斯的尖叫声将会变得多么刺耳和歇斯底里。
同样，如果过去的行为是对未来行为的最好预测，那么我们可以放心，西方政客将会做他们一直在做的事情：
尽可能地加剧和延长冲突，但不会直接攻击俄罗斯，这就是乌克兰军队的目的，为盎格鲁-犹太复国主义者充当炮灰。

Phase four prime: possible Ukronazi responses

第四阶段： 纳粹乌克兰可能的回应

Take it to the bank: “Ze” and the rest of the clowns in the Rada are no military leaders. Even Ukrainian military commanders are truly of the 3rd class type (all the good ones are either gone or fired). The first concern of the folks in Kiev will be to safely evacuate the western “advisors” from the area of operations and then to hide themselves and their money. For all the running around in battle fatigue and for all the hot air about super weapons, the Ukrainian military won’t continue to exist as an organized fighting force for longer than 48 hours. As I mentioned above, Russia can easily impose a no-fly zone, not only over the LDNR, but even over the entire eastern Ukraine. Russia can also basically switch off the power in the entire country. There is a very good reason why Putin declared in 2018 that any Ukrainian serious attack or provocation “will have very serious consequences for the Ukrainian statehood as a whole”.

百分之一百二的肯定：阿泽（连斯基）和其余的演话剧的小丑在没有人是军事领袖，乌克兰的军事指挥官不过三等兵水平(所有优秀的指挥官要么被解雇，要么被开除)。
基辅的人首先关心的是将西方“顾问”从行动区安全撤离，然后藏起他们自己和他们的钱，对于所有在战斗疲劳中奔波的人来说，尽管有关“超级武器”的言论很多，但乌克兰军队作为一支有组织的战斗力量不会存在超过48小时。
正如我上面提到的，俄罗斯可以很容易地设置一个禁飞区，不仅在 LDNR 上空，甚至遍及整个东乌克兰，俄罗斯基本上也可以切断其全国的电力供应，普京在2018年宣布，任何乌克兰的严重攻击或挑衅“都将对乌克兰的整体国家地位产生非常严重的后果”，这是有充分理由的。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Yet it would be extremely dangerous to simply dismiss the Ukronazi potential for creating some real headaches for Moscow. How?
For example, I would not put it past the Ukrainians to threaten an attack against the Operational Group of Russian Forces (OGRF) in Transnistria. This is a small force, far away from Russia, surrounded by hostile neighbors. Keep in mind that Tiraspol is about 600km west from Donetsk! Not only that, but if Moldova is not a member of NATO, Romania is. As for the current President of Moldova, Maia Sandu, she is both Romanian and deeply anti-Russian. But while all this is true, I think that it is also important to keep another factoid in mind: Chisinau, the capital of Moldova, is only about 300km away from the Crimean Peninsula. This places all of Moldova well within reach of Russian standoff weapons and rapid reaction mobile forces. For the Moldovans, any notion of attacking the OGRF in Transnistria would be really crazy, but for a desperate Ukronazi regime in Kiev this might be preferable to a defeat against Russia.

然而，如果简单地否定纳粹乌克兰给莫斯科带来一些真正头痛的潜力，那是极其危险的，怎么说呢？
例如，我不认为乌克兰人会威胁攻击德涅斯特河左岸的俄罗斯部队行动小组，这是一支小规模部队，远离俄罗斯，被敌对邻国包围，请记住，蒂拉斯波尔距顿涅茨克以西大约600公里！不仅如此，摩尔多瓦不是北约成员国，罗马尼亚则是，至于现在的摩尔多瓦总统，马娅·桑杜，她既是罗马尼亚人，又深深地反对俄罗斯。
尽管这些都是事实，但我认为还有一点也很重要: 摩尔多瓦首都基希讷乌距离克里米亚仅300公里，这使得摩尔多瓦全国处于俄罗斯武器和快速反应机动部队的可及范围之内，对于摩尔多瓦人来说，任何攻击德涅斯特河沿岸俄罗斯部队行动小组的想法都是非常疯狂的，但是对于一个绝望的基辅乌克兰纳粹政权来说，这可能比击败俄罗斯更可取。

Of course, the Ukronazi regime in Kiev really has no agency, ever since the “revolution of dignity”. All the decisions about the Ukraine are made by Uncle Shmuel and his minions in Kiev. So the question we should be asking would be: would anybody put it past the Neocon crazies in the White House to egg on the Ukronazi regime in Kiev to further widen the conflict and force Russia to also intervene in Transnistria?

当然，自“尊严革命”以来，基辅的乌克兰纳粹政权确实没有代理机构，所有关于乌克兰的决定都是由基辅的什穆埃尔大叔和他的手下做出的，因此，我们应该问的问题是：
有没有人会不理会白宫的新保守主义狂热分子，怂恿基辅的乌克兰纳粹政权进一步扩大冲突，迫使俄罗斯也干预德涅斯特河沿岸地区?