Nirmala Sitharaman has thrown everything but the kitchen sink at the Covid-19 pandemic. The fiscal deficit in 2020-21 is likely to rise to 9.5% of GDP — with 1.5% coming from one-time transparency — making it the highest in India’s history. The 2021-22 deficit is projected to decline to 6.5%, still very high, and similar in size to India’s fiscal deficits after the 1991-92 and 2008-09 crises. Those for a larger fiscal stimulus should be happy. Will it work?

在新冠大流行期间，尽管尼马拉·西特哈拉曼砸锅卖铁努力缩减财政赤字。但2020-21年的财政赤字仍然可能飙升到GDP的9.5%，印度有史以来最高的一次，按照原来的计划财政赤字是1.5%。预计2021-22年的赤字将降至6.5%，但仍然很高，与1991-92年和2008-09年危机后的财政赤字规模相当。那些支持更大规模财政刺激的人应该高兴了。但能否奏效还是个问题。

The recovery, so far, has been more K- than V-shaped. With GDP growth contracting by about 15% in H1 2020-21, it must be on a substantial rebound if it is to average –8% for the entire year. Leading indicators such as electricity use, GST collections, vehicle sales, rail freight, Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and e-way bills show a recovery is underway. But several key sectors such as oil and gas, cement, fertilisers, and tourism and travel are still down. And there is unevenness between corporates, MSMEs and the unorganised sector.

迄今为止，复苏应该是是“K”型而不是“V”型。鉴于2020-21上半年年的国内生产总值(GDP)萎缩了约15%。印度经济必须要大幅反弹，才能使全年的GDP增长率维持在-8%。印度的用电量、商品及服务税征收、汽车销售、铁路货运、采购经理人指数(PMI)和电子账单等主要指标显示，复苏正在进行。但石油和天然气、水泥、化肥、旅游和旅游等几个关键行业仍在下滑。公司、中小微企业和无组织部门之间也存在不平衡。

The unemployment rate has improved, but employment remains below pre-pandemic levels. The huge increase in demand for MGNREGA work in 2020-21 shows the impact on livelihoods has been huge, with 80-100 million people projected to fall back into poverty. Will the budget nurture and widen the recovery? With projected real GDP growth of over 10% in 2021-22, India’s GDP would go back to pre-pandemic levels. To achieve this, the budget puts large sums into capital expenditure — an increase from 12.5% pre-Covid to 16% for 2021-22. Even if the entire increase is not genuine capital expenditure — for instance, some of the expenditure on railways and in Food Corporation of India (FCI) — there is an upward trajectory. If this money is directed towards shovel-ready projects in the National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP), it could have large multiplier effects.

印度的失业率虽然有所改善，但就业率仍低于新冠大流行前的水平。2020年至2021年间，小额信贷和小额赠款需求大幅度增加，这表明印度人民的生计受到了巨大影响，预计将有8 000万至1亿人重返贫困。新的预算是否会促进和扩大经济复苏?预计2021-22年印度国内生产总值（GDP）增长率将超过10%，印度的GDP总值将恢复到新冠大流行前的水平。为了实现这一目标，新的财政预算将大量资金投入资本支出—，从新冠大流行前的12.5%增加到2021-22年的16%。整个增长中非资本支出部分——例如，铁路和印度食品公司(FCI)的部分支出——也上升的趋势。如果这笔钱被用于国家基础设施管道(NIP)的现成项目，它可能会产生巨大的乘数效应。

More money for completion of unfinished projects should also be a priority. But with elections looming in Assam, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Puducherry, a large share will end up in new projects in these states and unx territory. Badly hit sectors like real estate, travel and tourism have not been given any specific help.

将更多资金用于未完成的项目也是一个优先考虑事项。但是随着阿萨姆邦、泰米尔纳德邦、西孟加拉邦和普杜切里邦的选举迫在眉睫，很大一部分资金将最终用于这些邦和邦领地的新项目中。房地产、旅游和旅游等遭受重创的行业没有得到任何实质性帮助。

In a higher orbit

更高的眼界

To help finance higher capital expenditure, divestment — called ‘privatisation’ for the first time — remains on the agenda. GoI should take a leaf out of former PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s book and set up a separate ministry, with a five-year plan for it, instead of yearly targets.

为了筹集更多的资本支出，资产剥离——首次被称为“私有化”——仍在议事日程上。印度政府应该学习前总理阿塔尔·比哈里·瓦杰帕伊的著作，成立一个独立的部委，并为其制定“五年计划”，而不是“年度目标”。

Monetisation of assets is another large source of financing proposed, especially if the agency whose assets are involved shares in its proceeds. But transparency will be important, so that it all does not end up in the hands of cronies.

提议的另一大融资来源是资产货币化，尤其是资产涉及的机构将分享其收益。但透明度就变得重要，这样才不会让一切都落入亲信之手。

With capacity utilisation improving, but still at levels close to 50-60%, India is unlikely to see immediate recovery in private investment. But along with public infrastructure that can crowd in private investment, the production-lixed incentive (PLI) scheme, if implemented smartly and lixed to state-level initiatives, could draw in new investment. A development finance institution (DFI) to provide long-term finance is provisioned for, but will need professional management.

产能利用率有所提高，但仍处于50-60%的水平，印度私人投资不太可能立即复苏。但是，除了可以吸引私人投资的公共基础设施之外，与生产挂钩的激励计划(PLI)如果实施得当，并与国家层面的激励措施挂钩，可能会吸引新的投资。提供长期融资的开发金融机构(DFI)已准备就绪，但需要专业管理。

Delaying financial sector clean-up is the surest way to a weak recovery. The elephant in the room is rising non-performing assets (NPAs), projected by RBI to reach almost 14% by June 2021. The announcement, finally, of a ‘bad bank’ is recognition that the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) process takes too long for resolution of systemic NPAs. Announcing the privatisation of two State banks is the first signal of reversing bank nationalisation of 1969. But one hopes these are not just cleaned up and sold to corporates.

推迟金融部门的清理是解决复苏乏力的最可靠途径。不断上升的不良资产(NPA)如房间里的大象一般显而易见，印度央行预计到2021年6月不良资产将达到近14%。最后，政府宣布“坏银行”便是认识到《破产和破产法》(IBC)程序花费了太长时间来解决系统性不良资产。宣布两家国有银行转为私有化，也是扭转1969年银行国有化的第一个信号。但人们希望这些银行不是简单地被清理并出售给企业。

High priority has been given to healthcare, with an increase of 37% over the previous budget. Half of this will go towards vaccination, with more to come if needed. If India can vaccinate its entire 1.4 billion population in 2021-22, it will have a huge impact on lives and livelihoods. State governments should follow this lead.

医疗保健得到高度重视，较上次预算增加了37%。其中一半将用于疫苗接种，如果有需要还会有更多预算。如果印度能够在2021-22年为其全部14亿人口接种疫苗，将对印度人生活和生计产生巨大影响。邦政府应该效仿这种做法。

The budget relies on recovery to help the poor. But employment will not recover as quickly as GDP. Cash transfers, even small amounts, would have helped below-poverty-line (BPL) families. Free food rations to BPL families should also have been continued for another six months and the MGNREGA budget allocation in 2021-22 may have to be increased if the demand for jobs remains. ‘One Nation, One Ration Card’ for migrants should be expedited, and will encourage migrants to return.

财政预算促进经济复苏，从而帮助穷人。但是就业不可能像GDP恢复得那么快。现金转移，即使数额很小，也能帮助贫困线以下(BPL)的家庭。向贫困线一下的家庭提供的免费食物的政策也应该再持续六个月。为保障工作的需求，2021-2022年印度政府的为全国农村就业保障法的预算拨款必须增加。流动性季节工的“一个国家，一张配给卡”政策也应该加快实施，并鼓励流动性季节工返。

As strong as the lix

像链条一样强大

By continuing down the path of further import protection, questions on ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ will remain. With compressed domestic demand and a robust global recovery underway, an export push would have been the way to ensure faster recovery. Instead of textile parks, export processing zones (EPZs) and port-led development to attract FDI in labour-intensive exports may give India a better way to enter global value chains (GVCs).

通过进一步推进的进口保护措施，关于“印度自力更生”的问题依然存在。随着国内需求萎缩和全球经济强劲复苏，出口推动将是确保印度经济更快复苏的必要途径。出口加工区（EPZs）和港口带动发展，吸引外国直接投资（FDI）进入劳动密集型产业出口，而不只是纺织园区，将会给印度提供一个更好的途径进入全球价值链（GVCs）。

The ‘Spend and Grow Budget’ has its risks. With a public debt-to-GDP ratio close to 90%, it takes on huge increases in public debt, but does not grow as rapidly as projected. The huge lifeline the FM has thrown may then pull India overboard and into dangerous waters. But the intent to grow our way out of this crisis is the right one. It had to be taken.

“支出与增长预算”有其风险。公共债务与国内生产总值的比率已接近90%，公共债务大幅增加，但增长速度远低于预期。财政部长抛出的巨大救生索可能会将印度拖离船外，进入危险水域。但是，我们走出这场危机的意图是正确的，也必须有所行动。