China Will Soon Have More Submarines Than America. That's Alarming.

中国即将拥有比美国更多的潜艇

But one U.S. advantage can shift back the balance of power.

但是美国的一个优势可以改变力量的平衡。

BY KYLE MIZOKAMI

作者:KYLE MIZOKAMI

DEC 14, 2020

2020年12月14日

China’s submarine fleet is on track to surpass America’s by

中国的潜艇舰队正在朝着2030年超过美国前进.

The problem is exacerbated by the U.S. Navy’s global mission set, requiring it to send

这个问题因为美国海军的全球任务而变得更加严峻

submarines everywhere.

潜艇无处不在

While this stat is alarming, including the sub fleets of allies like Japan and South Korea shifts the balance of power back away to an America-led coalition.

尽管这个数字令人担忧,包括日本和韩国等盟国的次级舰队,但这种力量平衡已经转回到美国领导的联盟



In 1993, China counted 47 submarines, including one marginally useful Xia-class ballistic missile submarine, just five noisy Han-class nuclear powered attack submarines, 34 1950s-era Romeo-class diesel electric submarines, and six older Ming-class submarines. Simply put, China’s submarine force wasn’t terribly useful and was, at best, a coastal defense force.

1993年,中国统计了47艘潜艇,其中包括一艘作用不大的夏级弹道导弹潜艇,5艘噪音大的汉级核动力攻击潜艇,34艘20世纪50年代的罗密欧级柴油动力潜艇,以及6艘较老的明级潜艇。简单地说,中国的潜艇部队并不十分有用,充其量只是一支沿海防御力量。

Now, after 27 years of double-digit defense spending increases, China’s sub fleet is a different beast altogether.

如今,经过27年两位数的国防开支增长,中国的潜艇舰队已经完全变成了另一个野兽。



The U.S. submarine fleet will be pretty much static during the 2020-30 period, dropping slightly from 68 subs of all types to 66.

美国潜艇舰队在2020-2030年期间几乎是无变化的,各种类型的潜艇从68艘略微下降到66艘。


China’s submarine fleet has made dramatic advances, but it also faces problems. On one hand, most of the fleet is fairly modern and new. On the other, most of it still consists of diesel electric submarines with limited range, and Chinese subs aren't as quiet as American subs.

中国的潜艇舰队已经取得了巨大的进步,但它也面临着问题。一方面,大多数的舰队是相当现代和新的。另一方面,中国的潜艇大部分仍然是有限航程的柴油动力潜艇,而且中国的潜艇也不像美国的潜艇那样安静。

Only six out of China’s 56 attack submarines could cross the Pacific to threaten naval bases in Hawaii or the continental U.S. All of America’s submarines, however, could cross the Pacific to operate off the coast of the Asian mainland. Another problem? China has few real allies with submarine fleets of their own, with the exception of Pakistan and its fleet of five aging submarines.

中国56艘攻击型潜艇中只有6艘能够穿越太平洋,威胁夏威夷或美国大陆的海军基地。然而,美国所有的潜艇都能够穿越太平洋,在亚洲大陆海岸外执行任务。另一个问题?中国几乎没有真正拥有潜艇舰队的盟友,除了巴基斯坦及其拥有五艘老化潜艇的舰队。

The U.S. Navy is in for a slight dip in overall numbers, but things get better after the 2030 timefrx. The Navy’s new 30-year shipbuilding plan sees the service increasing the number of submarines built from two a year to generally three a year by 2025. The number of nuclear-powered attack submarines reaches a bottom of 50 in 2025, but gradually rebounds, reaching 61 by 2035 and 80 by 2051. The total number of all U.S. submarines will reach 93 by 2051 ... if the Navy is able to afford them.

美国海军的整体数量略有下降,但在2030年之后情况会好转。根据美国海军新的30年造船计划,到2025年,潜艇数量将从每年两艘增加到一般每年三艘。核动力攻击潜艇的数量在2025年达到底部的50艘,但是逐渐反弹,到2035年达到61艘,到2051年达到80艘。到2051年,美国所有潜艇的总数将达到93艘... ... 如果海军能够负担得起的话。

Meanwhile, the 14 Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines are replaced by 12 new Columbia-class submarines, and the four Ohio-class cruise missile submarines fade from the force entirely. But there are hints they could be replaced by new boats based on the Columbia submarine hull.

与此同时,14艘俄亥俄级弹道导弹潜艇被12艘新的哥伦比亚级潜艇取代,4艘俄亥俄级巡航导弹潜艇完全退出了战斗序列。但有迹象表明,它们可能会被基于哥伦比亚号潜艇外壳的新船所取代。

The U.S. Navy has another, often invisible advantage over China: the submarine fleets of its allies. Japan has 22 diesel electric attack submarines, including 12 of the excellent Soryu class, while South Korea operates 18 smaller diesel electric attack submarines. Taiwan operates just two aging submarines, but is embarking on an effort to build eight new subs.

美国海军比中国还有一个通常忽略的优势: 其盟友的潜艇舰队。日本拥有22艘柴油电动攻击潜艇,其中包括12艘出色的“苍龙”级潜艇,而韩国则拥有18艘较小的柴油电动攻击潜艇。台湾只有两艘老化的潜艇,但正着手建造八艘新的潜艇。

A future conflict in the Pacific would involve at least some, if not all, of these fleets, bolstering the Navy’s numbers.

未来太平洋地区的冲突至少会涉及部分(如果不是全部的话)这些舰队,从而推动美国海军人数的增加。