罗马的崩溃，是不可避免的吗？
Was the collapse of the Roman empire inevitable?
译文简介
罗马是不是死于气数已尽? 偶然还是必然？ 且看外国知乎网的观点.
正文翻译
Was the collapse of the Roman empire inevitable?
罗马的崩溃，是不可避免的吗？
评论翻译
Rome used to be a republican city state, and had been trending closer to popular representative government. Had this trend continued, and been extended to local governments among all the peoples who entered the empire, there would have been social forces aiding the expansion of the empire.Even without these sensible strategic changes, western Rome's fall could have been deferred. The British had colonised much of northern Gaul and were loyal Roman allies. The planned rendezvous between British and Roman forces around 470 was sabotaged by an act of treason by Arvandus, a short-sightedly ambitious Roman official in Gaul, who informed Euric, King of the Visigoths. Euric ambushed two legions of Britons before the army of Count Paulus of Paris could join forces with them. This undermined the Roman defensive position so much that in 486 the Franks just waltzed in and took over. It also weakened Britain just when the Saxons were invading.
至于罗马内部叛乱的问题，罗马曾经是一个共和的城邦，并逐渐向人民代议制政府靠拢。如果这种趋势持续下去，并扩展到所有并入帝国版图的地方政府，那么，就会有社会力量助力帝国的扩张。
（有了上面的因素），即使没有（别的）明智的战略，西罗马也能挣得更久些. 英国人殖民了高卢北部的大部分地区，是罗马忠诚的盟友。公元470年前后，英国和罗马军队的会面计划被阿万杜斯破坏了。阿万杜斯是一位目光短视而又野心勃勃的高卢罗马官员，他把计划泄露给了西哥特人的国王尤里克，于是，英国军队在与巴黎的保罗斯伯爵部回师之前，就被尤里克伏击了. 这极大地削弱了罗马的防守地位，以至于在486年，罗马就法兰克人轻而易举地占领了，而英国也被削弱了.
至于罗马内部叛乱的问题，罗马曾经是一个共和的城邦，并逐渐向人民代议制政府靠拢。如果这种趋势持续下去，并扩展到所有并入帝国版图的地方政府，那么，就会有社会力量助力帝国的扩张。
（有了上面的因素），即使没有（别的）明智的战略，西罗马也能挣得更久些. 英国人殖民了高卢北部的大部分地区，是罗马忠诚的盟友。公元470年前后，英国和罗马军队的会面计划被阿万杜斯破坏了。阿万杜斯是一位目光短视而又野心勃勃的高卢罗马官员，他把计划泄露给了西哥特人的国王尤里克，于是，英国军队在与巴黎的保罗斯伯爵部回师之前，就被尤里克伏击了. 这极大地削弱了罗马的防守地位，以至于在486年，罗马就法兰克人轻而易举地占领了，而英国也被削弱了.
Martin Van Basten
EU is also democratic yet the UK exited.
Democracy doesn’t necessarily prevent centrifugal forces.
评论：
欧盟也是民主的了，但英国也退出的. 民主不一定能防止离心力。
EU is also democratic yet the UK exited.
Democracy doesn’t necessarily prevent centrifugal forces.
评论：
欧盟也是民主的了，但英国也退出的. 民主不一定能防止离心力。
Geoffrey Richard Driscoll-Tobin
Good point.Would a different form of EU have been less fractious?
楼上说得好，若是另一种形式的欧盟，会不会吵架少些？
Good point.Would a different form of EU have been less fractious?
楼上说得好，若是另一种形式的欧盟，会不会吵架少些？
Secondly, the plague was much worse for the urban Roman population than the rural populations in Germania and around Dacia. Thus, the plague far more heavily hit Rome than the ‘barbarians’, and the power balance swung away from Rome for half a century. The difference between dense Roman populations and more scattered ‘barbarian’ ones reaches into the army as well. A Roman army camps in a compact fortified camp, alternatively known as ideal conditions for infection. The majority of ‘barbarians’ intrusions was not by massive armies, but small raiding parties. The large attacks almost always got defeated in the end, but it’s the small raids which promote more attacks, weakening the credibility of emperors, breaking the Pax Romana, and damaging the urban centres (much better targets than farms in the most part).Thirdly, this was not a small epidemic: it reached from Korea to Iberia. Across the world, the large, established, empires were collapsing. China fragmented into the Three Kingdoms, the Indian Kingdoms tend to collapse slightly later in the early third century. Along with the large rich powers of the day what collapsed was trade. In the Roman Empire taxes were low because the administration was very small. It was growing around this time, but after the 3rd century crisis the administration became massive. Why? Simple: Rome needed the tax. Before the crisis, the entire Roman annual revenue amounted to 1.1 billion sesterces, of which trade in the India Ocean provided no less than 250 million (The Roman Empire and the Indian Ocean, Raoul McLaughlin). That’s a huge portion of the economy to very rapidly disappear, forcing an expensive administration to rise up in response.
其次，鼠疫对罗马城市人的影响比日耳曼尼亚和达契亚周围的农村人口要严重得多。因此，瘟疫比“蛮族”对罗马的打击更严重，罗马的权力也因此动荡了半个多世纪. 瘟疫密集的罗马人，和对分散的野蛮人的影响，也大不相同. 罗马军队驻扎在一个狭小的营地里，瘟疫就更容易感染了. 大多数"蛮族"入侵，规模都不大，而是小规模的突袭。大规模的袭击最终几乎都以失败告终，但小规模的袭击却非常凑效，打击了罗马皇帝的威信，打破了罗马帝国的和平环境，罗马城市鸡犬不宁（平时，罗马的城市比农村要好得多）.
第三，这场瘟疫规模非常大. 它从韩国传到伊比利亚。在世界范围内，那些庞大而稳固的帝国正在崩溃。中国分裂为三个王国，印度王国崩溃稍晚，在三世纪早期崩溃. 这样，当时世界上的主要发达国家都崩溃了，贸易也随之崩溃.
罗马帝国初期，税收很低，因为管理部门很小，而这个时期开始，税收就增长了，为什么呢，因为管理部门变得庞大了. 罗马得征收更多的税. 在（瘟疫）危机前，整个罗马年收入达11亿塞斯特塞，其中印度洋贸易提供的不少于2.5亿塞斯特塞(罗马帝国和印度洋，拉乌尔·麦克劳克林)。（瘟疫后）这个贸易税收很快就消失了.
其次，鼠疫对罗马城市人的影响比日耳曼尼亚和达契亚周围的农村人口要严重得多。因此，瘟疫比“蛮族”对罗马的打击更严重，罗马的权力也因此动荡了半个多世纪. 瘟疫密集的罗马人，和对分散的野蛮人的影响，也大不相同. 罗马军队驻扎在一个狭小的营地里，瘟疫就更容易感染了. 大多数"蛮族"入侵，规模都不大，而是小规模的突袭。大规模的袭击最终几乎都以失败告终，但小规模的袭击却非常凑效，打击了罗马皇帝的威信，打破了罗马帝国的和平环境，罗马城市鸡犬不宁（平时，罗马的城市比农村要好得多）.
第三，这场瘟疫规模非常大. 它从韩国传到伊比利亚。在世界范围内，那些庞大而稳固的帝国正在崩溃。中国分裂为三个王国，印度王国崩溃稍晚，在三世纪早期崩溃. 这样，当时世界上的主要发达国家都崩溃了，贸易也随之崩溃.
罗马帝国初期，税收很低，因为管理部门很小，而这个时期开始，税收就增长了，为什么呢，因为管理部门变得庞大了. 罗马得征收更多的税. 在（瘟疫）危机前，整个罗马年收入达11亿塞斯特塞，其中印度洋贸易提供的不少于2.5亿塞斯特塞(罗马帝国和印度洋，拉乌尔·麦克劳克林)。（瘟疫后）这个贸易税收很快就消失了.
Finally, and much conclusively, the speculative lending market collapsed when the ‘real’ monetary system it was based on collapsed. The advances in banking in Northern Italy are often cited as one of the major pushes towards the Renaissance, the beginnings of a movement towards the modern world. Could we have seen such a transition in Rome? Innovation continued thereafter, even under the crushing taxes of the new system. I think we might have.After the third century crisis, which can be traced to the Antonine Plague by a number of means, Rome wasn’t the same. Was plague inevitable? Yes, many many of the occurred and they were often widely destructive, but not to this scale (either in geography or population loss). Was this plague inevitable? No. It was, probably, brought across from Indonesia after a chance mutation. Could Rome have endured if it came a century later? Yes, I think it could, especially if the economic trends in the late Principate were to continue.
最后，也是罗马灭亡的最重要的一点是：投机贷款市场随着其所建立的“真实”货币体系崩溃而崩溃。文艺复兴是一场向现代世界发展的运动的开端，意大利北部银行业的发展通常被认为是文艺复兴的主要推动力之一. 但以当时的罗马时代，（银行业）能推动出文艺复兴吗？ 如果新的税制崩溃，创新也能源源不断，那有能（当时的罗马能出现文艺复兴）.
三世纪时的那场危机，可以从很多方面追溯到安东尼瘟疫，罗马就不一样了。瘟疫是不可避免的吗?是的，很多很多的灾难都发生了，而且它们通常具有广泛的破坏性，但没有达到这场瘟疫的所造成的的影响(无论是在地理上还是在灭绝人口数量上)。这场瘟疫是不可避免的吗? 不。它可能只是一次偶然的突变后从印度尼西亚带来的。如果这场瘟疫迟来一个世纪的话，罗马帝国能顶得过吗？ 我觉得，能顶得过，特别是后来罗马执行的经济政策能持续下去的话.
最后，也是罗马灭亡的最重要的一点是：投机贷款市场随着其所建立的“真实”货币体系崩溃而崩溃。文艺复兴是一场向现代世界发展的运动的开端，意大利北部银行业的发展通常被认为是文艺复兴的主要推动力之一. 但以当时的罗马时代，（银行业）能推动出文艺复兴吗？ 如果新的税制崩溃，创新也能源源不断，那有能（当时的罗马能出现文艺复兴）.
三世纪时的那场危机，可以从很多方面追溯到安东尼瘟疫，罗马就不一样了。瘟疫是不可避免的吗?是的，很多很多的灾难都发生了，而且它们通常具有广泛的破坏性，但没有达到这场瘟疫的所造成的的影响(无论是在地理上还是在灭绝人口数量上)。这场瘟疫是不可避免的吗? 不。它可能只是一次偶然的突变后从印度尼西亚带来的。如果这场瘟疫迟来一个世纪的话，罗马帝国能顶得过吗？ 我觉得，能顶得过，特别是后来罗马执行的经济政策能持续下去的话.
Robert Habib, Attorney (1980-present)
The collapse of the Roman Empire was inevitable. The amazing thing was that it took so long to happen. The empire lasted from 35 B.C. to the middle of the 5th century A.D. It was an empire which stretched from England to Iraq. The communications at the time was , by our standards as primitive as could be. I would guess that if a problem occurred in England, the fastest news might reach Rome would be in 7–10days. To go from England to Iraq a guess would be a month’s time at the quickest. If a revolt broke out months would go by before Rome could send reinforcements to the locus of the revolt. YET not a single province of the Empire was lost to a revolt for hundreds of years. WHY. Because in the end a substantial portion of the local population always preferred Roman rule. After being part of the Empire for hundreds of years until the 5th century an alliance of the local upperclasses, the Roman military, and the Roman bureacracy, always kept up the Roman idea of one empire, even if by the 3rd and 4th centuries A.D. it was apparent that the empire was in decline. However by the 5th century a.d. the so-called barbarians had absorbed enough of Roman civilization and arms, that they could move in and invade certain provinces, such as Gaul, England, and Spain, and North Africa, and be either welcomed or tolerated by the local population, so as to be accepted as the rulers of that particular province. The empire had always existed through the consent of the population or of the local upper classes. When the latter saw the Empire was too weak to hold together, they abandoned their belief in it and accepted its partition and destruction. This was bound to happen. However give the Empire its due. Nothing like it has been seen since.
回答3：
罗马帝国的崩溃是不可避免的，罗马能坚持那么久（公园前35年至公元5世纪中叶）才崩溃，这才是一种意外. 罗马帝国的疆域从从英国延伸到伊拉克。当时的通信非常原始，如果英国发生了问题，消息传到罗马得有7—10天. 要传到伊拉克，最快也估计要一个月时间.
如果爆发起义，等罗马派军队到起义地点，那得几个月后了.然而，几百年来，帝国却没有一个省因起义而丢失的。为什么呢？ 这表明当时的罗马居民更喜欢罗马统治. 即使在罗马帝国走下坡路的公园3、4世纪，当地的上层阶层、罗马军队、罗马官僚，也一直维持着帝国的统一. 然而，到了公元5世纪时，所谓的野蛮人已经受过罗马文明的教化，他们已经有能力入侵一些省份，比如高卢,英格兰和西班牙和北非, 他们受到当地居民的欢迎，成为当地居民的统治者. 罗马帝国的存在一直是通过民众或当地上层阶级的同意而存在的。当后者看到帝国太过弱小而无法团结在一起时，他们放弃了对帝国的信仰，接受了它的分裂和毁灭，罗马的灭亡就这样注定了. 还是为罗马惋惜吧，从那以后，再也没有罗马了.
The collapse of the Roman Empire was inevitable. The amazing thing was that it took so long to happen. The empire lasted from 35 B.C. to the middle of the 5th century A.D. It was an empire which stretched from England to Iraq. The communications at the time was , by our standards as primitive as could be. I would guess that if a problem occurred in England, the fastest news might reach Rome would be in 7–10days. To go from England to Iraq a guess would be a month’s time at the quickest. If a revolt broke out months would go by before Rome could send reinforcements to the locus of the revolt. YET not a single province of the Empire was lost to a revolt for hundreds of years. WHY. Because in the end a substantial portion of the local population always preferred Roman rule. After being part of the Empire for hundreds of years until the 5th century an alliance of the local upperclasses, the Roman military, and the Roman bureacracy, always kept up the Roman idea of one empire, even if by the 3rd and 4th centuries A.D. it was apparent that the empire was in decline. However by the 5th century a.d. the so-called barbarians had absorbed enough of Roman civilization and arms, that they could move in and invade certain provinces, such as Gaul, England, and Spain, and North Africa, and be either welcomed or tolerated by the local population, so as to be accepted as the rulers of that particular province. The empire had always existed through the consent of the population or of the local upper classes. When the latter saw the Empire was too weak to hold together, they abandoned their belief in it and accepted its partition and destruction. This was bound to happen. However give the Empire its due. Nothing like it has been seen since.
回答3：
罗马帝国的崩溃是不可避免的，罗马能坚持那么久（公园前35年至公元5世纪中叶）才崩溃，这才是一种意外. 罗马帝国的疆域从从英国延伸到伊拉克。当时的通信非常原始，如果英国发生了问题，消息传到罗马得有7—10天. 要传到伊拉克，最快也估计要一个月时间.
如果爆发起义，等罗马派军队到起义地点，那得几个月后了.然而，几百年来，帝国却没有一个省因起义而丢失的。为什么呢？ 这表明当时的罗马居民更喜欢罗马统治. 即使在罗马帝国走下坡路的公园3、4世纪，当地的上层阶层、罗马军队、罗马官僚，也一直维持着帝国的统一. 然而，到了公元5世纪时，所谓的野蛮人已经受过罗马文明的教化，他们已经有能力入侵一些省份，比如高卢,英格兰和西班牙和北非, 他们受到当地居民的欢迎，成为当地居民的统治者. 罗马帝国的存在一直是通过民众或当地上层阶级的同意而存在的。当后者看到帝国太过弱小而无法团结在一起时，他们放弃了对帝国的信仰，接受了它的分裂和毁灭，罗马的灭亡就这样注定了. 还是为罗马惋惜吧，从那以后，再也没有罗马了.
Fabio Bozzo, studied History & Geopolitics at University of Genoa (2006)
Yes and no. Each empire has its natural historical course, including the Roman. The decline of Rome occurred for many reasons, which I will try to summarize to the maximum. Excessive dependence on the slave economy (which forced the empire to continue military expansion to capture slaves); end of military expansion (which slowed economic-scientific progress in the absence of cheap labor); mysterious lack of naval development with relative explorations (the basic technology to be developed would have been, why the Romans did not look more at the oceans remains a mystery); enlargement for fiscal reasons of citizenship to populations not yet sufficiently Romanized, especially in the east (this inserted many people in the administration who had neither the mentality nor the attachment to the State of roman); demographic crisis (the true Romans had become wealthy on average and stopped having many children, while the "poor" less Romanized and less able to lead the administration and the army increased in number); religious crisis and fifths of moral values (Christianity greatly weakened the classical values of Roman times, and before replacing them with their own there was a period of widespread social malaise. Later on, classical and Christian values merged, giving rise to Western Civilization as we mean it today, but at that point the Roman Empire was already in irreversible decline).
回答4：
既有偶然也有必然. 每个帝国都有其自然的历史进程，包括罗马帝国。罗马的衰落有很多原因，我会尽量总结一下，如下：
1. 过度依赖奴隶经济(这迫使帝国继续进行军事扩张以猎取更多的奴隶);
2. 军事上无力再扩张(廉价劳动力短缺时，军事扩张会减缓经济、科学的发展);
3. 迷之因： 罗马没有发展海军（当时已经有基本的造船技术了）.
4. 因贪婪而扩张太急，囫囵吞下那些还没受过罗马教化的人口. 特别是在东方(这使得许多人进入了罗马政府，这些人既没有罗马的心态也不忠于罗马);
5. 人口危机(真正的罗马人富起来后，不愿再生很多孩子，而“穷人”罗马化程度较低，领导行政和军队的能力较弱);
(基督教极大地削弱了罗马时代的古典价值观，在用自己的价值观取代它们之前，有一段时间，社会非常不安).
Yes and no. Each empire has its natural historical course, including the Roman. The decline of Rome occurred for many reasons, which I will try to summarize to the maximum. Excessive dependence on the slave economy (which forced the empire to continue military expansion to capture slaves); end of military expansion (which slowed economic-scientific progress in the absence of cheap labor); mysterious lack of naval development with relative explorations (the basic technology to be developed would have been, why the Romans did not look more at the oceans remains a mystery); enlargement for fiscal reasons of citizenship to populations not yet sufficiently Romanized, especially in the east (this inserted many people in the administration who had neither the mentality nor the attachment to the State of roman); demographic crisis (the true Romans had become wealthy on average and stopped having many children, while the "poor" less Romanized and less able to lead the administration and the army increased in number); religious crisis and fifths of moral values (Christianity greatly weakened the classical values of Roman times, and before replacing them with their own there was a period of widespread social malaise. Later on, classical and Christian values merged, giving rise to Western Civilization as we mean it today, but at that point the Roman Empire was already in irreversible decline).
回答4：
既有偶然也有必然. 每个帝国都有其自然的历史进程，包括罗马帝国。罗马的衰落有很多原因，我会尽量总结一下，如下：
1. 过度依赖奴隶经济(这迫使帝国继续进行军事扩张以猎取更多的奴隶);
2. 军事上无力再扩张(廉价劳动力短缺时，军事扩张会减缓经济、科学的发展);
3. 迷之因： 罗马没有发展海军（当时已经有基本的造船技术了）.
4. 因贪婪而扩张太急，囫囵吞下那些还没受过罗马教化的人口. 特别是在东方(这使得许多人进入了罗马政府，这些人既没有罗马的心态也不忠于罗马);
5. 人口危机(真正的罗马人富起来后，不愿再生很多孩子，而“穷人”罗马化程度较低，领导行政和军队的能力较弱);
(基督教极大地削弱了罗马时代的古典价值观，在用自己的价值观取代它们之前，有一段时间，社会非常不安).
Shan Hashmi, studied History & Business
Yes, the Roman Empire which split into the West and Eastern parts as a countermeasure to ease governance was foiled.See, Emperor Diocleation had great intentions and sought to fix the mess Rome was in - However it required that both Emperors and Caesar’s (essentially deputy emperors) be incredibly experienced and forgoing.This wasn’t the case as for the majority of their history, they spent at war with the Middle Eastern and constant raids from the Goths and barbarians from other tribes in Europe.Just like how the Germanic tribes almost crippled the Roman Empire during its early years, this time it was twice the intensity. Specially after having had to deal with countless wars.Rome was at war almost all the time and having survived through all that, really surprises me personally. Since a lot of the emperors that Rome had we’re severely inept or unfit to rule. At one point we had the praetorian guard literally selling off the throne to the highest bidder. And one of those bidders was essentially assassinated soon after.The amount of economic devastation, governless land. A lack of a component Emperor and a majority of the government looking out for its self i interests added in with constant war led to the empire’s downfall.Obviously it’s other counterpart survived and became the Byzantines until their fall at the hands of the Ottomans years later.
回答6：
是的，为缓解统治压力，罗马分裂为东、西两部分，但是最后还是失败了. 皇帝有好的意愿，想要解决罗马的乱局，但是，皇帝和凯撒（本质上是副皇帝）得有非常老道的手段才行. 他们显然达不到要求. 罗马一直在中东做战，同时不断遭受来自欧洲其他部落的哥特人和野蛮人的袭击。早期，日耳曼部落也差点灭了罗马帝国.
罗马几乎一直处于战争状态，却能在战争中幸存下来，这让我感到很惊讶。因为罗马的很多皇帝很昏庸，禁卫军挟持皇位，待价而沽. 竞争皇位的人，被暗杀的都有过.
政治荒废，经济崩溃，皇位不稳，官员谋私，在加上穷兵黩武，帝国就此衰落. 明显，罗马的对手幸存了下来，成为拜占庭人，直到几年后被奥斯曼人征服。
Yes, the Roman Empire which split into the West and Eastern parts as a countermeasure to ease governance was foiled.See, Emperor Diocleation had great intentions and sought to fix the mess Rome was in - However it required that both Emperors and Caesar’s (essentially deputy emperors) be incredibly experienced and forgoing.This wasn’t the case as for the majority of their history, they spent at war with the Middle Eastern and constant raids from the Goths and barbarians from other tribes in Europe.Just like how the Germanic tribes almost crippled the Roman Empire during its early years, this time it was twice the intensity. Specially after having had to deal with countless wars.Rome was at war almost all the time and having survived through all that, really surprises me personally. Since a lot of the emperors that Rome had we’re severely inept or unfit to rule. At one point we had the praetorian guard literally selling off the throne to the highest bidder. And one of those bidders was essentially assassinated soon after.The amount of economic devastation, governless land. A lack of a component Emperor and a majority of the government looking out for its self i interests added in with constant war led to the empire’s downfall.Obviously it’s other counterpart survived and became the Byzantines until their fall at the hands of the Ottomans years later.
回答6：
是的，为缓解统治压力，罗马分裂为东、西两部分，但是最后还是失败了. 皇帝有好的意愿，想要解决罗马的乱局，但是，皇帝和凯撒（本质上是副皇帝）得有非常老道的手段才行. 他们显然达不到要求. 罗马一直在中东做战，同时不断遭受来自欧洲其他部落的哥特人和野蛮人的袭击。早期，日耳曼部落也差点灭了罗马帝国.
罗马几乎一直处于战争状态，却能在战争中幸存下来，这让我感到很惊讶。因为罗马的很多皇帝很昏庸，禁卫军挟持皇位，待价而沽. 竞争皇位的人，被暗杀的都有过.
政治荒废，经济崩溃，皇位不稳，官员谋私，在加上穷兵黩武，帝国就此衰落. 明显，罗马的对手幸存了下来，成为拜占庭人，直到几年后被奥斯曼人征服。
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