Other nations are stepping up targets to reduce emissions — but the world will struggle to meet its goals.

尽管其他国家正在逐步制定减排目标,但世界将难以实现其避免全球气候恶化的目标。


The Arc de Triomphe is illuminated in green with the words "Paris Agreement is Done"
Nations struck the Paris climate agreement in 2015.Credit: Chesnot/Getty

2015年,世界各个主要国家达成了巴黎气候协定。“巴黎协定达成”的绿色字样照亮了凯旋门。图文来源: 谢诺/盖蒂


The landmark deal, struck in 2015, aims to limit global warming to “well below” 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. But in June 2017, US President Donald Trump announced that the United States — the world’s second largest emitter of greenhouse gases — would withdraw from the agreement.

这项具有里程碑意义的协议于2015年达成,其目标是将全球变暖控制在比工业化前温度“远低于”2摄氏度的范围内。但是在2017年6月,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布美国这个世界第二大温室气体排放国将退出该环保协定。

Nature examines how the withdrawal will affect global efforts to mitigate climate change.

《自然》就美国退出《巴黎气候协定》问题,探讨了这将对全球缓解气候变化的努力造成怎样的影响。

What is Trump’s climate legacy?

特朗普的气候遗留问题是什么?



Although the United States played a major part in crafting the climate agreement, it will be the only one out of the nearly 200 parties to pull out of the pact.

尽管美国曾在起草《巴黎气候协定》方面发挥了重要作用,但它也是近200个缔约方中唯一一个退出该协定的国家。

Which countries are taking the lead on climate-change mitigation?

现在哪些国家在减缓气候变化方面处于领先地位?



Other major economies, such as Japan and South Korea, pledged last month to become carbon neutral by 2050, but haven’t spelt out in detail how they will achieve it. In all, more than 60 countries worldwide — including all EU member states except Poland — have committed to achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century.

日本和韩国等其他主要经济体则在上月承诺,将在2050年前实现碳中和,但他们尚未详细说明将如何实现这一目标。此外,全世界总共有60多个国家(包括除波兰以外的所有欧盟成员国)承诺到本世纪中叶实现净零排放。

But without the United States, the balance among parties signed up to the Paris accord shifts in China’s favour on key issues that are yet to be settled. In particular, China could resist calls for detailed tracking and reporting of how countries are implementing policies and achieving their goals, says Michael Oppenheimer, a climate-policy researcher at Princeton University in New Jersey. “That bodes poorly for the effectiveness of the Paris agreement,” he says.

但在没有美国参与的情况下,签署《巴黎协定》的各方在尚未解决的关键问题上的平衡会转向对中国有利的方向。新泽西州普林斯顿大学(Princeton University)的气候政策研究员迈克尔·奥本海默(Michael Oppenheimer)表示,特别是中国,它可能会拒绝详细跟踪和报告各国如何执行政策和实现其目标的要求。他说:“这预示着《巴黎协定》效果不佳。”

Neither China nor the EU can fully make up for the gap the United States has left, says Susanne Dröge, a policy specialist at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin. “Leadership is not only about ambitious announcements, but also about a credible economic climate agenda as well as international cooperation,” she says.

位于柏林的德国国际和安全事务研究所的政策专家苏珊·德罗格说,中国和欧盟都无法完全弥补美国留下的空缺。她说:“领导力不仅在于雄心勃勃的一个宣布,还在于可信的经济气候议程以及国际合作。”

Can the world cope with the US withdrawal?

世界能应对美国的退出吗?

The task will become harder. Although high-emitting countries are increasingly keen to curb global warming, experts warn that current climate and energy policies are not enough to keep the world below 2 °C of warming. There has been a marked drop in greenhouse-gas emissions this year — because of reduced travel and economic activity during the coronavirus pandemic — but that will do little to get the world nearer to its climate goal, experts caution.

各国的任务将变得更加艰巨。尽管高排放国家越来越热衷于遏制全球变暖问题,但专家警告称,目前的气候和能源政策不足以将全球变暖幅度控制在2摄氏度以下。由于冠状病毒大流行期间旅游和经济活动减少,今年的温室气体排放量显著下降,但专家警告说,这对世界达到其气候目标几乎没有什么帮助。


“Green energy is not yet replacing fossil fuels — it is merely augmenting it,” says Timothy Lenton, a climate researcher at the University of Exeter, UK.

英国埃克塞特大学的气候研究员蒂莫西·莱顿说:“绿色能源还没有取代化石燃料——它只是在增加化石燃料的数量。”

So what’s next?

所以事情的走向将会怎样?


All remaining parties to the agreement must submit their new 2030 targets before the next major United Nations climate meeting, set to take place in Glasgow, UK, in November 2021 (this year’s climate summit was postponed because of the pandemic). So far, only 14 have proposed or submitted revised targets.

该协议的所有剩余缔约方必须在下一次联合国气候大会(定于2021年11月在英国格拉斯哥举行)之前提交他们新的2030年减排目标(今年的气候峰会因疫情而推迟)。截至目前,只有14个国家提出或提交了修订后的目标。

“The US withdrawal, if it is sustained by the next administration, will inevitably cause some countries to reduce their level of effort on implementing existing commitments,” says Oppenheimer.

奥本海默表示:“如果美国的退出也得到下届美国政府的支持,那么将不可避免地导致一些国家减少履行现有承诺的努力。”

Might a new president get the United States back on board?

下一任总统会让美国重新回到正轨吗?

Democratic candidate Joe Biden has said that if he is voted president, he will rejoin the Paris accord early in his presidency. The United States could once more become a party to the Paris agreement 30 days after officially informing the United Nations frxwork Convention on Climate Change that it wants to rejoin. The country would then need to submit a new emissions-reduction pledge for 2030.

民主党候选人乔·拜登表示,如果他当选总统,他将在任职初期就重新加入《巴黎协定》。即在美国正式通知《联合国气候变化框架公约》退出《巴黎气候协定》的30天后,美国可能会再次申请成为《巴黎气候协定》的缔约国。然后,其需要提交一份新的2030年减排承诺。


Whatever happens, the country will have lost credibility on climate action, says Oppenheimer. “The United States can’t simply jump back in and pretend it’s all back to 2015,” he says. “It will need to work to regain trust.”

奥本海默表示,无论接下来事情的走向如何,这个国家在气候行动上都会失去信誉。他说:“美国不能简单地跳回去,假装一切都回到了2015年。它需要努力重新获得世界的信任。”