Analysis by Tara John, CNN

CNN记者塔拉·约翰分析报道


Europe is now reporting more daily infections than the United States, Brazil, or India -- the countries that have been driving the global case count for months -- as public apathy grows towards coronavirus guidelines. Several countries are seeing infection rates spiral again after a summer lull that saw measures to contain the virus and travel restrictions relaxed.

随着公众对冠状病毒感染指南的忽视日益加深,日前欧洲报告的每日感染人数已经超过了前几个月全球疫情最为严重的美国、巴西和印度等国家。新冠病毒在夏季经历了一段时间的沉寂,所以这些国家控制病毒的措施和旅行限制都有所放松,但是就在前不久,新型冠状病毒在欧洲几个国家卷土重来,感染率再次急剧上升。


It is just the latest problem to beset Britain's slapdash pandemic response. There are now more patients in hospital with Covid-19 in England than there were in March, when a nationwide lockdown was imposed, according to Johnson and health officials.

这只是困扰英国草率应对新冠病毒的最新问题。根据约翰逊和卫生官员的说法,目前英国住院的新冠肺炎患者比3月份举国全面封锁时还要多。

France and the Netherlands broke their own records over the weekend, reporting the highest numbers of confirmed Covid-19 cases since the start of the pandemic.

与此同时,法国和荷兰上周末也打破了各自的记录,两国报告的新冠肺炎确诊病例数量均达到了疫情开始以来的最高水平。


Seven months after the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a global pandemic, life is closer to normal in the Asia-Pacific region thanks to the basic lessons of epidemiology: clear communication, quarantines, border controls, aggressive testing and contact tracing, Kenji Shibuya, the Director of the Institute for Population Health at King's College London, told CNN.

相比之下,在世界卫生组织(世卫组织)宣布全球新型冠状病毒七个月后,亚太地区的生活逐渐回归了正轨。伦敦国王学院人口健康研究所所长健济涩谷告诉CNN记者,这得益于亚太国家从流行病学中吸取的经验,在疫情防治中,他们坚持:明确的沟通、检疫、边境管制、积极的核酸检测和接触者追踪。



Singer Eric Chou takes a selfie with masked members of the audience while performing in a concert in Taipei, Taiwan, on August 9, 2020.

2020年8月9日,歌手埃里克·周在台湾台北举行的音乐会上与蒙面观众自拍。

European countries with successful pandemic responses, like Germany, have taken this approach.

德国采取亚太地区的疫情防治方法,成功地控制住了新冠病毒。

But experts say Spain, the US and the UK are seeing cases skyrocket, and cracks appear in the political and public consensus, after they opted to prematurely re-open their economies without heeding those rules.

但专家表示,由于此前政府选择在不遵守这些防治规则的情况下过早地重新开放经济,导致西班牙、美国和英国的案例激增,政治和公众共识也因此出现了裂痕。





Thousands of revelers gathered at an open air water park in the Chinese city of Wuhan, ground zero of the pandemic, for an electronic music festival in August.

今年8月,数千名狂欢者聚集在中国武汉(武汉是甲型流感的发源地)的一个露天水上公园参加一个电子音乐节。

This is a maddening idea to the vast majority of health professionals and scientists, who point to Covid-19's high fatality rate and its long-term effects on survivors.

对于绝大多数卫生专业人员和科学家来说,新冠肺炎死亡率高,对幸存者存在长期影响,所以放任不管是一个极其疯狂的想法。

"When countries [like the US and UK] experience declining life expectancy, it really should be a red flag," said Martin McKee, professor of European public health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Deteriorating health in populations has electoral consequences, McKee told CNN -- adding that historically, those factors caused "populism and then you get state failure."

伦敦卫生和热带医学学院欧洲公共卫生教授马丁·麦基表示:“当像美国和英国这样的国家的预期寿命下降时,这确实应该是一个危险信号。”麦基告诉CNN记者,人口健康状况恶化会对选举产生影响,他还补充说,从历史上看,这些因素会导致“民粹主义,继而会导致国家的奔溃。”

Classic epidemiology

典型的传染病学

Resurgences of Covid-19 in the Asia-Pacific region look a lot different to what is happening in the West. New Zealand pretty much eradicated community transmission within its borders after a minor outbreak in August, during which the virus' spread never rose beyond 19 new infections a day.

新冠肺炎在亚太地区的复发与在西方发生的情况有很大不同。在8月份的一次小规模疫情爆发后,新西兰基本上消除了国内的社区传播,在此期间,病毒的传播速度从未超过每天新增19人。

Border controls have been effective, says Shibuya. Singapore, Hong Kong and New Zealand have largely kept their borders closed to visitors, with returning citizens and work permit holders being quarantined at home or at designated facilities.

涉谷说,边境管制是有效的。新加坡、香港和新西兰基本上对游客关闭了边境,回国的公民和工作许可证持有人则会被隔离在家中或指定的设施内。

The same is true in Vietnam, which remains closed to most international travelers and, like many countries in the region, has encouraged citizens to holiday within its borders. The lower-middle income country has taken a proactive approach to the outbreak, bringing infections down to the single digits in October, little more than two months after authorities evacuated 80,000 local tourists from the resort city of Da Nang after three residents tested positive for the virus.

越南的情况也是如此。越南仍然不对大多数国际游客开放,而且像亚太地区的许多国家一样,越南鼓励公民在越南境内度假。这个中低收入国家对疫情采取了积极主动的应对措施,在10月份,越南将感染人数降至个位数,而就在两个多月前,在旅游城市岘港,当局在检测出三名居民病毒呈阳性后疏散了8万名当地游客。


By contrast, the European unx resumed inter-regional tourism in June, even though many European countries were slow to require visitors to undergo routine testing on arrival.

相比之下,尽管许多欧洲国家在要求游客抵达时接受例行检测方面行动迟缓,欧盟在6月还是恢复了跨区域旅游。

The United Nations' tourism agency, the UNWTO, found that "Europe is the region in which more destinations (81%) have eased travel restrictions" while only 28% of destinations in the Asia-Pacific region had eased border controls by September 1, according to its analysis of travel restrictions.

联合国旅游机构对旅游限制的分析显示,“欧洲有更多目的地(81%)放松了旅游限制的地区”,而截至9月1日,亚太地区只有28%的目的地放松了边境管制。


Taiwan and South Korea, which had the world's second highest number of cases in February, kept a handle on outbreaks without blunt instruments like lockdowns thanks to their gold standard test and tracing systems, and a transparent communication strategy that has kept the public on side.

台湾和韩国今年2月的病例数量位居世界第二,但是由于拥有黄金标准的检测和追踪系统,以及透明的沟通策略,这两个国家能够在没有采取封锁等强硬手段的情况下应对疫情。

The UK deploys conventional contact-tracing methods, which identify cases and track down the people they met after they became infectious, says McKee. Meanwhile, Asian countries like South Korea have relied on what is known as backwards tracing, which attempts to identify the event, place or source of an infection.

麦基说,英国采用的是传统的接触追踪方法,这种方法可以识别病例并追踪他们在感染后遇到的人。与此同时,韩国等亚洲国家一直在依靠所谓的“回溯追踪”,即试图确定感染事件、地点或源头。


Even the economic situation looks less stark. The IMF forecasts that the economy in the Asia-Pacific region will contract by 0.2% this year, while those in US and Western Europe are expected to sink by 5.9% and 7.3% respectively.

亚太地区的经济形势看起来也没有那么严峻。国际货币基金组织预测,今年亚太地区经济将萎缩0.2%,美国和西欧经济预计将分别萎缩5.9%和7.3%。

Cultural tropes

文化取向

Asia-Pacific's response has been shaped by the 2003 SARS outbreak. Trauma from that period meant many Asian countries were better prepared and better resourced to act decisively at start of the pandemic with public approval.

在经历过2003年非典型肺炎的爆发后,亚太地区就形成了成熟的疫情应对措施。那段时期的创伤意味着许多亚洲国家有了更好的准备和更好的资源,能够在大流行病开始时在公众的认可下采取果断行动。


Countries like Norway and the Netherlands recommend masks in indoor public spaces, but do not mandate it. Swedish authorities have actively discouraged the use of masks, despite the high number of Covid-19 deaths in care homes.

挪威和荷兰等国家建议在室内公共场所佩戴口罩,但没有强制规定。尽管养老院中新冠肺炎死亡人数众多,但瑞典当局仍然积极劝阻公众佩戴口罩。


Though he has since changed tack, in March Johnson said he shook hands "with everybody" during a visit to a hospital treating confirmed Covid-19 patients, on the same day the government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies advocated against the practice. Trump has turned masks into a hyper-partisan issue, routinely mocking Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden for wearing a face covering.

尽管此后他们改变了策略,但在3月,约翰逊说他在访问一家治疗确诊新冠肺炎患者的医院时“与每个人”握手,同一天,政府紧急情况科学咨询小组就主张反对这种做法。美国总统特朗普则把面具变成了一个超党派问题,他经常嘲笑民主党总统候选人乔·拜登戴口罩的做法。


US President Donald Trump removes his mask on his return to the White House from Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, where he was treated for coronavirus.

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普此前因为感染新冠肺炎而在沃尔特·里德国家军事医疗中心接受冠状病毒治疗,在治疗结束返回白宫时他就摘下了口罩。



Winning trust

赢得信任

That trust can easily be lost. A study in The Lancet found that when Johnson's chief adviser, Dominic Cummings, broke lockdown rules but faced no consequences, it undermined the public's faith in the government's ability to handle the pandemic. The opposite happened in New Zealand, where David Clark, its Health Minister, was demoted in April 2020 after twice breaking the country's Covid-19 regulations. He resigned in July and goodwill for the government has remained.

这种信任很容易就会丧失。《柳叶刀》的一项研究发现,当约翰逊的首席顾问多米尼克·卡明斯打破了封锁规定却没有面临任何后果时,这削弱了公众对政府应对疫情能力的信心。新西兰的情况则正好相反,该国卫生部长戴维·克拉克因两次违反该国的新冠病毒防治规定,于2020年4月被降职。之后,他于今年7月辞职,所以公众对政府充满了好感。


Taiwan's government deployed a cartoon spokesdog to help communicate its social distancing policy.
New Zealand and South Korea adopted a "division-of-labour approach to communicating political and scientific information," the report noted. Public health officials would first deliver the science. The message would be humanized and reinforced with meaning by politicians like New Zealand's Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern or South Korea's President Moon Jae-on in televised addresses or Facebook lives, Tworek said.

台湾政府部署了一个卡通发言人来帮助传达其社会隔离政策。 报告指出,新西兰和韩国的公共卫生官员首先提供科学依据,然后采用了“用劳动分工的方式来传播政治和科学信息”的方法。托雷克说,新西兰总理杰辛达·阿德恩或韩国总统文在寅在电视讲话或脸书直播中发表的讲话,将使这一信息变得人性化,并赋予其意义。

Misinformation and conspiracies were tackled in South Korea and Taiwan via high quality information being pushed out on multiple channels, Tworek added. To engage the public, the Taiwanese government worked with local comedians to create memes for their "humor over rumor" strategy. It included the use of a cartoon "spokesdog," a Shiba Inu called Zongchai, to help communicate its policies. One meme showed that the 1.5 meter indoor social distancing policy equated to the length of three Shiba Inu, while the outdoor social distancing policy was two Shiba Inu.

特沃雷克补充说,韩国和台湾通过多渠道推出高质量的信息来解决错误信息和阴谋的问题。为了吸引公众参与,台湾政府与当地喜剧演员合作,为他们的“以幽默换谣言”策略创造了模因。它还使用了一只名为“总柴”的柴犬卡通形象“代言狗”来帮助宣传它的政策。其中一个模因显示,1.5米的室内社交距离政策相当于3只柴犬,而户外社交距离政策相当于2只柴犬。

Masks were distributed to Taiwanese households at the start of the pandemic -- many of them in a shade of pink. After hearing that male students were being bullied for wearing pink masks at schools, officials wore pink face coverings at their daily briefing. "It is fantastic because it's not just about countering disinformation, it is about countering stigma and prejudice," Tworek said. "This is not rocket science. These are basic tenets of health and risk communications [in order to] establish trust."

在疫情爆发之初,人们向台湾家庭发放了口罩,许多家庭的口罩都是粉红色的。在听说有男学生在学校戴粉色口罩被欺负后,官员们在每日简报中戴上了粉色的口罩。特沃雷克说:“这很棒,因为这不仅仅是为了打击虚假信息,也是打击了耻辱和偏见。” “这不是什么难做的事。为了建立信任,这些是健康和风险沟通的基本原则。”

Have an upcoming election in the pandemic? Asian democracies also have a solution to that. South Korea saw its highest turnout in April's poll as voters wore masks and gloves, polling booths were disinfected, and people spaced out as they queued to vote. In the US, officials are turning large venues and sports centers into polling stations in order to accommodate social distancing concerns in November's poll.

选举遇上疫情? 亚洲民主国家也有解决办法。 韩国在4月份的投票中出现了最高的投票率,选民们戴着口罩和手套,投票站进行了消毒,人们在排队投票时保持安全距离。在美国,为了减轻11月大选中人们对社交距离的担忧,官员们正把大型场馆和体育中心改造成投票站。


A South Korean woman wears plastic gloves and a mask as she prepares to cast her ballot during April's election.

一名韩国妇女戴着塑料手套和口罩,准备在四月的选举中投票。

New Zealand and Hong Kong postponed elections over the summer, citing coronavirus fears. While the main New Zealand opposition party backed the move, some pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong claimed the government was using the pandemic as an excuse to avoid potential losses in a crucial election.

新西兰和香港由于担心冠状病毒而推迟了今年夏天的选举。 虽然新西兰主要反对党支持这一举措,但香港的一些支持民主的活动家声称,政府正在以疫情作为借口,避免在关键的选举中可能的失败。


As Trump continues to downplay the threat of the virus, another 20,000 Covid-19 deaths are "inevitable" by the end of the month, former director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Tom Frieden, told CNN this weekend.

美国疾病控制和预防中心前主任汤姆·弗里登上周末告诉CNN记者,由于特朗普继续淡化病毒的威胁,到本月底将“不可避免地”再出现2万例新冠肺炎死亡病例。

Unlike the Asia-Pacific region, the West appears to be well on its way to a tragic winter.

与亚太地区不同的是,西方似乎正在走向一个悲惨的冬天。