By Ruchir Sharma

卢舍.夏尔马报导


Even as Covid-19 continues to bubble up in hot spots all over the world, many people are asking which economies are poised to rise, and which to fail. The first principle is to understand the global environment at any point in time, which now means understanding which rules will be most critical in the post-pandemic world.

当新冠肺炎在世界各地的热点地区继续传播时,许多人都在好奇哪些经济体将会崛起或衰退。要了解世界经济,第一个原则是了解全球环境,现如今则意味着要了解在疫情后的世界中哪些规则是最重要的。




What this means for the post-pandemic world is that of my ‘10 Rules of Successful Nations’, those on geography and trade, state competence, debt and investment will have the greatest impact on national success.

在我的“成功国家的10条规则”中,这对疫情后的世界意味着那些关于地理和贸易、国家能力、债务和投资的规则将对国家的经济发展产生最大的影响。

The four key strengths: a strong domestic market (or unusual export prowess); a competent government, measured here by the indicators that matter most right now, cases and deaths per million from Covid-19; government debt and deficits; and digital sophistication, including heavy investment in research and development. Screening the major developed and emerging economies for these strengths yields a fascinating and rather surprising list.

疫情后促进国内经济发展的四大主要优势包括 : 强大的国内市场(或不寻常的出口能力); 一个称职的政府,这是当前最重要的指标,主要以新冠肺炎的感染率和死亡率来衡量; 政府债务和赤字; 数字化的复杂性,这包括在研发方面的巨额投资。通过对主要发达国家和新兴经济体的这些优势进行筛选,就可以得出一份疫情下各个经济体发展情况的名单。





Meanwhile, topping the list of potential post-pandemic winners are…

与此同时,潜在的疫情后赢家是……


Germany was the rare country that went into the pandemic with relatively low levels of debt. It could afford the biggest domestic stimulus package of any major nation, and despite extending offers of stimulus to its fellow EU members, it will still come out with the lowest public debt, by far, of any major power. With Merkel leading the effort to create a European Recovery Fund, which could help bridge the continent’s north-south divide, her legacy may well be some sort of a European Renaissance .

德国是罕见的在爆发疫情时债务水平相对较低的国家。与其他主要国家相比,它能够负担得起规模最大的国内刺激方案,而且尽管它向欧盟其他成员国提供了刺激方案,但它的公共债务仍将是迄今为止所有主要国家中最低的。默克尔领导建立的欧洲复苏基金可能有助于弥合欧洲大陆的南北分歧,这个基金也很可能促进某种形式的欧洲复兴。

Finland: Nokia may have gone the way of the dodo but its old nest is now home to Microsoft, and Finland keeps producing tech giants like Rovio, maker of ‘Angry Birds.’ A top ten tech power according to IMD. With a competent bureaucracy, little household debt and manageable public debt, Finland has no glaring vulnerability to the challenges of the post-pandemic period.

芬兰 : 诺基亚可能被人们所淡忘了,但它的老巢现在成了微软的总部。芬兰还在不断涌现科技巨头,比如《愤怒的小鸟》的制造商罗维奥。洛桑国际管理发展学院的十大科技巨头。芬兰有一个能力出众的官僚机构,在其管理之下,芬兰家庭债务很少,公共债务可控,在疫情后的各种挑战面前不存在明显的弱点。

Switzerland: Perhaps Europe’s most streamlined, least centralised government, it has brought the Covid-19 death rate down to near zero, and created an economic relief agency that surprises small business by delivering support loans in a matter of hours.

瑞士 : 瑞士可能是欧洲最精简、最分散的政府,但它已经将新冠肺炎的死亡率降至接近于零。瑞士还成立了一个经济救助机构,该机构在几个小时内就可以提供贷款帮助企业渡过危机,这令小企业大感意外。

Astonishingly competitive for such a small country, Switzerland has a smaller population than the Scandinavian countries, but has created twice as many top-100 European companies as the Scandinavian countries combined. The Swiss also generate among the most patents per person in the world and invest heavily in R&D, which is why Switzerland is a top five global tech power as well. (Its one weakness: household mortgage debt.)

对于这样一个小国来说,瑞士的竞争力简直令人惊讶。瑞士的人口比北欧国家还少,但它创立的欧洲百强企业数量是北欧国家总和的两倍。瑞士还拥有世界上最多的人均专利,同时它在研发方面也投入了巨资,这也是瑞士成为全球五大科技强国的原因。(它的一个弱点是家庭抵押贷款债务。)

Vietnam: Vietnam is realising its potential as “the next China”, a major export power. With an efficient post-communist government, Vietnam has had stunning success containing the pandemic, with only 34 deaths to date. As the rest of the world turns against immigration and trade, Vietnam continues to open up, signing 15 free trade agreements in the last decade.

越南:越南正在发挥其作为制造国的潜力,想要成为一个主要的出口大国。在一个高效的后共产主义政府的领导下,越南在控制疫情方面取得了惊人的成绩,越南迄今为止只有34人死亡。当世界其他国家开始反对移民和贸易时,越南继续对外开放,在过去10年里签署了15项自由贸易协议。

One of precious few nations that was attracting investment in its export factories at an accelerating pace, rapidly moving up the manufacturing ladder, from stitching together sneakers to making smartphones and AirPods. The domestic economy is leapfrogging the landline age straight into the mobile internet age. Outside a few small outliers, Vietnam is on track to finish 2020 as the world’s fastest growing economy.

越南是为数不多的几个出口工厂正在加速吸引投资的国家之一,从缝制运动鞋到制造智能手机和AirPods,它的制造业正迅速升级。越南的国内经济正跨过座机时代,直接进入移动互联网时代。除了特殊情况之外,越南有望在2020年结束时成为全球增长最快的经济体。

Taiwan: Along with South Korea, Taiwan is one of the two nations able to grow at a rapid pace for five decades in a row. Both rank among the top EM countries on all four post-pandemic factors. Taiwan gets the spotlight by a narrow margin. Like South Korea, it invests heavily in tech and is already one of the world’s most digitised countries.

台湾地区 : 和韩国一样,台湾地区是两个能够连续50年快速增长的地区之一。在疫情后的所有四个因素上,韩国和台湾都位居新兴市场国家和地区前列,不过台湾地区以微弱优势进入名单。和韩国一样,台湾地区在科技上投入大量资金,已经是世界上数字化程度最高的地区之一。

But Taiwan has a slightly lower government deficit and debt, and has capped its Covid-19 death rate at 0.3 per million — lowest among major emerging and developed economies. The Achilles Heel for both is a relatively small and debt-soaked consumer economy, but Taiwan’s consumer market is slightly larger (as a share of GDP) and less debt-ridden.

但台湾地区的政府赤字和债务略低,此外,台湾地区冠状病毒病死亡率控制在百万分之0.3,这在主要新兴经济体和发达经济体中是最低的。韩国和台湾地区的致命弱点都是相对较小且负债累累的消费经济,但台湾的消费市场规模略大(占GDP的比重),债务负担也较轻。

Russia: A dark horse, Russia does not in fact score in the top five on any single post-pandemic factor. It makes the list largely because it has turned itself into a financial fortress mostly impervious to global markets. In 2014, the debilitating impact of international sanction for the invasion of Ukraine, coupled with a drop in oil prices, persuaded Vladimir Putin’s government to focus on paying down foreign debts and saving oil profits to seal itself from foreign pressure. Russian finances are now so solid, the ruble — unlike other petro currencies — no longer whipsaws with the price of oil.

俄罗斯 : 一匹黑马。事实上,俄罗斯在任何一个疫情后因素上都没有进入前五名。它之所以能上榜,很大程度上是因为它已经把自己变成了基本上不受全球市场影响的金融堡垒。2014年,国际社会对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的制裁产生了破坏性影响,再加上油价下跌,这促使弗拉基米尔·普京的政府将重点放在偿还外债和节省石油利润上,以避免受到外国媒体的冲击。如今,俄罗斯的财政状况非常稳定,与其它石油货币不同,卢布不再随油价波动。

Serendipitously, this insulation from global markets could prove even more valuable at a time when more than half the countries in the world have gone to the IMF for financial help to survive the pandemic.

凑巧的是,在世界上超过一半的国家已经向国际货币基金组织寻求金融援助以抵御疫情之际,俄罗斯这种与全球市场的隔绝的情况可能反而会更有助于本国经济的发展。

Thanks in part to the legacy of Soviet science and applied technology, Russia also has a reasonably advanced digital economy, one of the few to produce domestic internet companies that have the potential to withstand challenges from the American and Chinese giants.

同时,得益于苏联遗留的科学和应用技术,俄罗斯还拥有相当先进的数字经济,拥有国际上少数几个有潜力抵御美国和中国巨头挑战的互联网公司之一。

It is telling of the coming era that a case can be made to include countries as different as Russia and Germany on this list. To thrive, economies will need a strong defense against the pressures of deglobalisation, debt, and meddling governments, coupled with an offense capable of exploiting the opportunities in the booming digital economy.

在即将到来的时代,我们有理由将像俄罗斯和德国这样不同的国家列入这一名单。为了繁荣,经济将需要强大的防御力量来抵御去全球化、债务和干预政府的压力,同时还要有能力利用蓬勃发展的数字经济中的机遇。

Though to very different degrees all these nations, so often on opposite sides of history, share this mix of strengths for the future. They have a good shot at thriving in a difficult post-pandemic world.

尽管这些国家在很大程度上不同,但它们在历史上往往处于对立的两端,但如果在未来共享这种优势组合,它们就很有可能在疫情后艰难的世界中蓬勃发展。

DISCLAIMER : Views expressed above are the author's own.

免责声明:以上观点仅为作者个人观点。