QA问答：东南亚哪些国家的未来最黑暗？为什么？（二）
What countries in Southeast Asia have the darkest future? Why?
译文简介
在（东南亚）主要的海洋经济体中（新加坡、马来西亚、印度尼西亚、泰国、菲律宾、越南），这个头衔（未来最黑暗）属于泰国。
正文翻译
Wasut Pornpatcharapong, lives in Chiang Mai, Thailand (2018-present) Answered July 18
Amongst major SEA economies (Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam), the title belongs to Thailand.We have looming demographics time bomb, and we got stuck in the middle income trap. We fail to ride the wave of the 4th Industrial Revolution. Compared to other major SEA economies, we don't even have unicorns.
在（东南亚）主要的海洋经济体中（新加坡、马来西亚、印度尼西亚、泰国、菲律宾、越南），这个头衔（未来最黑暗）属于泰国。我们有一个迫在眉睫的人口定时炸弹，我们陷入了中等收入的陷阱，我们没能赶上第四次工业革命的浪潮。与其他主要海洋经济体相比，我们甚至没有独角兽。
Amongst major SEA economies (Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam), the title belongs to Thailand.We have looming demographics time bomb, and we got stuck in the middle income trap. We fail to ride the wave of the 4th Industrial Revolution. Compared to other major SEA economies, we don't even have unicorns.
在（东南亚）主要的海洋经济体中（新加坡、马来西亚、印度尼西亚、泰国、菲律宾、越南），这个头衔（未来最黑暗）属于泰国。我们有一个迫在眉睫的人口定时炸弹，我们陷入了中等收入的陷阱，我们没能赶上第四次工业革命的浪潮。与其他主要海洋经济体相比，我们甚至没有独角兽。
图一：东南亚的独角兽企业估值（单位：10亿美元）
We are also mired in political instability, and we are destined to be greatly affected by global warming (Bangkok is slightly above the sea level). With COVID-19, tourism as an industry that provides much-needed hard currency for our economy also came to a screeching halt. Our income inequality is also among the worst in the world.But development and progress are dynamical. Thailand's prospects may seem so bleak now, but hey, who knows what the future may hold? Maybe someday someone will come in and turn things around.
我们还深陷政治不稳定的泥潭，我们注定会受到全球变暖的严重影响（曼谷略高于海平面）。随着新冠疫情的出现，作为我们经济急需的硬通货的旅游业也戛然而去。我们的收入不平等也是世界上最严重的，但发展和进步是动态的。泰国的前景现在看起来很黯淡，但是，谁知道未来会怎样呢？也许有一天会有人来扭转局面。
我们还深陷政治不稳定的泥潭，我们注定会受到全球变暖的严重影响（曼谷略高于海平面）。随着新冠疫情的出现，作为我们经济急需的硬通货的旅游业也戛然而去。我们的收入不平等也是世界上最严重的，但发展和进步是动态的。泰国的前景现在看起来很黯淡，但是，谁知道未来会怎样呢？也许有一天会有人来扭转局面。
评论翻译
Erwin Anciano
The Philippines to be honest is largely in the same boat.We don’t have the demographic time bomb problem but we have a lot of other problems too. If I had to rank it though we’re just slightly above Thailand for future prospects.This is how I’d rate it from brightest to darkest.
Singapore
Malaysia
Indonesia
Vietnam
Philippines
Thailand
老实说，菲律宾在很大程度上也是如此。我们没有人口定时炸弹的问题，但是我们也有很多其他的问题。如果我必须要排名的话，从未来的前景来看，我们只是略高于泰国。这是我给前景最好到最差的国家的评分。新加坡、马来西亚、印尼、越南、菲律宾、泰国
The Philippines to be honest is largely in the same boat.We don’t have the demographic time bomb problem but we have a lot of other problems too. If I had to rank it though we’re just slightly above Thailand for future prospects.This is how I’d rate it from brightest to darkest.
Singapore
Malaysia
Indonesia
Vietnam
Philippines
Thailand
老实说，菲律宾在很大程度上也是如此。我们没有人口定时炸弹的问题，但是我们也有很多其他的问题。如果我必须要排名的话，从未来的前景来看，我们只是略高于泰国。这是我给前景最好到最差的国家的评分。新加坡、马来西亚、印尼、越南、菲律宾、泰国
Wasut Pornpatcharapong
I agree. That's a good assessment.
我同意。这是一个很好的评估。
I agree. That's a good assessment.
我同意。这是一个很好的评估。
Joey Guadalupe
Vietnam has worst population demographic time bomb than thailand. But theyll get by, and i believe thailand will too.
相比泰国，越南的人口炸弹更糟糕。但我相信他们会过去的，我相信泰国也会过去。
Vietnam has worst population demographic time bomb than thailand. But theyll get by, and i believe thailand will too.
相比泰国，越南的人口炸弹更糟糕。但我相信他们会过去的，我相信泰国也会过去。
Erwin Anciano
This is indeed an issue. Its not the same geriatric time bomb Thailand has, but it can be just as deadly.Strictly speaking the size of the land isn't a problem. Its that most of it isn't developed. More of the land outside the main cities needs to be urbanized or developed otherwise the economy can't sustain the population bomb.
这确实是个问题。这和泰国的老年人定时炸弹不同，但同样致命。严格地说，土地的大小不是问题，大部分都还没有开发出来。主要城市以外的更多土地需要城市化或发展，否则经济无法承受人口爆炸。
This is indeed an issue. Its not the same geriatric time bomb Thailand has, but it can be just as deadly.Strictly speaking the size of the land isn't a problem. Its that most of it isn't developed. More of the land outside the main cities needs to be urbanized or developed otherwise the economy can't sustain the population bomb.
这确实是个问题。这和泰国的老年人定时炸弹不同，但同样致命。严格地说，土地的大小不是问题，大部分都还没有开发出来。主要城市以外的更多土地需要城市化或发展，否则经济无法承受人口爆炸。
Do Duc Nam
Urbanization came up with industrialization, without industry, how Philippines can manage to develops underdevelopment regions?
城市化是工业化的产物，没有工业，菲律宾又如何发展欠发达地区呢？
Urbanization came up with industrialization, without industry, how Philippines can manage to develops underdevelopment regions?
城市化是工业化的产物，没有工业，菲律宾又如何发展欠发达地区呢？
Erwin Anciano
And that sir is the crux of the problem and the reason why I say the Philippines has a dark future.
先生，这就是问题的症结所在，也是我说菲律宾前途暗淡的原因。
And that sir is the crux of the problem and the reason why I say the Philippines has a dark future.
先生，这就是问题的症结所在，也是我说菲律宾前途暗淡的原因。
Edwin Tomy (എഡ്വിൻ ടോമി)
I’d say Philippines has the opposite demographic time bomb, it’s birth and growth rate is too high.
我觉得菲律宾有着相反的人口结构定时炸弹，菲律宾的出生率和增长率都太高了。
I’d say Philippines has the opposite demographic time bomb, it’s birth and growth rate is too high.
我觉得菲律宾有着相反的人口结构定时炸弹，菲律宾的出生率和增长率都太高了。
Vivianne Chin
funny though, i would rank thailand higher than malaysia and vietnam higher than thailand hahah, guess grass is greener on the other side.
有趣的是，我认为泰国比马来西亚更有前景，越南比泰国更有前景，哈哈，换言之，越南和泰国更有前景。
funny though, i would rank thailand higher than malaysia and vietnam higher than thailand hahah, guess grass is greener on the other side.
有趣的是，我认为泰国比马来西亚更有前景，越南比泰国更有前景，哈哈，换言之，越南和泰国更有前景。
Hu Shi Xiong
Lol I was thinking in comparison with current status Singapore has the darkest
哈哈，我认为，就目前的状况看，相比起来，新加坡（的未来）是最黑暗的。
Lol I was thinking in comparison with current status Singapore has the darkest
哈哈，我认为，就目前的状况看，相比起来，新加坡（的未来）是最黑暗的。
Billy Regal
No, currently Indonesia is surpassing Malaysia REALLY GREATLY, all you see now in Malaysia is done many years ago.
不，目前印尼（的发展）正在大大超过马来西亚，你现在在马来西亚看到的一切都是多年前完成的。
No, currently Indonesia is surpassing Malaysia REALLY GREATLY, all you see now in Malaysia is done many years ago.
不，目前印尼（的发展）正在大大超过马来西亚，你现在在马来西亚看到的一切都是多年前完成的。
Jim Cy Sia
·
August 2
Philippines too will be saved by china, good heavens duterte is running Philippines.Indonesia will grow strongly.Singapore likely to go downhill, unless Singapore move to wards china
菲律宾也会被中国拯救，杜特尔特正在统治菲律宾。印尼将强劲增长。除非新加坡转向中国，否则新加坡可能会走下坡路。
·
August 2
Philippines too will be saved by china, good heavens duterte is running Philippines.Indonesia will grow strongly.Singapore likely to go downhill, unless Singapore move to wards china
菲律宾也会被中国拯救，杜特尔特正在统治菲律宾。印尼将强劲增长。除非新加坡转向中国，否则新加坡可能会走下坡路。
Arga Akhmada
In what way we are behind Vietnam? even WAY behind?
我们在哪些方面落后于越南？甚至远远落后？
In what way we are behind Vietnam? even WAY behind?
我们在哪些方面落后于越南？甚至远远落后？
Johannes Sulistyo
Agriculture, our stubbornly traditional farming methods are no match for Vietnam, although modernisation is on the way.Coffee for instance, Vietnam produced 1.6 million tonnes per year, while Indonesia is at 722 thousand tonnes.Tea and soybeans are the same. We are way behind Vietnam, despite drinking a lot of “teh” and “tahu (tofu) & tempe” being our common staple food.
农业，我们顽固的传统耕作方式无法与越南匹敌，尽管现代化正在进行中。例如，越南每年生产160万吨咖啡，而印度尼西亚每年生产72.2万吨。茶和大豆也同样如此。尽管我们经常喝“茶”、吃“豆腐和豆豉”，但我们还是远远落后于越南。
Agriculture, our stubbornly traditional farming methods are no match for Vietnam, although modernisation is on the way.Coffee for instance, Vietnam produced 1.6 million tonnes per year, while Indonesia is at 722 thousand tonnes.Tea and soybeans are the same. We are way behind Vietnam, despite drinking a lot of “teh” and “tahu (tofu) & tempe” being our common staple food.
农业，我们顽固的传统耕作方式无法与越南匹敌，尽管现代化正在进行中。例如，越南每年生产160万吨咖啡，而印度尼西亚每年生产72.2万吨。茶和大豆也同样如此。尽管我们经常喝“茶”、吃“豆腐和豆豉”，但我们还是远远落后于越南。
Tudor Reece
In my years in Thailand I did see that ordinary Thai people can pull together and work with each other wonderfully if times get hard. But unfortunately, this is not macroeconomics.Thailand does produce a decent amount of machinery and tech goods, which is a profitable thing, but I don’t believe it’s enough. And from what I’ve learned, the tourism, while still booming, is pretty minor to the economy.Thailand’s issue is sustainability and planning for the future, from what I can see. Too many super rich guys and not enough grass roots development.
在泰国的那些年里，我确实看到，如果时局艰难，泰国普通民众可以齐心协力，彼此出色地合作。但不幸的是，这不是在宏观经济层面。泰国确实生产了相当数量的机械和科技产品，这是有利可图的，但我认为这还不够。据我所知，旅游业虽然仍在蓬勃发展，但对经济的影响并不大。在我看来，泰国的问题是可持续发展和对未来的规划。超级富豪太多，基层发展不够。
In my years in Thailand I did see that ordinary Thai people can pull together and work with each other wonderfully if times get hard. But unfortunately, this is not macroeconomics.Thailand does produce a decent amount of machinery and tech goods, which is a profitable thing, but I don’t believe it’s enough. And from what I’ve learned, the tourism, while still booming, is pretty minor to the economy.Thailand’s issue is sustainability and planning for the future, from what I can see. Too many super rich guys and not enough grass roots development.
在泰国的那些年里，我确实看到，如果时局艰难，泰国普通民众可以齐心协力，彼此出色地合作。但不幸的是，这不是在宏观经济层面。泰国确实生产了相当数量的机械和科技产品，这是有利可图的，但我认为这还不够。据我所知，旅游业虽然仍在蓬勃发展，但对经济的影响并不大。在我看来，泰国的问题是可持续发展和对未来的规划。超级富豪太多，基层发展不够。
Wasut Pornpatcharapong
In the past, yes. I would say 2001–2006 was the most optimistic period in recent history of Thailand, so people were hopeful of their bright future. However, since 2006, Thailand got stuck in a political mess that doesn't seem to ever get resolved, and we became much more polarized akin to the polarization of US politics post-Reagan.
In terms of machineries and high tech goods, the problem is we are merely manufacturing for someone else but we don't have our own brands. (Even Vietnam has their own car brand, but Thailand doesn't). Our rich people are good at retailing and reselling, but poor at innovation, and general populace are risk-averse and prefer to work as salarymen / women in the government or big, reputable companies for the sake of financial stability (this is getting worse as the economy becomes worse in recent years). This leads to the relative absence of Thailand in a startup scene compare to our neighbors.
Tourism is also a significant chunk of our economy, and it became more significant in recent years, (17% of GDP in the first half of 2019)Because of this, our economy is predicted to crash the most in ASEAN-6 this year, and recovered the least next year.
在过去，是的。我想说2001-2006年是泰国近代历史上最乐观的时期，所以人们对他们光明的未来充满希望。然而，自2006年以来，泰国陷入了似乎无法解决的政治混乱，我们变得更加两极化，类似于后里根时代的美国政治两极化。就机械和高科技产品而言，问题是我们只是在为别人制造，却没有自己的品牌。就连越南也有自己的汽车品牌，但泰国没有。
我们国家的富人善于零售业和批发，但是在创新上很可怜，而且一般民众厌恶风险，宁愿做上班族，女性倾向于做公务员，或者为了收入稳定去大的、信誉良好的公司，随着近年来经济变得更糟，这一局面在恶化。
这就导致了与我们的邻居相比，泰国在创业场景中的相对缺失。旅游业也是我们经济的重要组成部分，近年来更加重要（2019年上半年旅游业占GDP的17%）。正因为如此，我们今年的经济预计在东盟6国中下跌得最严重，而明年复苏也很有限。
In the past, yes. I would say 2001–2006 was the most optimistic period in recent history of Thailand, so people were hopeful of their bright future. However, since 2006, Thailand got stuck in a political mess that doesn't seem to ever get resolved, and we became much more polarized akin to the polarization of US politics post-Reagan.
In terms of machineries and high tech goods, the problem is we are merely manufacturing for someone else but we don't have our own brands. (Even Vietnam has their own car brand, but Thailand doesn't). Our rich people are good at retailing and reselling, but poor at innovation, and general populace are risk-averse and prefer to work as salarymen / women in the government or big, reputable companies for the sake of financial stability (this is getting worse as the economy becomes worse in recent years). This leads to the relative absence of Thailand in a startup scene compare to our neighbors.
Tourism is also a significant chunk of our economy, and it became more significant in recent years, (17% of GDP in the first half of 2019)Because of this, our economy is predicted to crash the most in ASEAN-6 this year, and recovered the least next year.
在过去，是的。我想说2001-2006年是泰国近代历史上最乐观的时期，所以人们对他们光明的未来充满希望。然而，自2006年以来，泰国陷入了似乎无法解决的政治混乱，我们变得更加两极化，类似于后里根时代的美国政治两极化。就机械和高科技产品而言，问题是我们只是在为别人制造，却没有自己的品牌。就连越南也有自己的汽车品牌，但泰国没有。
我们国家的富人善于零售业和批发，但是在创新上很可怜，而且一般民众厌恶风险，宁愿做上班族，女性倾向于做公务员，或者为了收入稳定去大的、信誉良好的公司，随着近年来经济变得更糟，这一局面在恶化。
这就导致了与我们的邻居相比，泰国在创业场景中的相对缺失。旅游业也是我们经济的重要组成部分，近年来更加重要（2019年上半年旅游业占GDP的17%）。正因为如此，我们今年的经济预计在东盟6国中下跌得最严重，而明年复苏也很有限。
Tudor Reece
Thanks for the insights. I used the words grass roots in a poor context really. I should rather referred to small start-ups.
谢谢你的洞察力，我上文的基层指代确实不清楚，我指的应该是小型初创企业。
Thanks for the insights. I used the words grass roots in a poor context really. I should rather referred to small start-ups.
谢谢你的洞察力，我上文的基层指代确实不清楚，我指的应该是小型初创企业。
Wasut Pornpatcharapong
The problem with Thai SMEs is really lack of innovation and the herd mentality is very strong in Thailand, so whatever is trendy at the time, people will rush to follow. For example, there are a lot of chic coffeeshops across the country because people think that Thais are obsessed with social media and they will go drink coffee and post their cool photos on Facebook or Instagram. Also, it's not hard like building a business system that actually solve problems, which is the basis of many successful startups. Thais are good social animal, but lazy at innovations. Hence, the coffeeshop phenomenon.
With the pandemic raging on, many of those coffeeshops are forced to close doors, and investment money, many of which life savings for a lot of people, gone in a blx of an eye.Another similar trends are chic restaurants, small pastry entrepreneurs and handcrafts. Those are easy to start and use much less capital, but since everyone thinks it's easy to make money from this so it's hard to find ones that truly stand out, and it's a race to the bottom for many Thais.
泰国中小企业的问题是缺乏创新，而且从众心理在泰国非常强烈，所以无论当时流行什么，人们都会争相跟风。例如，泰国各地有很多时髦的咖啡馆，因为人们认为泰国人痴迷于社交媒体，他们会去喝咖啡，然后把自己很酷的照片上传到脸书或Instagram上。而且，建立一个真正解决问题的商业系统并不难，这是许多成功创业的基础。泰国人是优秀的社会动物，但不善于创新。因此，出现了咖啡馆现象。
随着疫情的肆虐，许多咖啡馆被迫关门，很多人的毕生积蓄，在一眨眼之间就花光了。另一个类似的趋势是别致的餐馆、小糕点商店和手工艺品店。开办这些公司很容易，使用的资本也少得多，但由于每个人都认为从中赚钱很容易，所以很难找到真正出众的公司。对许多泰国人来说，这是一场走向沉沦的竞争。
The problem with Thai SMEs is really lack of innovation and the herd mentality is very strong in Thailand, so whatever is trendy at the time, people will rush to follow. For example, there are a lot of chic coffeeshops across the country because people think that Thais are obsessed with social media and they will go drink coffee and post their cool photos on Facebook or Instagram. Also, it's not hard like building a business system that actually solve problems, which is the basis of many successful startups. Thais are good social animal, but lazy at innovations. Hence, the coffeeshop phenomenon.
With the pandemic raging on, many of those coffeeshops are forced to close doors, and investment money, many of which life savings for a lot of people, gone in a blx of an eye.Another similar trends are chic restaurants, small pastry entrepreneurs and handcrafts. Those are easy to start and use much less capital, but since everyone thinks it's easy to make money from this so it's hard to find ones that truly stand out, and it's a race to the bottom for many Thais.
泰国中小企业的问题是缺乏创新，而且从众心理在泰国非常强烈，所以无论当时流行什么，人们都会争相跟风。例如，泰国各地有很多时髦的咖啡馆，因为人们认为泰国人痴迷于社交媒体，他们会去喝咖啡，然后把自己很酷的照片上传到脸书或Instagram上。而且，建立一个真正解决问题的商业系统并不难，这是许多成功创业的基础。泰国人是优秀的社会动物，但不善于创新。因此，出现了咖啡馆现象。
随着疫情的肆虐，许多咖啡馆被迫关门，很多人的毕生积蓄，在一眨眼之间就花光了。另一个类似的趋势是别致的餐馆、小糕点商店和手工艺品店。开办这些公司很容易，使用的资本也少得多，但由于每个人都认为从中赚钱很容易，所以很难找到真正出众的公司。对许多泰国人来说，这是一场走向沉沦的竞争。
Tudor Reece
I might be wrong but I think tourism has spoiled things for many Thai people.I lived in Koh Samui, so I saw how much the tourism industry and selling land to western developers could make huge money for the locals in Baht terms. But I knew some guys who were literally discouraging their kids from going to university because they felt they’d hit gold.
I know this is not really an analogous to Bangkok or Thai manufacturing, but it’s a mindset. It’s fast, easy money. Catering to what people want now rather than creating a new future.If young people were concerned less with Korean pop and more with business and tech it would be a great thing.
我可能是错的，但是我认为旅游业破坏了很多泰国人的生活。我住在苏梅岛，所以我看到了旅游业以及那些把土地卖给西方开发商的当地人赚了很多钱。但我认识一些人，他们毫不犹豫地劝阻他们的孩子不要上大学，因为他们觉得他们已经走上巅峰了。
我知道这与曼谷或泰国的制造业领域并不相似，但这是一种心态。这是赚快钱、容易钱的心态。迎合人们现在的需求，而不是创造一个新的未来。如果年轻人少关注一些韩国流行音乐，多关注商业和科技，那将是一件了不起的事情。
I might be wrong but I think tourism has spoiled things for many Thai people.I lived in Koh Samui, so I saw how much the tourism industry and selling land to western developers could make huge money for the locals in Baht terms. But I knew some guys who were literally discouraging their kids from going to university because they felt they’d hit gold.
I know this is not really an analogous to Bangkok or Thai manufacturing, but it’s a mindset. It’s fast, easy money. Catering to what people want now rather than creating a new future.If young people were concerned less with Korean pop and more with business and tech it would be a great thing.
我可能是错的，但是我认为旅游业破坏了很多泰国人的生活。我住在苏梅岛，所以我看到了旅游业以及那些把土地卖给西方开发商的当地人赚了很多钱。但我认识一些人，他们毫不犹豫地劝阻他们的孩子不要上大学，因为他们觉得他们已经走上巅峰了。
我知道这与曼谷或泰国的制造业领域并不相似，但这是一种心态。这是赚快钱、容易钱的心态。迎合人们现在的需求，而不是创造一个新的未来。如果年轻人少关注一些韩国流行音乐，多关注商业和科技，那将是一件了不起的事情。
Duy Inoue Le
yup thai get trap cause you guy lack your. own car , phone , electronic brand and ship building industry ( which korea;japan;china;taiwan have that why they manage to escape the midle income trap )
是的，泰国陷入了困境，因为你们没有自己的汽车、手机、电子品牌和造船工业。韩国、日本、中国大陆和台湾都有，这就是为什么他们成功逃脱了中等收入陷阱。
yup thai get trap cause you guy lack your. own car , phone , electronic brand and ship building industry ( which korea;japan;china;taiwan have that why they manage to escape the midle income trap )
是的，泰国陷入了困境，因为你们没有自己的汽车、手机、电子品牌和造船工业。韩国、日本、中国大陆和台湾都有，这就是为什么他们成功逃脱了中等收入陷阱。
Joey Vajrabukka
Doesn’t Thairung count as Thai car brand to you? Not that it would change your mind. Just FYI.
你不认为Thairung是泰国汽车品牌吗？这并不能改变你的想法，仅供参考。
Doesn’t Thairung count as Thai car brand to you? Not that it would change your mind. Just FYI.
你不认为Thairung是泰国汽车品牌吗？这并不能改变你的想法，仅供参考。
John Kay
Actually, Thailand does have its own car brand - it just doesn’t compete on the same level or have what people are looking for. I believe there’s also an EV company, although they look to be small scale at this point in time.
事实上，泰国确实有自己的汽车品牌，只是没有达到同一个竞争水平，也没有人们想要的产品。我相信还有一家电动汽车公司，尽管他们目前看起来规模很小。
Actually, Thailand does have its own car brand - it just doesn’t compete on the same level or have what people are looking for. I believe there’s also an EV company, although they look to be small scale at this point in time.
事实上，泰国确实有自己的汽车品牌，只是没有达到同一个竞争水平，也没有人们想要的产品。我相信还有一家电动汽车公司，尽管他们目前看起来规模很小。
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