QA问答：东南亚哪些国家的未来最黑暗？为什么？
What countries in Southeast Asia have the darkest future? Why?
译文简介
我感到奇怪的是，竟然没有人提到文莱。这个石油资源丰富的国家自存在以来就非常依赖石油。这是文莱的主要收入来源。截至2018年，文莱90%的出口是石油和天然气。
正文翻译
Danzel Samuel upxed August 18
I’m surprised that nobody has mentioned Brunei.The oil-rich country has been hugely dependant on oil ever since it’s existence. It is their main source of income. 90% of their exports are oil and gas as of 2018.
我感到奇怪的是，竟然没有人提到文莱。这个石油资源丰富的国家自存在以来就非常依赖石油。这是文莱的主要收入来源。截至2018年，文莱90%的出口是石油和天然气。
I’m surprised that nobody has mentioned Brunei.The oil-rich country has been hugely dependant on oil ever since it’s existence. It is their main source of income. 90% of their exports are oil and gas as of 2018.
我感到奇怪的是，竟然没有人提到文莱。这个石油资源丰富的国家自存在以来就非常依赖石油。这是文莱的主要收入来源。截至2018年，文莱90%的出口是石油和天然气。
图一：2018年文莱最大的出口产品及出口伙伴国份额
图二：2010年至2020年文莱国内生产总值（2020年为预测值）
It’s GDP annual growth is also not looking good. It’s fluctuating between recession and growth.
文莱的国内生产总值(GDP)年增长率看起来也不太好。它在衰退和增长之间波动。
文莱的国内生产总值(GDP)年增长率看起来也不太好。它在衰退和增长之间波动。
图三：文莱2017年至2020年各季度GDP增长率
Looking from this, a good way to counter this would be to diversify the economy, like what Saudi Arabia did to counter the oil crash. However, they increased their oil production, despite a global oversupply.“Production will be continued in Brunei and I’ve had a discussion with Brunei Shell Petroleum Co Sdn Bhd (BSP) on this matter as well, and this is the time when you really need to make sure that you always have a diversified portfolio of buyers, ” said the minister.
从这个角度来看，应对这一问题的一个好办法是实现经济多元化，就像沙特阿拉伯在应对石油危机时所做的那样。然而，尽管全球供应过剩，这些国家的石油产量仍增加了。文莱一个部长说:“文莱将继续生产，我也与文莱壳牌石油公司就这个问题进行了讨论，现在是真正需要确保拥有一个多样化的买家组合的时候了。”
从这个角度来看，应对这一问题的一个好办法是实现经济多元化，就像沙特阿拉伯在应对石油危机时所做的那样。然而，尽管全球供应过剩，这些国家的石油产量仍增加了。文莱一个部长说:“文莱将继续生产，我也与文莱壳牌石油公司就这个问题进行了讨论，现在是真正需要确保拥有一个多样化的买家组合的时候了。”
They actually had the opportunity to introduce tourism but sharia law killed any chance of tourists spending their dollars. It has also tarnished its public image.The decline has also affected it’s people. Youth unemployment is at 25%, the highest in ASEAN. Its unemployment rate is at 9.12%.
Unless Brunei diversifies their economy, it will continue to decline. It’s brightest will leave for greener pastures.
文莱实际上有机会引入旅游业，但伊斯兰教法扼杀了游客花钱的任何机会，这也损害了文莱的公众形象。人口的下降也影响到了文莱的人口。文莱的青年失业率高达25%，是东盟国家中最高的。总和失业率高达9.12%。除非文莱实现经济多元化，否则它将继续走下坡路。最光明的前途是离开这儿去寻找更绿的牧场。
Unless Brunei diversifies their economy, it will continue to decline. It’s brightest will leave for greener pastures.
文莱实际上有机会引入旅游业，但伊斯兰教法扼杀了游客花钱的任何机会，这也损害了文莱的公众形象。人口的下降也影响到了文莱的人口。文莱的青年失业率高达25%，是东盟国家中最高的。总和失业率高达9.12%。除非文莱实现经济多元化，否则它将继续走下坡路。最光明的前途是离开这儿去寻找更绿的牧场。
图四：东盟各国青年失业率
图五：文莱历年总和失业率
评论翻译
回复：
Richard Yang
Who will visit a boring super “religious” countries with so many NO-NO here and there?
谁会去一个到处都是禁忌的无聊的超级“宗教”国家呢？
Who will visit a boring super “religious” countries with so many NO-NO here and there?
谁会去一个到处都是禁忌的无聊的超级“宗教”国家呢？
Danzel Samuel
No one basically.
基本上没人会去。
No one basically.
基本上没人会去。
Zhafir Hisham
Saudi Arabia?
沙特阿拉伯？
Saudi Arabia?
沙特阿拉伯？
Vivianne Chin
i think they will probably sell to the US. Since USD still have much higher value than RMB, and probably more desperate to regain her control over SEA region.
我想他们可能会卖给美国。由于美元的价值仍然比人民币高得多，而且（美国）可能更渴望重新获得对海域的控制权。
i think they will probably sell to the US. Since USD still have much higher value than RMB, and probably more desperate to regain her control over SEA region.
我想他们可能会卖给美国。由于美元的价值仍然比人民币高得多，而且（美国）可能更渴望重新获得对海域的控制权。
Andrew Chang
Doesn't make sense, since most goods to maintain quality of life for their citizens will come from China anyway. Unless Bruneians want copious amounts of beef, barley and soybeans from the USA.
这是没有道理的，因为大多数维持国民生活水平的商品都将来自中国。除非文莱人想从美国进口大量的牛肉、大麦和大豆。
Doesn't make sense, since most goods to maintain quality of life for their citizens will come from China anyway. Unless Bruneians want copious amounts of beef, barley and soybeans from the USA.
这是没有道理的，因为大多数维持国民生活水平的商品都将来自中国。除非文莱人想从美国进口大量的牛肉、大麦和大豆。
Gokula Krishnan
Why would china stop selling goods if Brunei sell its port to US. China will sell it for money. Isn't china still having trade with US even after trump criticize them often.
如果文莱把港口卖给美国，中国为什么要停止卖商品（给文莱）呢？中国会卖掉商品来赚钱。即使特朗普经常批评中国，中国不是还和美国有贸易吗?
Why would china stop selling goods if Brunei sell its port to US. China will sell it for money. Isn't china still having trade with US even after trump criticize them often.
如果文莱把港口卖给美国，中国为什么要停止卖商品（给文莱）呢？中国会卖掉商品来赚钱。即使特朗普经常批评中国，中国不是还和美国有贸易吗?
Lukman Leong
why dont sell to UK? GBP is higher than usd, if that is how you see things
为什么不卖给英国？英镑（价值）高于美元，如果这是你的看法的话。
why dont sell to UK? GBP is higher than usd, if that is how you see things
为什么不卖给英国？英镑（价值）高于美元，如果这是你的看法的话。
John Lee
How long will Brunei’s oil last her and how can she survive then?
文莱的石油还能维持多久?那时她如何生存?
How long will Brunei’s oil last her and how can she survive then?
文莱的石油还能维持多久?那时她如何生存?
Gurnahar Singh
Maybe a few decades then they’ll end up in unrest.
也许再过几十年，他们就会陷入动乱。
Maybe a few decades then they’ll end up in unrest.
也许再过几十年，他们就会陷入动乱。
Han Shyone Ooi
Brunei is a small country. Just what can they diversify to?
文莱是一个小国。他们能多样化到什么程度呢?
Brunei is a small country. Just what can they diversify to?
文莱是一个小国。他们能多样化到什么程度呢?
Zhi Bu
If invest in high tech agriculture and aquaculture, they’ll have a promising future.
如果投资高科技农业和水产养殖，他们将有一个光明的未来。
If invest in high tech agriculture and aquaculture, they’ll have a promising future.
如果投资高科技农业和水产养殖，他们将有一个光明的未来。
Edrick Lawrence Ong
Exactly, Brunei’s small size and lack of farm land would’ve made it a perfect place to experiment and implement hydroponics on a mass scale, maybe to the point where they could’ve even become a food exporter, mass hydroponics farming is actually something Qatar, another small, oil rich country is doing, and so far it’s been a huge win for the Qatari people and Qatari government. Unfortunately, I doubt Brunei has any plans by the likes of this lined up.
没错，文莱的体积小，而且缺乏农田会使它成为一个大规模试验水培法的完美的地方，也许他们甚至可以成为一个粮食出口国，大规模的水培法农业实际上是卡塔尔的东西，这也是一个小的石油富国所做的，到目前为止，这对卡塔尔人和卡塔尔政府是一个巨大的胜利。不幸的是，我怀疑文莱是否有这样的计划。
Exactly, Brunei’s small size and lack of farm land would’ve made it a perfect place to experiment and implement hydroponics on a mass scale, maybe to the point where they could’ve even become a food exporter, mass hydroponics farming is actually something Qatar, another small, oil rich country is doing, and so far it’s been a huge win for the Qatari people and Qatari government. Unfortunately, I doubt Brunei has any plans by the likes of this lined up.
没错，文莱的体积小，而且缺乏农田会使它成为一个大规模试验水培法的完美的地方，也许他们甚至可以成为一个粮食出口国，大规模的水培法农业实际上是卡塔尔的东西，这也是一个小的石油富国所做的，到目前为止，这对卡塔尔人和卡塔尔政府是一个巨大的胜利。不幸的是，我怀疑文莱是否有这样的计划。
Charles Lee
You are right…..Brunei would be a great tourist destination. It has beautiful mosques, beaches, museums, rainforests coral reefs, and great food. It also have a lot of history and culture. The people in the country are very nice and hospitable. Sharia law was suspended and should not be a burden. Royal Brunei Airlines is amazing and even its economy seats are wide like business class seats.
你是对的……文莱会是一个很好的旅游目的地。文莱有美丽的清真寺、海滩、博物馆、热带雨林、珊瑚礁和美味的食物。它也有很丰富的历史和文化。这个国家的人很和蔼、热情好客。伊斯兰教法已经被搁置，不应该成为一种烦恼。文莱皇家航空公司很让人惊讶，甚至它的经济座位像商务舱的座位那么宽。
You are right…..Brunei would be a great tourist destination. It has beautiful mosques, beaches, museums, rainforests coral reefs, and great food. It also have a lot of history and culture. The people in the country are very nice and hospitable. Sharia law was suspended and should not be a burden. Royal Brunei Airlines is amazing and even its economy seats are wide like business class seats.
你是对的……文莱会是一个很好的旅游目的地。文莱有美丽的清真寺、海滩、博物馆、热带雨林、珊瑚礁和美味的食物。它也有很丰富的历史和文化。这个国家的人很和蔼、热情好客。伊斯兰教法已经被搁置，不应该成为一种烦恼。文莱皇家航空公司很让人惊讶，甚至它的经济座位像商务舱的座位那么宽。
Aaron Samuel
Like all monarchies it’s populous will suffer while the sultan enjoys life.
像所有的君主国一样，苏丹享受生活的时候，它的人民将会受到影响。
Like all monarchies it’s populous will suffer while the sultan enjoys life.
像所有的君主国一样，苏丹享受生活的时候，它的人民将会受到影响。
Chen Ken
The countries with highest unemployment rate, Is it because of the religion that women usually being housewifves？
在失业率很高的那些国家，是不是因为宗教信仰以至于妇女通常作为家庭主妇？
The countries with highest unemployment rate, Is it because of the religion that women usually being housewifves？
在失业率很高的那些国家，是不是因为宗教信仰以至于妇女通常作为家庭主妇？
Gokula Krishnan
There are lot of countries in Asia where woman don't work and stay housewife. 25% is still high though.
在亚洲的许多国家，妇女不工作，做家庭主妇。不过，25%的（青年失业率）比例仍然很高。
There are lot of countries in Asia where woman don't work and stay housewife. 25% is still high though.
在亚洲的许多国家，妇女不工作，做家庭主妇。不过，25%的（青年失业率）比例仍然很高。
Ferry Marshall
Well, when everything MUST close around 18:00 , kinda hard to invite tourist to the country eh?
好吧，当（一个国家）一切都要在18：00关门的时候，就很难吸引到游客到这个国家了吧？
Well, when everything MUST close around 18:00 , kinda hard to invite tourist to the country eh?
好吧，当（一个国家）一切都要在18：00关门的时候，就很难吸引到游客到这个国家了吧？
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