瑞典是对的，经济应该保持开放
Sweden Is Right. The Economy Should be Left Open
译文简介
有时候，最好的应对方式，就是什么都不做。以瑞典为例，该国政府决定不关停经济，而是采取了一个更深思熟虑和均衡的方法。
正文翻译
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译：无熊猫氏 转载请注明出处
Sweden Is Right. The Economy Should be Left Open
瑞典是对的，经济应该保持开放。
Sometimes, the best thing to do, is to do nothing at all. Take Sweden, for example, where the government decided not to shut down the economy, but to take a more thoughtful and balanced approach. Sweden has kept its primary schools, restaurants, shops and gyms open for business even though fewer people are out in public or carrying on as they normally would. At the same time, the government has kept the Swedish people well-informed so they understand the risks the virus poses to their health and the health of others. This is how the Swedes have minimized their chances of getting the infection while avoiding more extreme measures like shelter-in-place which is de facto house arrest.
有时候，最好的应对方式，就是什么都不做。以瑞典为例，该国政府决定不关停经济，而是采取了一个更深思熟虑和均衡的方法。瑞典的小学，餐馆，商店和体育馆都照常营业，尽管越来越少的人会出门或者像他们平常那样生活。与此同时，瑞典政府让瑞典人充分了解病毒的危害，所以他们明白该病毒对他们以及其他人的健康构成的风险。这就是瑞典人如何尽量减少他们感染的机会，同时避免采取更激进的措施，比如就地临时避难，这实际上是软禁。
What the Swedish experiment demonstrates, is that there’s a way to navigate these unprecedented public health challenges without recklessly imposing police state policies and without doing irreparable harm to the economy. And, yes, the results of this experiment are not yet known, but what we do know is that most nations cannot simply print-up trillions of dollars to counter the knock-on effects of bringing the economy to a screeching halt. These countries must dip into their reserves or take out loans from the IMF in order to recover from the lack of production and activity. That means they’re going to face years of slow growth and high unemployment to dig out from the mess their leaders created for them.
瑞典的试验表明，有一种方法可以驾驭这些前所未见的公共卫生挑战，没有鲁莽的强加警察国家政策，也没有对经济造成不能挽回的伤害。是的，这个试验的结果目前还不为人所知，但是我们确实知道的是，大部分国家没办法简单的印出数万亿美元，来抵消经济急刹车带来的连锁反应。为了恢复缺失的生产和活动，这些国家必须动用他们的储备或者从国际货币基金组织获得贷款。这意味着为了摆脱他们的领导人给他们制造的混乱，他们将面临数年的低增长和高失业情况。
（译注：原文有点长，翻这两段意思一下，大意就是这样，认为欧美国家的也不见得比瑞典的好，瑞典的虽然未必有那么好，但是好像也没那么差，而且他们保住了自由!！）
Sweden Is Right. The Economy Should be Left Open
瑞典是对的，经济应该保持开放。
Sometimes, the best thing to do, is to do nothing at all. Take Sweden, for example, where the government decided not to shut down the economy, but to take a more thoughtful and balanced approach. Sweden has kept its primary schools, restaurants, shops and gyms open for business even though fewer people are out in public or carrying on as they normally would. At the same time, the government has kept the Swedish people well-informed so they understand the risks the virus poses to their health and the health of others. This is how the Swedes have minimized their chances of getting the infection while avoiding more extreme measures like shelter-in-place which is de facto house arrest.
有时候，最好的应对方式，就是什么都不做。以瑞典为例，该国政府决定不关停经济，而是采取了一个更深思熟虑和均衡的方法。瑞典的小学，餐馆，商店和体育馆都照常营业，尽管越来越少的人会出门或者像他们平常那样生活。与此同时，瑞典政府让瑞典人充分了解病毒的危害，所以他们明白该病毒对他们以及其他人的健康构成的风险。这就是瑞典人如何尽量减少他们感染的机会，同时避免采取更激进的措施，比如就地临时避难，这实际上是软禁。
What the Swedish experiment demonstrates, is that there’s a way to navigate these unprecedented public health challenges without recklessly imposing police state policies and without doing irreparable harm to the economy. And, yes, the results of this experiment are not yet known, but what we do know is that most nations cannot simply print-up trillions of dollars to counter the knock-on effects of bringing the economy to a screeching halt. These countries must dip into their reserves or take out loans from the IMF in order to recover from the lack of production and activity. That means they’re going to face years of slow growth and high unemployment to dig out from the mess their leaders created for them.
瑞典的试验表明，有一种方法可以驾驭这些前所未见的公共卫生挑战，没有鲁莽的强加警察国家政策，也没有对经济造成不能挽回的伤害。是的，这个试验的结果目前还不为人所知，但是我们确实知道的是，大部分国家没办法简单的印出数万亿美元，来抵消经济急刹车带来的连锁反应。为了恢复缺失的生产和活动，这些国家必须动用他们的储备或者从国际货币基金组织获得贷款。这意味着为了摆脱他们的领导人给他们制造的混乱，他们将面临数年的低增长和高失业情况。
（译注：原文有点长，翻这两段意思一下，大意就是这样，认为欧美国家的也不见得比瑞典的好，瑞典的虽然未必有那么好，但是好像也没那么差，而且他们保住了自由!！）
评论翻译
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译：无熊猫氏 转载请注明出处
Rubaiyat
“The economy IS our life. ”
Anglos are sick in the head.
“经济是我们的生命。”
盎格鲁人都疯掉了。
Robert dolan
MORON.
The economy and work IS our lives!
People who live paycheck to paycheck miss one check and they can’t pay their rent or feed their kids.
The wealthy can afford the shutdown; the poor CANNOT.
MILLIONS out of work means despair, alcohol, substance abuse, depression, violence, suicide, looting, rioting, starvation.
白痴。
经济和工作就是我们的生命！
那些月光族错过一张支票，他们就没法支付他们的房租或者喂养他们的孩子。
有钱人可以承受经济关停，穷人却不行。
数百万人失业意味着绝望，酗酒，嗑药，抑郁，暴力，自杀，抢劫，暴乱，饥饿。
Jbwilson24
“Mike Whitney is showing his white bias and white privilege.”
WTF?
Sweden is hardly white anymore, and whites are definitely not privileged within it. What planet do you live on?
“迈克·怀特尼在表现他的白人偏见和白人特权。”
你到底在说什么？
瑞典几乎不是白人的天下了，白人在这里绝对没有特权。你是哪个星球的？
Davidgmillsatty
Comparing countries is problematical to say the least. Sweden is very cold. The virus does not do well in very cold temps or very hot temps. Let’s see what happens to Sweden once it warms up a bit. Virtually every country that resisted lock downs ultimately gave in when their health care service got overwhelmed. Today I notice their new cases are up by 10%.
退一步说，这几个对照国家是有问题的。瑞典非常寒冷。这种病毒在很冷或者很热的地方都不活跃。等瑞典暖和一点了，我们再看看会发生什么。实际上每个抵制封锁的国家，在他们的医疗服务不堪重负时，最终都屈服了。今天我注意到他们的新增病例增加了10% （译注：4月18日,下同）
Digital samizdat
‘With a population of 5.8 million, Denmark’s death-toll is currently 336, while Sweden’s is 1,400 for a population of 10.2 million.’
If you do the math, this means that Denmark has an overall COVID-19 death rate of 0.006% of the population, while Sweden’s would be 0.01%. Sure, there’s a difference. But the effective death rates are so incredibly tiny in both cases that it hardly makes sense to quibble over the Swedish approach from a public health perspective. If it helps Sweden stave off economic collapse and build herd immunity, then I say theirs is the best approach.
Trump, are listening?
丹麦580万人口，死亡人数336，而瑞典1020万人口，死亡人数1400.’
如果你计算一下，这意味着丹麦的总死亡率是0.006%，而瑞典是0.01%。确实，两者是有区别的。但是这俩个例子里的实际死亡率都是少的难以置信。从公共卫生角度来看，对瑞典的方法苛责几乎没有意义。如果它能帮助瑞典避免经济崩溃并且建立群体免疫，那么我会说他们的方法是最好的方法。
特朗普，你在听吗？
Levtraro
Sweden and Norway, having similar demographics, geographic location, population density and size, and data collection systems, while having sharply contrasting policies for control of the SARS-CoV-2 spread, are indeed an interesting comparison. Norway imposed severe restrictions on mobility, gatherings, schooling, while Sweden has remained mostly open.
Norway had an exponential growth of infected until the maximum 0f 399 in March 27 (severe restrictions started 15 days earlier). After that the number of infected has been decreasing linearly until the latest date in the database (yesterday), reaching just 32. Norwegian authorities claim that they have the epidemic under control and will start relaxing restrictions. Overall fatality rate in this period: 2.3%
Sweden on the other hand has been on a stable exponential growth of the new infected from Feb. 29 to yesterday, having 676 new infected in the latest date. Overall fatality rate: 10.9%.
Will Swedish authorities allow the continued exponential growth of the newly infected until it tapers off naturally, or don’t.
瑞典和挪威，有着相似的人口统计特征，地理位置，人口密度和规模，以及数据收集系统，而俩国在控制病毒传播方面采取了对比鲜明的政策，这确实是个有趣的比较。挪威对流动性，集会，学校实施了严格的限制，而瑞典大部分保持开放。
到3月27日（开启严格措施15天之后）最多新增399例之前，挪威经历了一个指数级的增长。在此之后，感染数直线下降，直到最近（昨天），只有32例。挪威当局声称他们已经控制了传染，并且将开始放松限制。在此期间的总致死率是2.3%。
另一方面，瑞典从2月29号到昨天新增676例病例为止，一直处于一个稳定的指数级增长当中。总致死率是10.9%。
瑞典当局会允许新增病例继续指数级增长，直到它自然缩小，还是不会？
Felix keverich
COVID is just like climate change…in the sense that trying to fix it by gutting the economy will do more damage, than the disease itself.
新冠病毒就像气候变化....就这种意义而言，试图通过摧毁经济来修复它，会比病毒本身造成更大的伤害。
Robert dolan
Compare Sweden to NYC, same population size.
NYC shutdown, Sweden didn’t.
Rounding numbers for the sake of argument, NYC has over 10K dead, but Sweden has a bit over
1K dead.
Roughly, NYC has ten times the number of dead.
Sweden has one tenth the number of dead and still has a functioning economy.
You can’t tell me it’s because “Sweden is cold.”
It’s because Sweden was RIGHT.
比较瑞典和纽约市，同样的人口规模。纽约关停，瑞典没有。
为了便于讨论，数字取个整，纽约市超过10000人死亡，而瑞典只比1000多一点。
大致上，纽约市死亡人数是瑞典的十倍。
瑞典的死亡人数是纽约的十分之一，而且它的经济仍然在运行当作。
你不能告诉我说这只是因为“瑞典是寒冷的。”
这是因为瑞典是正确的。
Peter akuleyev
Sweden’s economy has crashed anyway. Yes, movie theaters are open but attendance is down 90%. No one is going to restaurants, people are not going shopping. Swedes aren’t stupid, for the most part, and can be trusted to observe social distancing without as much government intervention. But Sweden shows there is really no “leave the economy open” option when people refuse to participate because of a raging epidemic.
Even so, Sweden’s death rate is horrendous compared to Austria and Germany. Austria clamped down hard and fast, and we are now already starting to ease up.
总之，瑞典的经济已经崩溃了。是的，电影院是开放的，但是上座率已经降低了90%。没人去餐馆，也没人去购物。在很大程度上，瑞典人不是傻瓜，没有政府过多的干预之下，在遵守社交疏远方面，他们也是可以信赖的。但是瑞典的情况表明，当人们拒绝参与一场肆虐的流行病时，实际上并不存在一个“让经济保持开放”的选项。
即使如此，瑞典的死亡率跟奥地利和德国相比也是惊人的。奥地利坚决的遏制了病毒，现在我们已经开始缓和下来了。
Monty ahwazi
Confirmed deaths from COVID19 is 140 per million people in Sweden and in the US is 117 per million people! So there’s no correct or smarter plan or strategy for managing this pandemic anywhere yet! May be in couple of years the world will learn from this pandemic how to manage the next one! Hopefully we won’t put our experiences and learnings from this pandemic on a shelf and forget about them. But I do bet that we will forget about the whole thing!
在瑞典，确诊的死亡人数是每百万人140个，美国是每百万人117个！所以现在并没有正确的或者是更机智的计划或者策略来管理这个大流行病！也许几年后，世界会从这个大流行病理学会如何管理下一个！希望我们不会把这次学到的经验和知识丢到架子上，从而忘记它们。但是我打赌我们会忘记这整件事情！
Anonymous[661]
I wouldn’t be surprised if they were planning on forcing everyone in America to sign a loyalty oath to Israel as a condition to being allowed out of lockdown.
如果他们计划强迫每个美国人签一份对以色列的效忠誓言，作为允许解除封锁的条件，我不会觉得奇怪。
Anon[191]
Very few people go to church in Sweden, more go to the mosque.
瑞典很少有人去教堂，更多的是去清真寺。
Refl
As I see corona as a new stage in the hybrid war to make Europe terminally ungovernable, after the financial crisis and the refugee crisis (with numerous smaller events in between), here you have one of the major tasks that have been achieved already:
Germany still has maintained a high level of social security, which the empire allowed us to develop to counter the socialist challenge in the East.
The original, positive plan of the EU was to extend this policy to Europe.
With the corona madness Germany and the EU have finally overextended their means. Not that it would be very much of a regret at this point any longer, but it is definitely a historic turning point for the worse.
And now everyone back to the numbers game. Avoid seeing the bigger picture, for you might not be able to bear it.
就我所看到的，在金融危机和难民危机之后（其中有一些小的事件），新冠病毒成为了一场混合战争的新阶段，该战争使得欧洲最终变得难以治理。这里你已经完成了一项主要任务：
德国仍然保持了一个高水平的社会安全，帝国允许我们发展它来对抗来自东部社会主义的挑战。原本，这个欧盟的积极计划打算扩展到整个欧洲。
随着新冠的疯狂传播，德国和欧盟终于透支了他们的手段。在这一点上，并不是说现在不再遗憾，但是它绝对是转向更糟糕情况的历史性转折点。
现在每个人都回到了数字游戏。避免看到更大的景象，因为你可能无法承受它。
The thin man
Sweden is a mess—Whitney is generally good on economic issues, albeit over the top hysterical on some occasions. But this is simply ideology overcoming science. Sweden’s approach has been a clear failure.
瑞典现在一团糟—怀特尼通常比较擅长经济问题，尽管在某些场合有些过分地歇斯底里。但是这篇文章不过是意识形态战胜了科学。
瑞典的方法明显是失败的。
Gotmituns
The only reason the NYC hospitals are “overwhelmed” is because of the large number of Hispanics and blacks in the city. Two notoriously unhealthy groups. I don’t think the orientals are that healthy either.
纽约市医院“不堪重负”的唯一原因是因为城里大量的拉美裔和黑人。俩个众所周知的不健康群体。我认为东方人也是不健康的。
Vojkan
Even if Sweden ends up having a greater number per capita of deaths from COVID-19, the true tally will be when deaths due to giving absolute priority to treating COVID-19 over other diseases and lockdown related deaths are counted. I think what governments enforcing lockdowns are doing can pretty much be summed up as “burning down the village in order to save it”.
Call me a conspiracy nut but I can’t help but surmise that there are ulterior motives to all this.
即使瑞典最终因为新冠的人均死亡数目是一个很大的数字，那是因为真实的统计数字把其他死亡也包括在内了，比如因为治疗新冠的优先级更高而导致的其他疾病得不到救治而死亡的人，以及因为隔离措施而导致的死亡。我认为政府强迫封锁所做的一切可以概括为“为了挽救村子而把村子烧了”。
你们可以叫我阴谋论者，因为我禁不住猜测所有这些都是别有用心的。
Mr.T
Swedish model looks like it will be an utter failure , as rest of Europe is slowly preparing gradual reopening Sweden only now looking at lockdowns as body count is starting to pileup ,end result will be longer lockdown and all neighoring countries implementing border closing with Sweden till they get a grip on situation. Economic fallout will be at least as big but likely bigger than rest of EU
Comparing NY mortality to Sweden is not relevant , Sweden is sparsely populated while NY is metropolis , hence for much of Sweden business as usual automatically results in social distancing equal or better than shelter at home can enact in NY or any other megacity.
Swedens policy is not some bright star idea its just a resoult of goverments detached from reality for past decade or two， preocupied with gender and identity politics and in utter denial of reality .
瑞典的模式看起来将会是个彻底的失败，因为欧洲其他国家正在缓慢准备逐步重启它们的经济，而瑞典现在才开始考虑封锁，因为死亡人数开始越积越多，最终的结果将是瑞典必须封锁的更久，而且所有跟瑞典相邻的国家将会贯彻对瑞典的边境封锁，直到瑞典控制了局势。经济影响不会比欧盟其他国家小，很可能更大。
拿纽约的死亡率跟瑞典相比是不恰当的，瑞典人口密度低，而纽约是大都市，因此，对大部分瑞典地区来说，照常营业会自动产生社会距离，它跟纽约或者其他任何大都市的居家避难效果相当，甚至更好。
瑞典的政策并不是什么让人眼前一亮的好点子，这只是过去一二十年间政府脱离现实的结果，它们专注于性别和身份政治，彻底否认现实。
Robert dolan
Sweden was right and the people obxting have to lie to make Sweden look bad. Sweden is no worse off than any of the surrounding countries.
You can add Arkansas, South Dakota, South Carolina, and a few other states that did not lockdown and are doing just fine.
How do you whiny little bitches explain that?
A shutdown is STUPID once the virus has already arrived. The time to lock the border is BEFORE the virus gets a foothold. Since that wasn’t done, it looks to me like they wanted the virus to spread. And you can’t tell me they didn’t know because many govt. officials sold their stocks knowing what was coming.
瑞典是对的，反对的人必须撒谎来让瑞典看起来很糟糕。
瑞典并不比周边的任何国家表现更差。
你还可以把阿肯色州，南达科塔州，南卡罗来纳州以及其他几个没有封锁但是做的不错的州算进来。
你这个爱发牢骚的小贱人怎么解释这个？
一旦病毒已经来临，封锁是愚蠢的。封锁边境的时间应该在病毒落脚之前。既然这没有发生，在我看来就好像他们想让病毒传播一样。而且你不能告诉我说他们也不知道，很多政府官员卖掉了他们的股票，因为他们知道将要发生什么。
Jaakko raipala
We are not doing any better than *Swedes*. The vast majority of dead in Sweden are migrants, especially Somalians, who don’t follow the advice and instead still gather in mosques and such. They also have high levels of obesity and poor health in general compared to ethnic Swedes.
Take out the non-Swedes from Swedish statistics and Sweden isn’t doing any worse than Denmark or Norway. Also note that the virus arrived later to Finland.
The median age of the dead here is 81. This virus only kills people who already have one foot in the grave. They were about to get knocked over by the next flu anyway so we aren’t saving anyone, just postponing their death – unless we make this lockdown permanent so that they’re protected from every flu epidemic but then modern society will collapse and they’ll die anyway as the nursing homes and hospitals won’t be around to extend lifespans.
我们并没有任何做的比‘瑞典人’更好的地方（译注：这里指的是瑞典白人）。瑞典的大部分死亡都是移民，特别是索马里人，他们没有听从建议，反而继续聚集在清真寺此类的地方。与瑞典民族相比，他们患肥胖症的更多，一般来说都不怎么健康。
把这些非瑞典人从瑞典的统计数字里移除，那么瑞典做的不比丹麦或者挪威差。还有要注意的是病毒抵达芬兰的时间要更晚。
死亡的中位数年龄是81岁。这个病毒只会杀死那些已经一只脚踏进了坟墓的人。无论如何，他们本来就要被下一次流感击倒。所以我们不是在挽救任何人，只是延迟他们的死亡——除非我们将这个封锁措施永久化，这样他们就可以免受每一次流感的伤害，但是这样的话现代社会就崩溃了。而且他们无论如何都是要死的，因为养老院和医院无法延长生命。（译注：没有查到索马里人死亡占比的具体数据，大部分文章里引用的都是斯德哥尔摩最早的15例死亡里面有6个是索马里人这个事情。）
Brás Cubas
‘Isso e uma das pocas coisas que me dao esperanca nestos tempos de imbecilidade: No peor o meu pais de primero mundo vai acabar como um Brazil mais frio, com gente que nao sabem o que quer dizer a palavra “jeito”.’
Your fears (or hopes) may be warranted. What they’re doing to the Economy in the first world will have consequences. I used to think that rebuilding economies was easy, based on the examples of pos-WWII Germany and Japan. But I don’t know if that experiment may be replicated today, especially since we don’t know if there will be an equivalent of 1945 U.S.A. to lend a hand.
你的担心（或者希望）也许是有道理的。他们对第一世界的经济的行动是会产生后果的。基于二战后德国和日本的例子，我过去认为重建经济很容易。不过我不知道今天是否还可以复制这个试验，特别是因为我们不知道是否还有和1945年的美国类似的国家伸出援手。（译注：他回复的上面那段评论不是英语，只翻了他这一段）
Hegar
I live in Sweden. While New York has definitely failed, it isn’t true that Sweden has no quarantine.
Now, there is no law allowing the government to do a shutdown, but plenty of stores are closed everywhere. Stockholm has 60% fewer commuters. The Stockholm roads are so empty in the middle of the day that you can ride a bike in the car lane. There are still cars, but nowhere near what there used to be.
At a coffee shop that remains open, there were only seven visitors yesterday before me and my friend went there. They now close early, at six.
Several of my relatives work in offices that are down to 40 percent work hours. Grocery stores have plastic screens in front of the cashiers, and tape on the floor to show the distance between people standing in line.
Sports, clubs, etc are closed. College students have classes over the internet. My girlfriend works from home now, as do I. You see the effects everywhere.
The schools are open, though – which I think is bad, as that’s where disease usually spreads. And the stores choose on their own whether to be closed or not. (But whether they will get customers is another matter.)
The old don’t get visits from “home services,” but instead have food delivered to outside the door. And people opt out of what they can be without.
You could say it’s a “mixed shutdown”. Which may be better than a full shutdown, and better than no shutdown. It’s people using their own judgment.
And of course, Somalis and other usual suspects have more corona cases, just like “Turks” (Kurds) in Belgium rack up more corona cases, as they live with tons of children in each apartment and they don’t care about any rules. So … not all bad.
Alt right moderate
The country with the best strategy of all is Hungary. Rather than aggressively crack down on the productive parts of the economy, or engage in mass crackdowns on the general population, the Hungarians have cracked down on the travelers who are spreading the disease.
Many western countries told returning travelers and foreign immigrants to “self isolate” rather than put them into enforced quarantine, which is why the virus has been able to spread so quickly.
In the long run this fiasco is likely to be a win for nationalists, but the economic price for many countries is going to be heavy.
The countries which are going to suffer the most are those with a heavy focus on tourism and hospitality, which means countries like Spain, Greece, New Zealand and Thailand.
Industrial countries like Germany, Sweden, China and South Korea won’t be too badly affected.
拥有最佳策略的国家是匈牙利。匈牙利没有积极的打击经济的生产部门，也没有大规模的封锁普遍民众，匈牙利人打击了传播病毒的旅行者。
很多西方国家告诉归国旅客和外来移民“自我隔离”，而不是把他们强制隔离，这就是为什么病毒能如此快速传播的原因。
从长远来看，这次惨败可能对国家主义是一场胜利，但是对很多国家来说，经济代价是非常沉重的。
受影响最严重的国家是那些高度重视旅游业和好客的国家，比如西班牙，希腊，新西兰和泰国。
而德国，瑞典，中国和韩国这样的工业国家影响不会太大。
Rubaiyat
“The economy IS our life. ”
Anglos are sick in the head.
“经济是我们的生命。”
盎格鲁人都疯掉了。
Robert dolan
MORON.
The economy and work IS our lives!
People who live paycheck to paycheck miss one check and they can’t pay their rent or feed their kids.
The wealthy can afford the shutdown; the poor CANNOT.
MILLIONS out of work means despair, alcohol, substance abuse, depression, violence, suicide, looting, rioting, starvation.
白痴。
经济和工作就是我们的生命！
那些月光族错过一张支票，他们就没法支付他们的房租或者喂养他们的孩子。
有钱人可以承受经济关停，穷人却不行。
数百万人失业意味着绝望，酗酒，嗑药，抑郁，暴力，自杀，抢劫，暴乱，饥饿。
Jbwilson24
“Mike Whitney is showing his white bias and white privilege.”
WTF?
Sweden is hardly white anymore, and whites are definitely not privileged within it. What planet do you live on?
“迈克·怀特尼在表现他的白人偏见和白人特权。”
你到底在说什么？
瑞典几乎不是白人的天下了，白人在这里绝对没有特权。你是哪个星球的？
Davidgmillsatty
Comparing countries is problematical to say the least. Sweden is very cold. The virus does not do well in very cold temps or very hot temps. Let’s see what happens to Sweden once it warms up a bit. Virtually every country that resisted lock downs ultimately gave in when their health care service got overwhelmed. Today I notice their new cases are up by 10%.
退一步说，这几个对照国家是有问题的。瑞典非常寒冷。这种病毒在很冷或者很热的地方都不活跃。等瑞典暖和一点了，我们再看看会发生什么。实际上每个抵制封锁的国家，在他们的医疗服务不堪重负时，最终都屈服了。今天我注意到他们的新增病例增加了10% （译注：4月18日,下同）
Digital samizdat
‘With a population of 5.8 million, Denmark’s death-toll is currently 336, while Sweden’s is 1,400 for a population of 10.2 million.’
If you do the math, this means that Denmark has an overall COVID-19 death rate of 0.006% of the population, while Sweden’s would be 0.01%. Sure, there’s a difference. But the effective death rates are so incredibly tiny in both cases that it hardly makes sense to quibble over the Swedish approach from a public health perspective. If it helps Sweden stave off economic collapse and build herd immunity, then I say theirs is the best approach.
Trump, are listening?
丹麦580万人口，死亡人数336，而瑞典1020万人口，死亡人数1400.’
如果你计算一下，这意味着丹麦的总死亡率是0.006%，而瑞典是0.01%。确实，两者是有区别的。但是这俩个例子里的实际死亡率都是少的难以置信。从公共卫生角度来看，对瑞典的方法苛责几乎没有意义。如果它能帮助瑞典避免经济崩溃并且建立群体免疫，那么我会说他们的方法是最好的方法。
特朗普，你在听吗？
Levtraro
Sweden and Norway, having similar demographics, geographic location, population density and size, and data collection systems, while having sharply contrasting policies for control of the SARS-CoV-2 spread, are indeed an interesting comparison. Norway imposed severe restrictions on mobility, gatherings, schooling, while Sweden has remained mostly open.
Norway had an exponential growth of infected until the maximum 0f 399 in March 27 (severe restrictions started 15 days earlier). After that the number of infected has been decreasing linearly until the latest date in the database (yesterday), reaching just 32. Norwegian authorities claim that they have the epidemic under control and will start relaxing restrictions. Overall fatality rate in this period: 2.3%
Sweden on the other hand has been on a stable exponential growth of the new infected from Feb. 29 to yesterday, having 676 new infected in the latest date. Overall fatality rate: 10.9%.
Will Swedish authorities allow the continued exponential growth of the newly infected until it tapers off naturally, or don’t.
瑞典和挪威，有着相似的人口统计特征，地理位置，人口密度和规模，以及数据收集系统，而俩国在控制病毒传播方面采取了对比鲜明的政策，这确实是个有趣的比较。挪威对流动性，集会，学校实施了严格的限制，而瑞典大部分保持开放。
到3月27日（开启严格措施15天之后）最多新增399例之前，挪威经历了一个指数级的增长。在此之后，感染数直线下降，直到最近（昨天），只有32例。挪威当局声称他们已经控制了传染，并且将开始放松限制。在此期间的总致死率是2.3%。
另一方面，瑞典从2月29号到昨天新增676例病例为止，一直处于一个稳定的指数级增长当中。总致死率是10.9%。
瑞典当局会允许新增病例继续指数级增长，直到它自然缩小，还是不会？
Felix keverich
COVID is just like climate change…in the sense that trying to fix it by gutting the economy will do more damage, than the disease itself.
新冠病毒就像气候变化....就这种意义而言，试图通过摧毁经济来修复它，会比病毒本身造成更大的伤害。
Robert dolan
Compare Sweden to NYC, same population size.
NYC shutdown, Sweden didn’t.
Rounding numbers for the sake of argument, NYC has over 10K dead, but Sweden has a bit over
1K dead.
Roughly, NYC has ten times the number of dead.
Sweden has one tenth the number of dead and still has a functioning economy.
You can’t tell me it’s because “Sweden is cold.”
It’s because Sweden was RIGHT.
比较瑞典和纽约市，同样的人口规模。纽约关停，瑞典没有。
为了便于讨论，数字取个整，纽约市超过10000人死亡，而瑞典只比1000多一点。
大致上，纽约市死亡人数是瑞典的十倍。
瑞典的死亡人数是纽约的十分之一，而且它的经济仍然在运行当作。
你不能告诉我说这只是因为“瑞典是寒冷的。”
这是因为瑞典是正确的。
Peter akuleyev
Sweden’s economy has crashed anyway. Yes, movie theaters are open but attendance is down 90%. No one is going to restaurants, people are not going shopping. Swedes aren’t stupid, for the most part, and can be trusted to observe social distancing without as much government intervention. But Sweden shows there is really no “leave the economy open” option when people refuse to participate because of a raging epidemic.
Even so, Sweden’s death rate is horrendous compared to Austria and Germany. Austria clamped down hard and fast, and we are now already starting to ease up.
总之，瑞典的经济已经崩溃了。是的，电影院是开放的，但是上座率已经降低了90%。没人去餐馆，也没人去购物。在很大程度上，瑞典人不是傻瓜，没有政府过多的干预之下，在遵守社交疏远方面，他们也是可以信赖的。但是瑞典的情况表明，当人们拒绝参与一场肆虐的流行病时，实际上并不存在一个“让经济保持开放”的选项。
即使如此，瑞典的死亡率跟奥地利和德国相比也是惊人的。奥地利坚决的遏制了病毒，现在我们已经开始缓和下来了。
Monty ahwazi
Confirmed deaths from COVID19 is 140 per million people in Sweden and in the US is 117 per million people! So there’s no correct or smarter plan or strategy for managing this pandemic anywhere yet! May be in couple of years the world will learn from this pandemic how to manage the next one! Hopefully we won’t put our experiences and learnings from this pandemic on a shelf and forget about them. But I do bet that we will forget about the whole thing!
在瑞典，确诊的死亡人数是每百万人140个，美国是每百万人117个！所以现在并没有正确的或者是更机智的计划或者策略来管理这个大流行病！也许几年后，世界会从这个大流行病理学会如何管理下一个！希望我们不会把这次学到的经验和知识丢到架子上，从而忘记它们。但是我打赌我们会忘记这整件事情！
Anonymous[661]
I wouldn’t be surprised if they were planning on forcing everyone in America to sign a loyalty oath to Israel as a condition to being allowed out of lockdown.
如果他们计划强迫每个美国人签一份对以色列的效忠誓言，作为允许解除封锁的条件，我不会觉得奇怪。
Anon[191]
Very few people go to church in Sweden, more go to the mosque.
瑞典很少有人去教堂，更多的是去清真寺。
Refl
As I see corona as a new stage in the hybrid war to make Europe terminally ungovernable, after the financial crisis and the refugee crisis (with numerous smaller events in between), here you have one of the major tasks that have been achieved already:
Germany still has maintained a high level of social security, which the empire allowed us to develop to counter the socialist challenge in the East.
The original, positive plan of the EU was to extend this policy to Europe.
With the corona madness Germany and the EU have finally overextended their means. Not that it would be very much of a regret at this point any longer, but it is definitely a historic turning point for the worse.
And now everyone back to the numbers game. Avoid seeing the bigger picture, for you might not be able to bear it.
就我所看到的，在金融危机和难民危机之后（其中有一些小的事件），新冠病毒成为了一场混合战争的新阶段，该战争使得欧洲最终变得难以治理。这里你已经完成了一项主要任务：
德国仍然保持了一个高水平的社会安全，帝国允许我们发展它来对抗来自东部社会主义的挑战。原本，这个欧盟的积极计划打算扩展到整个欧洲。
随着新冠的疯狂传播，德国和欧盟终于透支了他们的手段。在这一点上，并不是说现在不再遗憾，但是它绝对是转向更糟糕情况的历史性转折点。
现在每个人都回到了数字游戏。避免看到更大的景象，因为你可能无法承受它。
The thin man
Sweden is a mess—Whitney is generally good on economic issues, albeit over the top hysterical on some occasions. But this is simply ideology overcoming science. Sweden’s approach has been a clear failure.
瑞典现在一团糟—怀特尼通常比较擅长经济问题，尽管在某些场合有些过分地歇斯底里。但是这篇文章不过是意识形态战胜了科学。
瑞典的方法明显是失败的。
Gotmituns
The only reason the NYC hospitals are “overwhelmed” is because of the large number of Hispanics and blacks in the city. Two notoriously unhealthy groups. I don’t think the orientals are that healthy either.
纽约市医院“不堪重负”的唯一原因是因为城里大量的拉美裔和黑人。俩个众所周知的不健康群体。我认为东方人也是不健康的。
Vojkan
Even if Sweden ends up having a greater number per capita of deaths from COVID-19, the true tally will be when deaths due to giving absolute priority to treating COVID-19 over other diseases and lockdown related deaths are counted. I think what governments enforcing lockdowns are doing can pretty much be summed up as “burning down the village in order to save it”.
Call me a conspiracy nut but I can’t help but surmise that there are ulterior motives to all this.
即使瑞典最终因为新冠的人均死亡数目是一个很大的数字，那是因为真实的统计数字把其他死亡也包括在内了，比如因为治疗新冠的优先级更高而导致的其他疾病得不到救治而死亡的人，以及因为隔离措施而导致的死亡。我认为政府强迫封锁所做的一切可以概括为“为了挽救村子而把村子烧了”。
你们可以叫我阴谋论者，因为我禁不住猜测所有这些都是别有用心的。
Mr.T
Swedish model looks like it will be an utter failure , as rest of Europe is slowly preparing gradual reopening Sweden only now looking at lockdowns as body count is starting to pileup ,end result will be longer lockdown and all neighoring countries implementing border closing with Sweden till they get a grip on situation. Economic fallout will be at least as big but likely bigger than rest of EU
Comparing NY mortality to Sweden is not relevant , Sweden is sparsely populated while NY is metropolis , hence for much of Sweden business as usual automatically results in social distancing equal or better than shelter at home can enact in NY or any other megacity.
Swedens policy is not some bright star idea its just a resoult of goverments detached from reality for past decade or two， preocupied with gender and identity politics and in utter denial of reality .
瑞典的模式看起来将会是个彻底的失败，因为欧洲其他国家正在缓慢准备逐步重启它们的经济，而瑞典现在才开始考虑封锁，因为死亡人数开始越积越多，最终的结果将是瑞典必须封锁的更久，而且所有跟瑞典相邻的国家将会贯彻对瑞典的边境封锁，直到瑞典控制了局势。经济影响不会比欧盟其他国家小，很可能更大。
拿纽约的死亡率跟瑞典相比是不恰当的，瑞典人口密度低，而纽约是大都市，因此，对大部分瑞典地区来说，照常营业会自动产生社会距离，它跟纽约或者其他任何大都市的居家避难效果相当，甚至更好。
瑞典的政策并不是什么让人眼前一亮的好点子，这只是过去一二十年间政府脱离现实的结果，它们专注于性别和身份政治，彻底否认现实。
Robert dolan
Sweden was right and the people obxting have to lie to make Sweden look bad. Sweden is no worse off than any of the surrounding countries.
You can add Arkansas, South Dakota, South Carolina, and a few other states that did not lockdown and are doing just fine.
How do you whiny little bitches explain that?
A shutdown is STUPID once the virus has already arrived. The time to lock the border is BEFORE the virus gets a foothold. Since that wasn’t done, it looks to me like they wanted the virus to spread. And you can’t tell me they didn’t know because many govt. officials sold their stocks knowing what was coming.
瑞典是对的，反对的人必须撒谎来让瑞典看起来很糟糕。
瑞典并不比周边的任何国家表现更差。
你还可以把阿肯色州，南达科塔州，南卡罗来纳州以及其他几个没有封锁但是做的不错的州算进来。
你这个爱发牢骚的小贱人怎么解释这个？
一旦病毒已经来临，封锁是愚蠢的。封锁边境的时间应该在病毒落脚之前。既然这没有发生，在我看来就好像他们想让病毒传播一样。而且你不能告诉我说他们也不知道，很多政府官员卖掉了他们的股票，因为他们知道将要发生什么。
Jaakko raipala
We are not doing any better than *Swedes*. The vast majority of dead in Sweden are migrants, especially Somalians, who don’t follow the advice and instead still gather in mosques and such. They also have high levels of obesity and poor health in general compared to ethnic Swedes.
Take out the non-Swedes from Swedish statistics and Sweden isn’t doing any worse than Denmark or Norway. Also note that the virus arrived later to Finland.
The median age of the dead here is 81. This virus only kills people who already have one foot in the grave. They were about to get knocked over by the next flu anyway so we aren’t saving anyone, just postponing their death – unless we make this lockdown permanent so that they’re protected from every flu epidemic but then modern society will collapse and they’ll die anyway as the nursing homes and hospitals won’t be around to extend lifespans.
我们并没有任何做的比‘瑞典人’更好的地方（译注：这里指的是瑞典白人）。瑞典的大部分死亡都是移民，特别是索马里人，他们没有听从建议，反而继续聚集在清真寺此类的地方。与瑞典民族相比，他们患肥胖症的更多，一般来说都不怎么健康。
把这些非瑞典人从瑞典的统计数字里移除，那么瑞典做的不比丹麦或者挪威差。还有要注意的是病毒抵达芬兰的时间要更晚。
死亡的中位数年龄是81岁。这个病毒只会杀死那些已经一只脚踏进了坟墓的人。无论如何，他们本来就要被下一次流感击倒。所以我们不是在挽救任何人，只是延迟他们的死亡——除非我们将这个封锁措施永久化，这样他们就可以免受每一次流感的伤害，但是这样的话现代社会就崩溃了。而且他们无论如何都是要死的，因为养老院和医院无法延长生命。（译注：没有查到索马里人死亡占比的具体数据，大部分文章里引用的都是斯德哥尔摩最早的15例死亡里面有6个是索马里人这个事情。）
Brás Cubas
‘Isso e uma das pocas coisas que me dao esperanca nestos tempos de imbecilidade: No peor o meu pais de primero mundo vai acabar como um Brazil mais frio, com gente que nao sabem o que quer dizer a palavra “jeito”.’
Your fears (or hopes) may be warranted. What they’re doing to the Economy in the first world will have consequences. I used to think that rebuilding economies was easy, based on the examples of pos-WWII Germany and Japan. But I don’t know if that experiment may be replicated today, especially since we don’t know if there will be an equivalent of 1945 U.S.A. to lend a hand.
你的担心（或者希望）也许是有道理的。他们对第一世界的经济的行动是会产生后果的。基于二战后德国和日本的例子，我过去认为重建经济很容易。不过我不知道今天是否还可以复制这个试验，特别是因为我们不知道是否还有和1945年的美国类似的国家伸出援手。（译注：他回复的上面那段评论不是英语，只翻了他这一段）
Hegar
I live in Sweden. While New York has definitely failed, it isn’t true that Sweden has no quarantine.
Now, there is no law allowing the government to do a shutdown, but plenty of stores are closed everywhere. Stockholm has 60% fewer commuters. The Stockholm roads are so empty in the middle of the day that you can ride a bike in the car lane. There are still cars, but nowhere near what there used to be.
At a coffee shop that remains open, there were only seven visitors yesterday before me and my friend went there. They now close early, at six.
Several of my relatives work in offices that are down to 40 percent work hours. Grocery stores have plastic screens in front of the cashiers, and tape on the floor to show the distance between people standing in line.
Sports, clubs, etc are closed. College students have classes over the internet. My girlfriend works from home now, as do I. You see the effects everywhere.
The schools are open, though – which I think is bad, as that’s where disease usually spreads. And the stores choose on their own whether to be closed or not. (But whether they will get customers is another matter.)
The old don’t get visits from “home services,” but instead have food delivered to outside the door. And people opt out of what they can be without.
You could say it’s a “mixed shutdown”. Which may be better than a full shutdown, and better than no shutdown. It’s people using their own judgment.
And of course, Somalis and other usual suspects have more corona cases, just like “Turks” (Kurds) in Belgium rack up more corona cases, as they live with tons of children in each apartment and they don’t care about any rules. So … not all bad.
Alt right moderate
The country with the best strategy of all is Hungary. Rather than aggressively crack down on the productive parts of the economy, or engage in mass crackdowns on the general population, the Hungarians have cracked down on the travelers who are spreading the disease.
Many western countries told returning travelers and foreign immigrants to “self isolate” rather than put them into enforced quarantine, which is why the virus has been able to spread so quickly.
In the long run this fiasco is likely to be a win for nationalists, but the economic price for many countries is going to be heavy.
The countries which are going to suffer the most are those with a heavy focus on tourism and hospitality, which means countries like Spain, Greece, New Zealand and Thailand.
Industrial countries like Germany, Sweden, China and South Korea won’t be too badly affected.
拥有最佳策略的国家是匈牙利。匈牙利没有积极的打击经济的生产部门，也没有大规模的封锁普遍民众，匈牙利人打击了传播病毒的旅行者。
很多西方国家告诉归国旅客和外来移民“自我隔离”，而不是把他们强制隔离，这就是为什么病毒能如此快速传播的原因。
从长远来看，这次惨败可能对国家主义是一场胜利，但是对很多国家来说，经济代价是非常沉重的。
受影响最严重的国家是那些高度重视旅游业和好客的国家，比如西班牙，希腊，新西兰和泰国。
而德国，瑞典，中国和韩国这样的工业国家影响不会太大。
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