为什么俄罗斯的研发和技术实力很强，但经济规模却很小？

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QA
Mikhail Buleev, former Worker at Ilyushin (2006-2011)
Answered Nov 28
Because you confuse some conditional "size of GDP in US dollars" with the real size of the economy.
Comparing the economies of countries by nominal GDP expressed in dollars is stupid.
There are much more telling elements in the economy. For example, a universal measure of the size of the economy could be electricity generation. And you know what? Russia is in fourth place in the world. At the same time, GDP, adjusted for PPP, shows that the size of the Russian economy is about 5 or 6 place in the world. The population should also be taken into account. Comparable in terms of population with Russia countries (I say literally, it is number 8 and number 10 in terms of population, while Russia is number 9 in the world) are Bangladesh and Mexico. Can you estimate the GDP of these countries in comparison with the GDP of Russia? Well, Mexico''s GDP is about 70% of Russia''s GDP, and Bangladesh''s GDP is about 20% of Russia''s GDP (I''m talking PPP GDP).
So, if we examine many factors that indicate the state of the economy, Russia will be stable at 4-6 places in the ranking. It should also be understood that in many countries, GDP consists of 80% of operations performed in the service sector - that is, in fact, this GDP is not provided with real production, but contains a speculative component.
You know, in Russia you can buy a house with an area of 250 square meters at a price of about 100 000 dollars. In the US, you''ll buy it for $ 500,000 - and plus you''ll pay heavy taxes annually.
Therefore, every time I hear something like "Russian economy so small" - I understand that I see before me another pattern of Western anti-Russian propaganda. The truth is that the Russian economy is NOT small.
You simply cannot adequately correlate the real size of the Russian economy with the size of the economies of other countries because of the significant difference in the structure of the economy.

因为你把两种概念混淆了，即“以美元计价的经济规模”和实际的经济规模。
用以美元计价的名义GDP来比较各国的经济规模是愚蠢的。

经济中还有许多更能说明问题的因素。例如，衡量经济规模的一个普遍标准就是发电量。你知道吗？俄罗斯的发电量在世界上排名第四。同时，以购买力评价调整后的GDP总值显示，俄罗斯经济规模在全球大概能排到占第5-6位。还应考虑到人口数量问题，孟加拉国和墨西哥在人口数量方面与俄罗斯国家相当（还是直截了当的说吧，这二者在人口数量方面的排名分别为第六位和第八位，而俄罗斯排在第9位）。这些国家的GDP能跟俄罗斯相比吗？好吧，墨西哥的GDP约占俄罗斯GDP的70%，孟加拉国的GDP约占俄罗斯GDP的20%（我说的是以购买力评价的GDP）。

因此，如果我们考量一下那些反映经济状况的因素，俄罗斯将将能稳定的排到4-6位。还应理解的是，在许多国家、服务业能占到GDP总值的80%，也就是说，这种GDP总值不是由实际生产贡献的，而是含有投机成分。

你知道吗，在俄罗斯，你可以以10万美元的价格买到一套250平方米的房子。在美国，你将需要花费50万美元，而且你每年还需要交纳重税。
因此，每当我听到“俄罗斯经济如此之小”这样的话，我就明白，我眼前所见又是一则西方的反俄报道。真相是，俄罗斯的经济规模并不小。
由于各国经济结构的巨大差异，你根本无法将俄罗斯的实际经济规模与其他国家的经济规模进行充分的比较。

Tomaž Vargazon
Answered Nov 28
Politics.
Russia is not a state in your typical sense. It’s more of a secret service and mafia that siezed power in a state. It’s similar to Prussia and Imperial Japan, who were both said to be “armies that had a state”. Russia is an organized crime ring that has a state.

俄罗斯不是一个典型意义上的国家。更像是一个特务机关和黑手党的联合体，他们在一个国家夺取了政权。俄罗斯类似于普鲁士王国和日本帝国，都被称为“占有一个国家的军队”。俄罗斯是一个有组织犯罪集团，这个犯罪集团占有了一个国家。



A mafia state is existentially threatned by an independent middle class, people who are wealthy enough and have sufficient education to want a say in how the country is ruled. Widespread wealth directly threatens the elites because it creates a critical mass of people who might go to the streets and revolt. Middle class comes with a financial buffer, a typical middle class person can survive for six months on savings alone, there is little leverage the state might have to quickly subdue the insurrection.
It is easy to hold people who are one missed paycheck away from eviction if not starvation in check, you just threaten their livelyhood and they fall in line. If you want them to do something for you they’re also cheap to bribe. A person safe in the knowledge of a decent wage and savings will consider an offer of a $50 bribe for their vote insulting. Someone for whom that will mean not going cold in the winter is much more open to such suggestions.
This is why the Russian elite does not want Russian economy to diversify, anything more than resource extraction and military-industrial complex threatens their power. Significant other industries are therefore suppressed, not entirely eliminated, but they are prevented from ever growing in prominence.


Zgembo Hambislic, former Major (1988-2010)
Answered Nov 29
It is, of course, understandable that the whole notion of developed manufacturing (especially hi-tech machine building sector) being the foundation of national power is completely alien to most US economic "scholars" but that is how world goes about. In fact, even PPP is not precise, granted it is much better metric than preposterous "nominal" GDPs based on US Dollar alone--a number no serious analyst will pay attention to.
But PPP or even adjusters derived from the "Big Mac" index do not reflect a complex reality of modern economics because, as I stated non-stop for many years, to even grasp what the real depth and size of economy are one has to look at actual industrial output of tangibles. Moreover, looking at weapons--their complexity, quality, quantity and effectiveness--is even better adjuster than anything else. It is a truism--only extremely developed economies can produce state-of-the-art nuclear power submarines, complex fighter planes and very complex C4ISR "infrastructure". No amount of financial data-twisting can obfuscate a simple fact--to make and run something like GLONASS or deploy weapons the likes of Kinzhal or Avanguard, requires way more that just "sophisticated" economy, it requires a massive one. In fact, this is very intuitive--something so complex (in fact they are most complex man-made things) as Virginia-class or Yasen-class nuclear submarines require and incredible network of industries, from metallurgy to electronics, to name a few, which, unlike fake papers produced by the Wall Street, do constitute a great index of national power.
But then again, try to explain to some Ivy League-trained "investment" bankster (most of whom never worked on a real job in their life) what is the difference between selling some financial "product" (aka snake oil) and manufacturing, say, something like blades of jet engine. The experience could be fascinating

俄罗斯的情况当然是可以理解的，发达的制造业（尤其是高科技机器制造领域）才是国家权力的基础，这个概念对于大多数美国经济学者来说是完全陌生的，但这个世界就是这样的。事实上，即便是以购买力评价的PPP也并不精确，当然了，PPP还是要比以美元为基础的荒谬“名义”GDP精确得多，没有哪个严肃的分析师会去关注GDP这个数字。

但是，PPP或者从“巨无霸”指数衍生而出的评价体系都无法反映现代经济学的复杂现实，因为正如多年以来我不停地说的那样，要想掌握经济的真正深度和规模，就必须看有形资产的实际工业产出。此外，就是看一个国家的武器，看这个国家武器的复杂性、质量、数量和效力，这种方式比其他任何评价方式都要靠谱。有一条真理：只有极为发达的经济体才能生产最为先进的核动力潜艇、复杂的战斗机和非常复杂的指挥、控制、通信、计算机、情报及监视与侦察“基础设施”。

再多的金融数据扭曲、也无法掩盖一个简单的事实，即要制造和运行像格洛纳斯导航系统这样的东西、或部署像Kinzhal、 Avanguard导弹这样的武器，需要的不仅仅是“复杂”的经济，而且还需要一个庞大的经济。事实上，这是非常直观的，像弗吉尼亚级或亚森级核潜艇，它们就需要高度复杂的东西（事实上是最为复杂的人造物品），这些都是令人难以置信的工业网络，从冶金到电子，只是举几个例子而已。而这些东西与华尔街生产的假文件不同，它们实实在在地构成了一个国家实力的伟大指数。

不过，我还是要试着向一些常春藤盟校培养的“投资银行家”解释一下（他们中的大多数人一生中从未从事过真正的工作）、销售金融“产品”（又称蛇油）和制造业（比如说，喷气发动机的叶片）之间的区别之处，这段经历可能会很吸引人

Dima Vorobiev, Former Soviet propaganda executive
Answered Dec 13
As a a matter of fact, there’s nothing extraordinary about the size of our economy.
Russia’s expenditure on R&D quite nicely corresponds to the place of our economy among others national economies. We’re closing the top 10 list on both counts.
As you can see in the infographics below, on both counts we find ourselves in the comfortable company of other big extractive economies like Brazil, Australia and Canada.

事实上，我们的经济规模并没有什么特别之处。
俄罗斯的研发支出、与我们经济的世界排名是非常吻合的。无论是研发支出还是经济规模排名、都接近前十的位置。
正如你在下面的图表中看到的那样，在研发支出和经济规模两个方面，我们发现俄罗斯处于巴西、澳大利亚和加拿大等其他大型采掘经济体之间的水平。



Alexis Petrenko
Answered Nov 25 · Upvoted by Vladislav Andreev, PhD Economics, Moscow State University
All these R&D activities relate only to the defense industry complex and are only a further development of Soviet-era technologies. Russia has practically no technologies of its own - as maximum - joint production. The country does not even have its own machine tool industry.
Why such small? Because it''s a raw materials economy. Mostly oil and gas. And at the same time, trillions of dollars are being withdrawn from the country to the West. And the West is afraid to invest in the economy, because they already know that they will have to play on wild rules, where officials and security officials rule everything and laws work VERY weird. And much has been written about the wildest corruption curated at the very top.



Edward Lovagrend, former Welder (2013-2016)
Answered Jan 8
Because of demographics, you need a large young population that consumes products, this the term consumption economy. Russia has a rapidly aging population where most of the skill is on the older end, those that were basically educated under the Soviet unx. Now I know people will bring up Japan as a counter argument but for one the US and China are the 2 major markets for it''s economy.. also it has one of the best education systems in the world. Russa I believe is a major comodity exporter think oil, it has a government that basically picks winners and losers and typically if your not in the good graces of the leadership your basically screwed. The US has issues but it''s much more robust for those that wanna start a business.

由于人口统计学，你需要大量年轻人来消费产品，这就是消费经济。而俄罗斯人口迅速老龄化，大部分技能都是些老掉牙的东西，这些技能基本上都是苏联时期所教授的东西。现在，我知道人们会把日本作为俄罗斯的一个反例，但首先，中美两国是日本经济的两个主要市场，而且日本还拥有世界上最佳的教育体系之一。而俄罗斯？我相信它的主要出口商品是石油，俄罗斯有一个政府，但他们基本上只会挑选赢家和输家；如果你不受领导层的欢迎，你基本上就完蛋了。美国也存在问题，但对于那些想创业的人来说、美国要强大得多。

Masao Miwa
Answered Nov 27
Russia has always been strong in military technologies. Russia has always been a contributor to theoretical sciences. Russia graduates as many STEM students as the US with half the population.

俄罗斯在军事技术方面一直很强大，俄罗斯一直都是理论科学的贡献者。在俄罗斯毕业的科学、技术、工程、数学学生和美国一样多，而俄罗斯只有美国一半的人口。



Nick C Georgalis, Author-God and Wealth the Rise and Fall of Nations (2010-present)
Answered Nov 27
Because the government interferes too much in the economy and directs wealth creation to military purposes which is where most R&D and technology is concentrated rather than invest it in the economy.

因为政府对经济的干预太多了，他们把财富创造导向了军事目的，军事领域是俄罗斯大多数研发和技术集中的地方，而不是将财富投资于经济

Boris Ivanov, studied History & Literature at Russian State University for the Humanities
upxed Nov 28
When a venomous snake bites you, American doctors treat you for 140 thousand dollars, while Russian doctors treat you in exactly the same way for 166 dollars. That’s private help, not state-funded (we have that too).
The American economy is much bigger than the Russian economy, no doubt about that. But a huge part of it is ridiculous and artificial financial bubbles funded by the ever growing debts.

当你被毒蛇咬了，美国医生给你治病、要价14万美元，而俄罗斯医生用同样的方式治好你只需166美元。说的是自己出医药费，不是国家资助医药费（我们也有国家资助的医药费）。
毫无疑问，美国的经济规模比俄罗斯要大得多。但其中很大一部分是荒谬的，是由不断增长的债务所导致的人为金融泡沫构成。

Milo Crotoni
Dec 1
I don’t think you really answer the question satisfactorily. You mentioned the different costs of antivenin, but this is a very, very small part of the economic equation - almost negligible. Healthcare costs are lower in Russia, that is true, but how big a factor is that? Surely it’s not the only one, and maybe not even the most significant one.
You DO mention the ever growing debts in the U.S., which IS a significant factor, but fail to compare it to Russia. Then you allude to “financial bubbles” in a vague way. Please explain that in more detail.
I don’t have any particular agenda, but do like to see a sound argument.

我认为你并没有很好地回答这个问题。你提到了两国的抗蛇毒血清成本不同，但这只是经济方程中非常非常小的一部分，几乎可以忽略不计。俄罗斯的医疗成本更低、这是事实，但这个因素能占据多大份额呢？毫无疑问这不是唯一的一个因素，也更不可能是最重要的一个因素。
你确实提到了美国不断增长的债务，这是一个重要的因素，但你没有把美国的债务与俄罗斯的债务做对比。然后你又模糊地提到“金融泡沫”，请详细解释一下。
我没有什么特别的目的，但我想看到一个合理的论点。



Misha Kockscharow
Dec 3 · 1 upvote
Russians can’t steal anything, apart maybe from some classified staff - the patent legislation works here as well. And after a patent expires, it will be cheaper to make (and then internationally sell) almost anything in other countries.

俄罗斯人什么东西都没法盗窃好吧，也许除了某些机密人员会这样干。专利法在俄罗斯也是有效的，在专利到期后，在其他国家生产（然后在国际上销售）几乎任何东西都会更便宜。

Zohar Hirshfeld
Nov 29 · 1 upvote
The technology in the US hospitals is far superior than that in Russia. The life expectancy in both countries varies dramatically, which can explain the$140k vs. $166 difference in treatment costs… not sure that this is a great example.

美国医院的技术远远优于俄罗斯。这两个国家的预期寿命差异很大，这也可以解释14万美元与166美元治疗费用的差异……无法确定这是一个很好的例子。

Eugene Frolov
Nov 30 · 2 upvotes
Take a rich EU country instead of Russia. There, life expectancy is longer and medical costs are still low compared to the US.

那就用一个富裕的欧洲国家来替换一些俄罗斯的位置吧，在那些欧洲国家，人均寿命比美国更长，但医疗费用仍然比美国低廉。

Zohar Hirshfeld
Nov 30
Not sure you are comparing apples to apples. When you say costs are less than US is only in cases where the countries have universal health coverage and thus can negotiate better deals work drug companies, etc. I will check the total costs and see if your statement is correct (I have never compared it before)

你这不是拿苹果和苹果比，当你说医疗成本比美国低时，只有在那些有全民医保覆盖的国家才比美国低，这样一来、制药公司才能通国谈判达成更好的交易。我则会考虑到治疗的总成本、再看看你说的对不对（我以前从未比较过医疗总成本）

Eugene Frolov
Nov 30 · 1 upvote
European countries have universal healthcare as a rule.
By the way, I checked the difference in life expectancy between Russia and the US. 6 years, wow, eyes wide open.
Not to mention that there are other factors when we count life expectancy, not medicine alone.

一般来说，欧洲国家都有全民医保
顺便说一句，我查了一下俄罗斯和美国的预期寿命差异，差距有六年，哇，眼睛惊的睁得大大的！
更不用说，当我们计算预期寿命时还有其他因素，而不仅仅是药物而已。

Craig Lebamoff
Nov 29
Thanks. That was funny. I lived in Russia for five years. When I was there I noted that small business was a very small portion of the economy. The corruption and red tape made it very hard for small business people.

谢谢。真有意思，我在俄罗斯住了五年。我在俄罗斯的时候也注意到，小企业在经济中所占的比重很小，腐败和繁文缛节使小企业的十分艰难。

Michael Chan
Nov 29
A Russian doctor is more expensive?

什么，俄罗斯的医生更贵？



Michael Pineda
Nov 27 · 34 upvotes
Lol most Americans can’t afford to save their life for 140k

笑死了，然而大部分美国人都支付不起14万美元的救命钱。

Michael Bazilinsky, former Investment Adviser
upxed Nov 26
Because of 74 years of socialism from 1917–1991 followed by a complete collapse of everything in the nineties. Even now it is mostly resource oriented economy.

因为从1917年到1991年的74年的社会主义，紧接着在90年代一切都彻底崩溃了。即使是现在，俄罗斯也主要是以资源为导向的经济体。