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Iran nuclear deal: Dead or just dying?

伊朗核协议:这份协议已死或者正在走向死亡吗?



In invoking the dispute mechanism for the Iran nuclear agreement or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) - in other words, in deciding to hold Tehran to account for its breaches of the deal - the UK, France and Germany insist that they are still firmly behind the deal.

英国、法国和德国坚定表示:三国会继续留在协议的框架中。三国为此援引《关于伊朗核计划的全面协议》的争端解决机制,也就是为了让伊朗解释它违背核协议的原因。

"Our hope is to bring Iran back into full compliance with its commitments under the JCPOA," their joint statement reads.

三国发表联合声明称:“我们希望让伊朗重新遵守履行它的在协议中许下的承诺。”



So the JCPOA exists, but in a kind of limbo - abandoned or largely abandoned by its two most important signatories. So what are the Europeans seeking to do ?

所以说,《关于伊朗核计划的全面协议》现在虽然还存在,但是它已经名存实亡了。因为它已经被两个最重要的签约方放弃或者几乎放弃了。那么不禁要问,欧洲各国打算做些什么呢?

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson sought to sketch out a way forward.

英国首相鲍里斯.约翰逊正打算想出一个解决方案。

Speaking on the BBC on Tuesday morning, he said the UK and other signatories would stick with the agreement until it was changed. He understood why the Trump administration was opposed to the deal.

在周二早晨,他对BBC说:英国和其它协议签字国会继续坚持遵守这份协议直到将来有一份新协议来替换它为止。他理解为什么特朗普政府反对这份协议的原因。

But he emphasised that the goal remained "to stop Iran acquiring nuclear weapons. If we are going to get rid of it, we need a replacement," he said. And in an optimistic appeal to the Americans (and perhaps the president''s vanity), he said: "Let''s replace it with the Trump deal."

但是他强调说:“这份协议的目的是为了阻止伊朗拥有核武器。就算我们做好了退出这份协议的打算,我们也必须达成一份新协议来作为替代方案。”他积极对美国方面喊话说:“让我们等着用特朗普制定的协议来替换掉眼下的这份协议吧。”(当然鲍里斯这样做也可能是为了满足美国总统的虚荣心而已。)

But is his optimism misplaced? President Trump says he wants a more restrictive agreement with Tehran, but one of his recent tweets suggests that actually he is not much interested in negotiating with the Iranians at all.

但是,鲍里斯的这种乐观的态度会不会不合时宜呢?特朗普总统说他想要达成一份对伊朗更具有约束力的协议,但是,他最近在推特中表示:他实际上已经对和伊朗人进行协商这件事不那么感兴趣了。

The whole context within which this nuclear dispute is unfolding has changed dramatically since US drones killed Iranian Quds Force commander Gen Qasem Soleimani, and the Iranians'' modest retaliation, and then the tragic downing of a passenger airliner by Iran''s air defences that followed.

在美国无人机杀死了伊朗的苏莱马尼将军后,伊朗对美国展开了适度的报复行动,这件事造成了一家民航客机被击落,于是这份协议的存废就成了争端的主题。

The scenes of protest on the streets of the Iranian capital may well have bolstered the Trump view that pressure on the Iranian regime is working. It is very hard to imagine Mr Trump lifting the sanctions now.

在伊朗首都德黑兰的街头举行的抗议示威活动或许让特朗普增强了对伊朗政权的极限施压已经奏效的信念。现在可以想象,特朗普先生是不会轻易终止制裁的。



The deal was intended to constrain Iran''s nuclear effort for a period of time. It was far from perfect. It did not address wider issues. But there was an underlying hope that the regime would perhaps become less disruptive in the region as it received the economic benefits of engagement.

当初签署这份协议是想要限制伊朗长期以来发展的核项目的规模。这份协议的内容还远远不尽如人意。它没有写入更加具体的内容。但是签署这份协议的其中一个目的是希望伊朗政权能够在地区间扮演一个不那么具有破坏性的角色。与此同时,伊朗也可以从对这份协议的遵守中获得经济利益。

Now in invoking the dispute mechanism, the Europeans are taking the first formal step towards writing the JCPOA''s obituary. They insist that they will stand by it for as long as it exists and that they want a better deal - one that the US can support.

现在欧洲国家在援引该协议的争端解决机制的同时,也在为了之后宣布协议已死迈出自己的第一步。欧洲国家坚持说只要协议还存在,它们就会一直坚持遵守这份协议,但同时它们也说它们想要达成一份更好的协议——一份能够得到美国支持的协议。

For months, analysts have been arguing that the JCPOA was ailing or on life support. It now may be slowly slipping away.

分析人士们已经争论了几个月了,他们在争论这份协议到底是遇到了执行上的困难,还是已经垂死了。现在,这份协议看上去或许会慢慢地失去它的效力。