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I suppose that by now everyone has heard of Trump’s offer to send the American military to “wage WAR on the drug cartels and wipe them off the face of the earth,” which he asserts can be done “quickly and effectively. “
Trump phrased this as an offer to help, not a threat to invade, which is reassuring. AMLO, Mexico’s president, wisely declined the offer.

我猜想,大家应该都已经听说了特朗普提议派遣美国军队“对贩毒集团发动战争,他声称这可以“迅速有效地” 把 毒贩从地球上抹去”。特朗普为令人放心将此行动定性为提供帮助,而不是入侵,不料墨西哥总统奥夫拉多尔明智地拒绝了这项提议。

While the President seems to have made the offer in good faith, he has little idea of Mexico, the military, or the cartels. The American military could not come close to wiping them off the face of the earth, much less effectively and quickly. Such an incursion would be a political and military disaster. The President needs to do some reading.

虽然总统似乎是非常真诚地提出这项提议,但他对墨西哥、军方或卡特尔几乎一无所知。美国军方几乎无法将它们从地球上抹去,更不用说有效和迅速了。这样的入侵只会是一场政治和军事灾难。总统有必要先去阅读相关资料。



Let’s consider terrain. Terrain is what militaries fight in. Start with the Sierra Madre, which I suspect Trump doesn’t know from Madre Teresa. This is the brutally inhospitable mountain range in the northwest of Mexico, from which a great many of the narcos come.(Sinaloa is next door.) Forestation is dense, slopes steep, communication only by narrow trails that the natives know as well as you know how to find your bathroom. Nobody else knows them. American infantry would be helpless here.

我们来看一下地理地形。地形是有关于军队作战的。首先就是一座我甚至怀疑特朗普都不知道的马德雷山。这是墨西哥西北部一坐荒凉的山脉,在这里可以发现大量的毒品种植物。(锡那罗亚在马德雷山隔壁)山里树林茂密,山坡陡峭。就像只有你才知道如何快速找到你家的浴室一样,只有那些没人认识的乡下人才知道存在着狭窄小径。美国步兵在这里会束手无策。

Of the rest of Mexico, much consists of jungle, presenting the same problems as the Sierra Madre. Here we encounter the problem that has proved disastrous for US forces in war after war: there is no way to tell who is a narco and who isn’t.

在墨西哥其他地区,大部分也都是马德雷山一样让人找不着北的丛林地形,在这里我们还会遇到一个问题,同样会在一场又一场的战争中给美军带去了灾难性的后果:,那就是没有办法分辨谁是毒品贩子,而谁又不是。

In cities and towns, narcos are indistinguishable from the general population. How–precisely how, I want to know–would American troops, kitted out in body armor and goggles and looking like idiots, fight the narcos in villages with which they were unfamiliar? The narcos, well armed, would pick off GIs from windows, whereupon the Americans would respond by firing at random, calling in air strikes, and otherwise killing locals. These would now hate Americans. The narcos know this.

在城市和城镇里,毒贩与一般人没有什么区别。美国军队会在不熟悉的城镇与毒枭作战吗? 他们穿着防弹衣,戴着护目镜看起来像个白痴一样找毒贩时候,全副武装的毒贩会从窗户里射杀美国士兵,美国人会随机开火,且呼叫空袭,这样可能就杀死当地人。而这些当地人原来就憎恨美国人,毒枭知道这一点。

Culiacan, Sinaloa, Chapo’s home city. It has a high concentration of narcos. Suppose that you are an infantry officer, sent to “fight the cartels.” You have, say, twenty troops with you, all with hi-tech equipment and things dangling. How do you propose to fight the cartels here?

库利亚坎,锡那罗亚,查波的家乡。这里的毒品渗透率很高。比如假设你是一名步兵军官,被派去“打击卡特尔”,还有20名士兵和你在一起,都配备高科技装备和武器。你打算怎么对付这里的卡特尔?

Don’t expect help from the locals. Most would much rather see you killed than the narcos. And if they collaborated they and their families would be killed. This would discourage them.

不要指望当地人会帮助你。大多数人宁愿看到你被杀而不愿他被毒贩杀。如果他和美国人合作,他们的家人就会被杀。所以他们不会提供消息给美国人。

And of course the narcos will have the option of fading into the population and waiting for the gringos to go home. This means that the invasion would become an occupation. The invading forces would thus need bases, which would become permanent. Bases where? All over the country, which is where the narcos are?

当然,毒枭们也可以选择逐渐消失在人群中,等待着外国佬回家。这意味着入侵将成为占领。入侵部队因此需要基地,而基地将成为永久性的。因为毒枭分布在国内每一个地方,那么基地建在哪里?



Nuff said. May God protect Mexico

说了够多的理由啦 。愿上帝保佑墨西哥