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A sharp disconnect is emerging between America’s economic reality and Wall Street’s curiously blind optimism about the future, reflected in another record-setting streak for US stock prices despite a weakening economic outlook.

美国的经济现状正在跟华尔街对未来古怪的盲目乐观分道扬镳,这一点从一件事情上可以看出,那就是尽管经济前景黯淡,美国股市却又一次创记录的持续飙涨。

US President Donald Trump’s multi-front trade war has raised recession fears and contributed to a renewed contraction in US manufacturing activity, forcing the Federal Reserve to react by reversing course on interest rates and cutting them again three times this year. The Atlanta Federal Reserve is now forecasting an alarmingly weak 0.4 percent annualized rate of growth in the fourth quarter.

美国总统特朗普的多战线贸易战已经引起了人们对衰退的担忧,造成美国制造业又陷入了萎缩状态,迫使美国联邦储备局逆转了利率的发展轨迹,今年已经三次降息了。令人惊讶的是,亚特兰大联邦储备银行目前预测的第四季度的年化增长率仅为微弱的0.4%。

Yet stocks are happy to keep on trucking to new heights on even the tiniest rumor suggesting some progress on the trade conflict between the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies.

然而,对于美国和中国这两个世界上最大的经济体之间的贸易摩擦,即使是听到暗示有关谈判进展的最细碎的流言,股市也很高兴继续把交易价格推向新的高度。

Long-term investors should be reticent, however.

但是长期投资者应该会很谨慎。



“By flouting international trade rules, the administration has diminished the country’s standing in the world and led other governments to consider using the same tools to limit trade arbitrarily,” wrote economists Douglas Irwin and Chad Bown, of Dartmouth College and the Peterson Institute respectively, in a recent Foreign Affairs essay.

在最近发表于《外交事务》杂志上的一篇文章里,分别就职于达特矛斯大学和彼得森学院的道格拉斯和柴德写道:“通过公然藐视国际贸易规则,本届政府已经损伤了美国在世界上的声望,引发其他国家考虑使用同样的办法随心所欲地限制贸易。”

“In some respects,” they added ominously, “there will be no going back.”

他们给出了不祥的补充:“在某些方面,损伤将不可逆”

If Trump shares one thing with Wall Street, it’s short-termism and a focus that often leads to undue volatility and severe uncertainty. As the two instincts meld, it’s as if investors had become suckers for Trump’s age-old trick of touting ‘deals’ with superlatives before watching them fall apart in one way or another.

如果特朗普跟华尔街彼此分享了什么,那就是只注重短期效益的思维方式,以及通常会导致极度反复无常和严重不确定性的观察方式。当这两种本能相结合,投资者们仿佛变成了被特朗普诓骗的高级傻子,特朗普使用他的惯用伎俩“吆喝生意”来诓骗他们,随后会看着他们以各种方式摔得支离破碎。

In other words, investors are happy to bid up share prices on mere talk or even glimmers of a deal with China, however flimsy the details.

换句话说,投资者们很高兴仅凭跟中国贸易协定有关的谈话甚至闲言碎语而哄抬股价,不管这些话是多么经不起推敲。



In other words: Trump lit the match on a global trade war that will probably outlast his increasingly challenged time in office.

换句话说:特朗普点燃了全球贸易战的战火,这场战争持续的时间很可能会比他那不断被挑战的任期还长。