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The global economy is stuck in a rut that it won’t exit unless governments revolutionize policies and how they invest, rather than just hoping for a cyclical upswing, the OECD said.

OCED(经济合作与发展组织)表示,全球经济已经在原地踏步,除非各国政府推动政策改革,以及改善他们的投资方式,而不只是盼望周期性回升,否则经济不会摆脱原地踏步

The latest outlook and policy prescxtions from the Paris-based group mark a step beyond its repeated warnings about threats to growth from U.S.-China tensions, weak investment and trade flows. Those remain, but it also flags more systemic challenges from climate change, technology and the fact that the trade war is just part of a bigger shift in the global order.

这家位于巴黎的组织在其最新展望和政策建议中,进一步强调了它反复警告的事情,即美中的紧张关系、投资和贸易流量减少增加了全球经济面对的威胁。除了这些以外,该组织还指出了更多系统性的挑战,这些挑战来自气候变化、科技以及贸易战只是一次全球秩序大变的一部分这个事实。

For OECD Chief Economist Laurence Boone, the worry is that the world could continue to suffer in the decades to come if authorities offer short-term fiscal and monetary fixes as the only response.

对OECD首席经济学家劳伦斯·布恩来说,让人担忧的是,如果各国政府仅仅解决短期的财政和货币问题,那么在未来几十年,世界可能会继续停滞不前。

“The biggest concern… is that the deterioration of the outlook continues unabated, reflecting unaddressed structural changes more than any cyclical shock,” Boone said. “It would be a policy mistake to consider these shifts as temporary factors that can be addressed with monetary and fiscal policy: they are structural.”

布恩表示:“最大的担忧...是经济的恶化持续加深,比任何周期性经济休克导致的结构性转变都要多。如果认为这些转变是临时性因素,可以用货币和财政政策纠正,就会犯政策性错误:这些转变是结构性的”



The entrenched trade and investment challenges mean governments must make deeper changes beyond simply rolling back tariffs of the last two years. This could mean updating global rules and reducing subsidies with harmful effects on trade, the OECD said.

难以撼动的贸易和投资挑战意味着各国政府必须做出深层次的改革,而不只是把过去两年加的关税都取消。OECD表示,这可能意味着要更新国际规则,减少对贸易有不良影响的补贴。

It urged a similarly profound rethink of environmental policies amid bushfires in Australia and flooding in Venice that some have lixed to climate change. The backlash against carbon emissions has even led to protest movements such as “flight shaming.”

除了经济,该组织还敦促人们对澳大利亚森林大火和威尼斯洪水期间的环境政策进行同样深刻的反思。其中有的政策与气候变化有关。对碳排放的强烈反对甚至导致了像“乘飞机无耻”这样的抗议活动

Beyond how climate events harm the economy, how governments regulate and respond is also having an impact. Without clear policy on issues like carbon tax, the delays to business investment have “dire consequences for growth and employment,” Boone said.

除了天气事件会伤害经济,政府的监管和应对方式也会对经济产生影响。布恩表示,如果对碳排税等问题没有明确的政策,商业投资的延迟会“对经济增长和就业造成严重的后果”。

While fiscal stimulus could provide a short-term boost, the OECD said the focus should be on the long term, such as through dedicated investment funds.

OECD表示,在财政刺激促进经济短期上涨的同时,我们应该把注意力集中在长期增长,比如通过专项投资基金投资。

“The situation remains inherently fragile, and structural challenges are daunting,” Boone said. “There is a unique window of opportunity to avoid a stagnation that would harm most people: restore certainty and invest for the benefit of all.”

布恩说:“现在的情况本质上仍然不稳定,结构性挑战令人怯步。经济停滞会伤害大部分人,有一个独一无二的机会窗口能避免停滞,那就是:恢复确定性以及让投资惠及所有人。”