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The Turkish military has begun bombing northern Syria, empowered by Donald Trump’s public announcement that he had green-lighted a Turkish operation into territory occupied by U.S.-backed Kurdish forces, essentially exposing a key ally in America’s fight against the Islamic State (ISIS) to new dangers.

土耳其军队已经开始轰炸叙利亚北部,唐纳德·特朗普公开宣布,他已经为土耳其的行动开绿灯,进入美国支持的库尔德部队占领的领土,实质上使美国打击伊斯兰国(ISIS) 的一个关键盟友面临新的危险。

Trump announced that the Turks had his blessing on Sunday. By Tuesday night, Turkish shells began flying across the border and opportunistic suicide bombers launched an attack on the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the former ISIS capital of Raqqa. The following day, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdo?an announced the beginning of Operation Peace Spring. By nighttime, Turkish tanks were rolling over the border.


The operation will include an army of Islamist rebels opposed to the government of Bashar al-Assad, Erdo?an claimed.


Public statements from officials only make the situation murkier.


“The state of Turkey is worried about its southern border. To worry about this is its right,” said Iranian president Hassan Rouhani during a televised cabinet meeting. “But it must choose the correct path.”

“土耳其政府对其南部边界感到担忧。 伊朗总统哈桑 · 鲁哈尼在一次电视直播的内阁会议上说。 但它必须选择正确的道路。”

“We don’t think that this path will be a beneficial path, a good path for the region, for Syria, for Turkey,” Rouhani continued. “The main problem now is not northern Syria, is not east of the Euphrates. Our first problem is Idlib. It is a place where all the terrorists have been gathered. We hope that other countries, especially Turkey, cooperate and focus on this problem so that we do not face a new problem.”

鲁哈尼继续说道: “我们不认为这条道路是一条有益的道路,对该地区、叙利亚和土耳其都是一条好道路。”

Idlib is the last province of Syria dominated by Islamist rebels. Turkey has several observation posts, which have been attacked by pro-Assad troops several times over the summer.

伊德利卜省是叙利亚最后一个由伊斯兰叛军控制的省份, 土耳其有几个观察哨,这些哨所在今年夏天多次遭到支持阿萨德的军队的袭击。

Russian leader Vladimir Putin called Erdo?an on Wednesday to warn him against endangering the peace process. According to a Kremlin readout of the call, both leaders agreed to preserve the territorial integrity of Syria.

俄罗斯领导人弗拉基米尔 · 普京周三致电埃尔多安,警告他不要危及和平进程,根据克里姆林宫公布的电话内容,两位领导人同意保留叙利亚领土完整。

“Iran’s established position has been to encourage the Kurds to reach a kind of compromise with Assad to prevent any kind of Turkish invasion in that part of Syria,” said Hamidreza Azizi, assistant professor of regional studies at Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran. “There have been real efforts in place by the Iranian side to push the two sides toward compromise.”

德黑兰沙希德·贝赫什提大学地区研究助理教授 Hamidreza Azizi 说: 伊朗的既定立场是鼓励库尔德人与阿萨德达成某种妥协,以防止土耳其入侵叙利亚的这一地区。 “伊朗方面做出了真正的努力,推动双方达成妥协。”

But the SDF is not just “the Kurds,” and has grown to include many anti-Assad forces under U.S. protection.

但自卫队不仅仅是“库尔德人” ,而且已经发展到包括许多处于美国保护之下的反阿萨德力量。

In a recent report published by the Wilson Center, Amy Austin Holmes estimated that between 50 percent and 70 percent of SDF fighters are Arab. About 60 percent of the fighters she interviewed told her that a political solution is impossible while Assad is in power.

在威尔逊中心最近发布的一份报告中,艾米 · 奥斯汀 · 霍姆斯估计,50% 至70% 的自卫队战斗机是阿拉伯人。 在她采访的战士中,大约60% 的人告诉她,只要阿萨德在位,政治解决是不可能的。

Late on Tuesday, Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif condemned any Turkish military action, but also brought up the Adana Agreement of 1999. In the pact, Syria had agreed to cut off its support for Kurdish guerrillas in Turkey and expel Kurdish nationalist leader Abdullah ?calan.

周二晚些时候,伊朗外交部长贾瓦德 · 扎里夫谴责了土耳其的任何军事行动,但也提到了1999年的《阿达纳协定》。 在协议中,叙利亚同意切断对土耳其库尔德游击队的支持,并驱逐库尔德民族主义领导人阿卜杜拉卡兰。

Azizi explained the comments as a “shift in Iran’s position from trying to reach the compromise between the Kurds and Damascus to trying to reach a compromise between Turkey and Damascus.”
“I think [Russia] wouldn''''t be happy with a major offensive, but at the same time, if there was a smaller incursion, they would not be as opposed to it as they publicly state,” Borshchevskaya said.


“For the likes of the [Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, and those that are actually present in Syria, they would rather deal with a Turkish presence than an American presence,” said Dina Esfandiary, International Security Program Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School''''s Belfer Center. “Certain members of the Rouhani administration would rather have the Americans there, because at least they’re a presence that can be counted on, and they’re supposed to be helping the Kurds keep the peace, et cetera, whereas the Turks will not be able to do that.”

约翰·F·肯尼迪政府学院贝尔弗中心国际安全项目研究员 Dina Esfandiary 说: “对于像伊朗革命卫队这样的组织,以及那些真正在叙利亚活动的组织,他们宁愿与土耳其打交道,也不愿与美国打交道。”

Turkish warplanes have bombed Ayn Issa, the capital of the SDF’s statelet, according to the SDF spokesman’s office. The Rojava Information Center and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights have confirmed this.

根据自卫队发言人办公室的消息,土耳其战机轰炸了自卫队首府艾因 · 伊萨, Rojava 信息中心和叙利亚人权观察站已经证实了这一点。

In January 2018, Erdo?an had attempted this plan on a smaller scale. Turkish troops attacked the SDF in the enclave of Afrin, installing an Islamist rebel government in their stead. The Turkish-backed rebels confiscated property from locals, and took the opportunity to resettle thousands of refugees from elsewhere in Syria.

2018年1月,埃尔多安曾在较小规模上尝试过这一计划, 土耳其军队袭击了位于阿夫林飞地的自卫队,代之以一个伊斯兰叛军政府, 土耳其支持的反.政府武装没收了当地人的财产,并利用这个机会重新安置了来自叙利亚其他地方的数千名难民。

“[Iranians] are concerned that the Turkish invasion and the resettlement of the Syrian refugees—and those members of armed groups affiliated with Turkey—in the Kurdish areas will change the demographic structure of those parts of Syria to the detriment of the Assad government and Damascus,” Azizi said.


A few hours before Trump’s Sunday night announcement, Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif addressed the Iranian parliament about Turkey’s role in Syria. A member of parliament from Mahabad, a predominantly Kurdish province, asked the foreign minister about Afrin.

在特朗普周日晚间发表声明的几个小时前,伊朗外交部长贾瓦德 · 扎里夫向伊朗议会发表讲话,谈到了土耳其在叙利亚的角色,来自以库尔德人为主的马哈巴德 的一名议员向外交部长询问了 Afrin 的情况。

“I expressed my opposition in Turkey, and President [Rouhani] was also opposed to this matter. We believe that the rights of the Kurdish people in Syria must be protected. We believe in respecting the rights of all the people in the region, and international borders,” Zarif responded. “Of course, the security of Turkey must also be protected, but security is not protected by means of a military expedition.”