原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译:周天寰宇2 转载请注明出处

Cost of potential US war with Iran? $250 oil & another Afghanistan

美国可能与伊朗开战的代价有多大? 一桶石油250美元和另一个阿富汗战场



Iran’s downing of a US military surveillance drone last week predictably led to another flare-up in tense relations between Tehran and Washington. What could be the implications of a potential conflict between the two nations?

不出所料,伊朗上周击落美国一架军用无人侦察机导致德黑兰和华盛顿之间紧张关系再度升温。这两个国家之间爆发的冲突意味着什么?

Right after the Global Hawk UAV was shot down, the New York Times reported that US President Donald Trump approved military strikes against Iran, but then changed his mind.

全球鹰无人机被击落后,纽约时报》报道称美国总统唐纳德·特朗普批准对伊朗进行军事打击,但随后改变了主意。



Moreover, the purpose of any military conflict is to do as much damage to your enemy as possible in terms of personnel, military hardware and other equipment. This is how the goals of any armed conflict are achieved. Of course, it would be best if civilian losses are kept to a minimum, but for the US it’s more of a secondary rather than a primary obxtive.

此外,任何军事冲突的目的都是在人员、军事硬件和其他设备方面尽可能多地破坏。任何武装冲突的目标都是这样实现的。当然,将平民伤亡控制在最低水平最好,但对美国来说这是次要目标,而不是首要目标。

The US Navy and Air Force traditionally strike before dawn with one purpose alone – to avoid the antiaircraft artillery (both small and medium-caliber), as well as a number of air defense systems with optical tracking, firing at them. Besides, a strike in the dark hours of the day affects the morale of the enemy personnel.

美国海军和空军传统上只在黎明前进行打击,目的只有一个——避开高射炮(包括小口径和中口径炮),以及防止一些具有光学跟踪功能的防空系统追踪。此外,在黑白交替之际发动攻击会影响敌方人员士气。

Here we need to understand that Iran would instantly retaliate, and Tehran has no small capabilities for that. In other words, it would be a full-scale war. For the US, it wouldn’t end with one surgical airstrike without consequences, like in Syria. And the US seems to have a very vague idea on what a military victory over Iran would look like.

我们需要明白的是伊朗将立即采取报复行动,而德黑兰对此不会姑息。换句话说这将是一场全面的战争。对美国来说对伊朗作战不会像在叙利亚那样以一次外科手术式的空袭告终。美国似乎对军事上攻击伊朗会是什么样子有一个非常模糊的想法。

There is no doubt that a prolonged air campaign by the US will greatly undermine Iran’s military and economic potential and reduce the country to the likes of Afghanistan, completely destroying its hydrocarbon production and exports industries.

毫无疑问美国长期的空中打击将极大削弱伊朗的军事和经济潜力,使伊朗沦为阿富汗那样的国家,彻底摧毁其石油生产出口行业。

To say how long such a campaign could last would be too much of a wild guess, but we have the examples of Operation Desert Storm in 1991 when airstrikes lasted for 38 days, and Yugoslavia in 1991 when the bombing continued for 78 days. So, theoretically, the US could bomb Iran for, say, 100 days, wrecking the country’s economy and infrastructure step by step.

谈论这样一场战役能持续多久恐怕还为时尚早,但我们可以以1991年沙漠风暴行动为例子。这场战争空袭持续了38天,1991年美国对南斯拉夫的轰炸持续了78天。因此从理论上讲美国可以对伊朗进行为期100天的轰炸,以摧毁伊朗基础设施。

However, the price the US would have to pay for starting such a military conflict may turn out to be too high.

然而,美国为发动这样一场军事冲突所付出的代价太高了。

For instance, Iran can respond to US aggression by launching intermediate and shorter-range ballistic missiles to target oil and gas fields and terminals in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE.

例如,伊朗可以通过发射中短程弹道导弹回应美国侵略,目标则是沙特阿拉伯、卡塔尔、科威特和阿联酋的油气田和炼油厂。



If such a scenario came true, that would bring inconceivable chaos to the global economy and would immediately drive up oil prices to $200-250 per barrel – and that’s the lowest estimate. It is these implications that are most likely keeping the US from attacking Iran.

如果这一设想成为现实,将给全球经济带来难以想象的混乱,并将油价立即推高至每桶200至250美元——这是最低的估计。正是这些暗示最有可能阻止美国攻击伊朗。

To solve the problem of Iran once and for all, the US would need to mount a large-scale ground operation, with the US Army invading the country. America would have to wipe out both regular Iranian forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, unseat the current leadership of Iran, and have a military presence in every major city for the next 10 to 15 years, keeping tight control over the entire country at the same time.

为了一劳永逸解决伊朗问题,美国将需要发动大规模地面行动。美国军队将入侵伊朗。美国必须消灭伊朗常规部队和伊斯兰革命卫队,推翻伊朗目前领导层,并在未来10至15年在每个主要城市都部署军队,同时牢牢控制整个国家。

For the record, the US failed to do that even in Afghanistan, which is several times smaller than Iran in terms of both territory and population. And almost 18 years of fighting later, the US has achieved next to nothing.

从历史记录来看即使在阿富汗,美国也没能做到这一点。阿富汗国土面积和人口都只有伊朗的几分之一。但经过近18年的战斗,美国几乎一无所获。