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Huawei was doing an incredible job of defying mobile industry trends when national security concerns prompted President Trump to put an end to the Chinese tech giant's business ties with American companies and even foreign enterprises using "US original technology."

当借由国家安全得借口,美国总统特朗普将这家中国科技巨头与美国公司甚至是使用了“美国原产技术”得外国公司之间得商业联系斩断了的时候,华为在对抗移动手机行业趋势上做出了不起的成就。



If Huawei ends up losing access to Google apps, services, and the Android operating system as a whole, next year could see the brand totally "wiped out of the Western European smartphone market" the company has fought so hard to conquer these past few years. As a direct consequence of that potential "wipeout", Strategy Analytics expects shipments to drop another 23 percent in 2020 compared to 2019.

如果华为最终失去了使用谷歌应用、服务和整个安卓操作系统的使用权限,那么华为将会在下一年被它过去几年一直艰苦奋斗以求占领的西欧市场完完全全的扫地出门。(注:国外的安卓系统依赖于谷歌服务框架的支持,如果不能获得谷歌的授权就不能在手机上预装谷歌服务框架,结果就会导致Google Play应用商店上的部分依赖于谷歌服务框架的应用无法运行,其中包括的youtube、Google search的、Google map等国民应用将无法使用,势必会造成国外用户的流失)作为可能的极高的“扫地出门”的直接后果,战略分析家们认为华为2020年的出货量相比2019年会下跌额外的23%。

A similarly bleak Fubon Research forecast downgrades Huawei's 2019 numbers from a previous expectation of 258 million unit sales to around 200 million in a "worst-case scenario." Of course, that's still a lot of phones and it would probably be enough to keep the embattled company among the world's top three vendors. In fact, even if Huawei loses Google and Qualcomm's support for good, its mobile business could easily survive on the "sheer size of the China market." Then again, it remains unclear how Huawei could continue making smartphone processors without ARM.

富邦研究所也提出了类似的消极预测:在“最糟糕的情况下”将华为2019年的的预期出货量从2亿5千8百万部下调到2亿部。当然,这仍然是手机领域很大的出货量,这也许也足够保证即使是陷入困境的华为依然是世界上第三大手机制造商。(前两名分别是韩国的三星和美国的苹果)事实上,即使华为失去了谷歌和高通的大力支持,(谷歌掌握着安卓操作系统,高通掌握着骁龙系列的手机SoC,不过华为主要使用自己子公司海思半导体的SoC)它的移动手机业务在“规模庞大的中国市场”下依然能够轻松的存活并发展。(中国的安卓系统和应用不依赖于谷歌服务框架)然而,在没有ARM的帮助下华为如何继续制造智能手机处理器仍然存疑。(现在移动设备包括手机平板等大部分使用ARM公司的移动处理器)