原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译:yzy86 转载请注明出处
论坛地址:http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-486608-1-1.html



Vietnam is the biggest winner from theshift in supply chains caused by the nearly year-long trade war between Chinaand the United States, according to a report, as importers from the world’s twolargest economies sought to avoid paying increased tariffs.

根据一份报告的说法,打了几乎整整一年的中美贸易战,使得越南因为供应链转移而成了最大赢家,而这种转移是世界上最大两个经济体的进口商力图避免支付升高的关税造成的。

The economy of the Southeast Asian nationhas been boosted by almost 8 per cent because of the shift in productionresulting from the US-China trade war, according to analysis by Japaneseinvestment bank Nomura.

根据日本投行Nomura(野村控股)的分析,由于美中贸易战导致的生产转移,东南亚国家的经济已经增长了约8个百分点。

The bank studied trade data for the world’s50 biggest economies. Its report spanned from the first quarter of 2018,shortly before the US released its first list of Chinese imports on which itplanned to increase tariffs, to the first three months of 2019. The goal was togauge the extent of the trade diversions – the redirection of goods to avoidpaying duties.

该银行研究了世界前50大经济体的贸易数据。其报告的跨度从2018年一季度,也就是美国公布出计划要提高关税针对的第一批中国进口商品清单前不久,一直到2019年的前
三个月。目的就是要估计贸易转移的程度,即为了规避缴税而出现的货物转向。



Taiwan’s exports, meanwhile, shrank by 3.3per cent in April from a year earlier, meaning that despite the fact that it ispicking up some of China’s trade diversion, it is suffering as a result oflower demand in China, which is by far its largest trading partner, accountingfor 28.8 per cent of total exports.

与此同时,台湾4月份的出口相比去年缩水了3.3个百分点,这就表示:尽管台湾确实获得了中国贸易转移中的一部分,却也因为来自中国的需求变低而受到了损伤。

“Importantly, these results suggest that if the US follows through onits threat to impose 25 per cent tariffs on its remaining US$300 billion ofimports from China, it could lead to substantially more import substitution,given that a much larger proportion of this tranche of imports comprises ofelectronic products,” Nomura’s analysts wrote.

野村的分析师写到,“重要的是,这些结果表明:鉴于这批进口商品中电子产品所占的比例要大得多,如果美国把对剩余3000万中国进口商品征收25%关税的威胁贯彻到底,便会出现更多的大规模进口替代”。

Nomura found that 12 out of the top 20companies listed on the American S&P 500 stock index with net sales inChina were electronic companies with a combined revenue of US$144 billion lastyear. The US is now soliciting public comments on the Trump administration’splan announced in May to impose tariffs of up to 25 per cent on the remainingUS$300 billion worth of Chinese goods, with a hearing set to take place on June17. If a similar pattern to previous tariff imposition is followed, the nextraft could be in place as early as July.

野村投行发现,美国标准普尔500指数中在中国净销售额前20强的公司(去年的合计收入为1440亿美元),有12家是电子公司。美国正在征求公众对特朗普政府5月所宣布计划的意见,即对剩余价值3000亿的中国商品征收高达25%的进口关税,在6月17日安排了一场听证会。如果继续效仿和之前类似的关税征收模式,那么下一班“救生筏”最早在7月就能就位。

“If recent US business restrictions on China’s Huawei and ZTEtechnology companies escalate into a ‘cold war’ on technology, the potentialfor major reallocation of global value chains should not be underestimated, asChina’s tech giants shift from US suppliers to local ones, and as multinationalsthrough the supply chain turn to new suppliers and customers,” the report said.

这份报告说道,“如果美国最近对中国的华为和中兴等科技公司的商业限制升级为一场技术‘冷战’,全球价值链大规模再配置的潜在可能性就不应被低估,这是因为中国的科技巨头们把美国供应商换成了本国供应商,也因为供应链上的跨国公司转向了新的供应商和消费者”。

The shift in supply chains has shaved 0.5per cent from China’s GDP this year, compared with 0.3 per cent in the US,since exports to US made up a larger share of China’s economy, according to theresearch.

根据这项研究,供应链的转移已经让中国今年的GDP损失了0.5%,而美国的数字为0.3%,因为对美国的出口占中国经济的份额更大。



“Higher US tariffs penalise not only theassembler of the product, but also suppliers through the value chain, andsmaller Asian economies are particularly vulnerable, given Asia’s elaboratue chains with China at the epicentre,” the report concluded.

该报告作出的结论是,“鉴于在亚洲复杂精密的价值链上,中国正身处震中,更高的关税不仅惩罚了商品的装配者,也惩罚了价值链上下游的供应商,而体量较小的亚洲经济体尤其脆弱”。