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YourGeopolitical Quiz for the Day:

今天的地缘政治小测验:

Two countries are embroiled ina ferocious rivalry. One country’s meteoric growth has put it on a path tobecome the world’s biggest economic superpower while the other country appearsto be slipping into irreversible decline. Which country will lead the worldinto the future?

两个国家卷入了激烈的竞争。一个国家的飞速增长使其走上了成为世界最大经济超级大国的道路,而另一个国家似乎正滑向不可逆转的衰退。哪个国家将引领世界走向未来?

Country A buildsfactories and plants, it employees zillions of people who manufacture things,it launches massive infrastructure programs, paves millions of miles ofhighways and roads, opens new sea lanes, vastly expands its high-speed railnetwork, and pumps profits back into productive operations that turbo-chargeits economy and bolster its stature among the nations of the world.

国家A建立各类工厂,无数员工制造东西,它推出大规模基础设施项目,铺设数百万英里的高速公路和道路,开设新航道,利润大大扩展。高铁网络得到了极大的扩张,利润也回到了生产经营中,从而推动了经济的发展,提升其在世界各国中的地位。



Overthe weekend, more than 5,000 delegates from across the world met in Beijing forThe Second Belt and Road Forum For International Cooperation. The conferenceprovided an opportunity for public and private investors to learn more about XiJinping’s “signature infrastructure project” that is reshaping trade relationsacross Europe, Asia, Latin America and Africa.

上周末,来自世界各地的5000多名代表齐聚北京,参加第二届“一带一路”国际合作高峰论坛。此次会议为公众和私人投资者提供了一个了解中国“标志性基础设施项目”的机会,该项目正在重塑欧洲、亚洲、拉美和非洲的贸易关系。

According to journalist PepeEscobar, “The BRI is now supported by no less than 126 states and territories,plus a host of international organizations” and will involve “six majorconnectivity corridors spanning Eurasia.” The massive development project is“one of the largest infrastructure and investment projects in history,….including 65% of the world’s population and 40% of the global gross domesticproduct as of 2017.” (Wikipedia) The improvements to road, rail and sea routeswill vastly increase connectivity, lower shipping costs, boost productivity,and enhance widespread prosperity. The BRI is China’s attempt to replace thecrumbling post-WW2 “liberal” order with a system that respects the rights ofsovereign nations, rejects unilateralism, and relies on market-based principlesto effect a more equitable distribution of wealth. The Belt and Road Initiativeis China’s blueprint for a New World Order. It is the face of 21st centurycapitalism.

据记者PepeEscobar介绍,“一带一路”倡议目前得到不少于126个国家和地区以及一系列国际组织的支持”,将涉及“横跨欧亚大陆的六大互联互通走廊”。这个庞大的开发项目是“历史上最大的基础设施和投资项目之一,……”包括截至2017年全球65%的人口和40%的国内生产总值。”(来自维基)

公路、铁路和海上航线的改善将大大加强互联互通,降低运输成本,提高生产率,促进普遍繁荣。“一带一路”是中国试图用一个尊重主权国家权利、反对单边主义、依靠市场原则实现更公平财富分配的体系,来取代二战后摇摇欲坠的“自由”秩序。“一带一路”建设是中国构建世界新秩序的蓝图。这是21世纪资本主义的面貌。

The prestigious event inBeijing was barely covered by the western media which sees the project as alooming threat to US plans to pivot to Asia and become the dominant player inthe most prosperous and populous region in the world. Growing international supportfor the Chinese roadmap suggests that Washington’s hegemonic ambitions areliely to be short-circuited by an aggressive development agenda that eclipsesanything the US is currently doing or plans to do in the foreseeable future.

西方媒体几乎没有报道在北京举行的这一著名活动。西方媒体认为,该项目对美国转向亚洲、成为全球最繁荣和人口最多地区的主导力量计划构成了迫在眉睫的威胁。国际社会对中国路线图的日益支持表明,美国的霸权野心很可能会被一项咄咄逼人的发展议程所打断,该议程将使美国目前正在做或计划在可预见的未来做的任何事情黯然失色。



It comes at no surprise that USpowerbrokers see Putin’s plan as a significant threat to their regionalambitions, in fact, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton admitted as muchin 2012 when she said, “It’s going to be called a customs union, it will becalled the Eurasian Union and all of that, but let’s make no mistake about it.We know what the goal is and we are trying to figure out effective ways to slowdown or prevent it.” Washington opposes any free trade project in which it isexcluded or cannot control. Both the EEU and the BRI fall into that category.

那么美国政治巨头看到普京的计划是一个重大威胁的地区野心也就不足为奇了。事实上,前美国国务卿Hillary Clinton承认在2012年,她说,“这将被称为关税联盟,它将包括欧亚联盟和所有(其他国际组织),对此我们无能做出错误抉择。我们知道我们的目标是什么,我们正试图找出有效的方法来减缓或预防它。华盛顿反对任何将其排除在外或无法控制的自由贸易项目。欧洲经济区和“一带一路”都属于这一范畴。

The United States continues todemonize countries that simply want to use the market to improve the lives oftheir people and increase their prospects for prosperity. Washington’s hostileapproach is both misguided and counterproductive. Competition should be seen asa way to improve productivity and lower costs, not as a threat to over-bloated,inefficient industries that have outlived their usefulness. Here’s an excerptfrom an article that Putin wrote in 2011. It helps to show that Putin is notthe scheming tyrant he is made out to be in the western media, but a freemarket capitalist who enthusiastically supports globalization:

美国继续妖魔化那些仅仅想利用市场改善其人民生活和增加其繁荣前景的国家。华盛顿的敌对态度不仅误导,而且适得其反。竞争应被视为提高生产率和降低成本的一种方式,而不是对那些过度膨胀、效率低下、已失去作用的行业的威胁。这是普京2011年写的一篇文章的节选。这有助于表明,普京并不是西方媒体所说的那种诡计多端的暴君,而是一个狂热支持全球化的自由市场资本主义者:

“Forthe first time in the history of humanity, the world is becoming truly global,in both politics and economics. A central part of this globalization is thegrowing importance of the Asia-Pacific region as compared to the EuroAtlanticworld in the global economy. Asia’s rise is lifting with it the economies of countriesoutside Asia that have managed to latch onto the “Asian economic engine”….TheUS has also effectively hitched itself to this “engine”, creating an economicand financial network with China and other countries in the region…

(普京提到)
“在人类历史上,世界第一次在政治和经济上真正走向全球化。这种全球化的一个核心部分是:与欧洲大西洋世界相比,亚太区域在全球经济中的重要性日益增加。亚洲的崛起也带动了亚洲以外那些成功抓住“亚洲经济引擎”的国家的经济。…美国也有效地利用了这一“引擎”,与中国和该地区其它国家建立了一个经济和金融网络…

The “supercontinent” of Eurasiais home to two-thirds of the world’s population and produces over 60 percent ofits economic output. Because of the dramatic opening of China and the formerSoviet Union to the world, almost all the countries in Eurasia are becomingmore economically, politically, and culturally interdependent. …

欧亚大陆拥有世界三分之二的人口,经济产出占世界总量的60%以上。由于中国和前苏联对世界的巨大开放,欧亚大陆几乎所有国家在经济、政治和文化上变得更加相互依赖。...



Is it any wonder why Russia andChina have emerged as Washington’s biggest enemies? It has nothing to do withthe fictitious claims of election meddling or so-called “hostile behavior” inthe South China Sea. That’s nonsense. Washington is terrified that theRusso-Chinese economic integration plan will replace the US-dominated “liberal”world order, that cutting edge infrastructure will create an Asia-Europesuper-continent that no longer trades in dollars or recirculates profits into USdebt instruments. They are afraid that an expansive free trade zone thatextends from Lisbon to Vladivostok will inevitably lead to new institutions forlending, oversight and governance. They are afraid that a revamped 21st centurycapitalism will result in more ferocious competition for their clunkercorporations, less opportunity for unilateralism and meddling, and arules-based system where the playing field is painstakingly kept level. That’swhat scares Washington.

俄罗斯和中国成为华盛顿最大的敌人,很奇怪吗?这与所谓“干预选举”或南海“敌对行为”的虚假主张无关。这是无稽之谈。华盛顿担心,俄中经济一体化计划将取代美国主导的“自由”世界秩序,担心尖端的基础设施将缔造一个不再以美元交易、也不再将利润再注入美国债务工具的亚欧超级大陆。他们担心,从里斯本延伸至符拉迪沃斯托克的广阔自由贸易区,将不可避免地带来新的贷款、监管和治理机构。他们担心,改革后的21世纪资本主义将导致他们的旧车换现金企业面临更激烈的竞争,单边主义和干预的机会更少,以及一个以规则为基础的体系,在这个体系中,竞争环境艰难地保持在同一水平。这正是华盛顿害怕的。

The Belt and Road Initiativeand the Eurasian Economic Union represent the changing of the guard. TheUS-backed ‘neoliberal’ model of globalisation is being rejected everywhere,from the streets of Paris, to Brexit, to the rise of right wings groups acrossEurope, to the unexpected election of Donald Trump in 2016. The Russo-Chinesemodel is built on a more solid, and less extractive, foundation. This newvision anticipates an interconnected multipolar world where the rules governingcommerce are decided by the participants, where the rights of every state arerespected equally, and where the new guarantors for regional securityscrupulously keep the peace. It is this vision of ‘revitalized capitalism’ thatWashington sees as its mortal enemy.

“一带一路”倡议和欧亚经济联盟代表着观念的转变。美国支持的“新自由主义”全球化模式在任何地方都遭到拒绝,从巴黎街头到英国退欧,从欧洲右翼团体的崛起,到2016年意外当选的Donald Trump。俄中模式建立在一个更坚实、更不易开采的基础之上。这一新的设想期望建立一个相互联系的多极世界,在这个世界中,管理商业的规则由参与者决定,每一个国家的权利都得到平等的尊重,区域安全的新保证国严格维护和平。华盛顿将这种“重振资本主义”的愿景视为死敌。