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America Shouldn't Treat China The Same Way It Treated Japan

美国不应该以对待日本的方式对待中国



作者:Panos Mourdoukoutas
Dec 8, 2018

简介:作者是同时任职于纽约长岛大学和哥伦比亚大学的经济系教授,发表于福布斯杂志的这篇文章充满了傲慢和对中国的不了解,但有一句话他说对了,“与日本不同,中国历来不屈服于外国压力, 即使形势明显对中国不利。”

America shouldn’t treat China the same way it treated Japan back in the 1980s. When it comes to trade disputes, that is. It won’t work, and it could place the world trade and financial system at risk.

当涉及到贸易争端时,美国不应该像20世纪80年代对待日本那样对待中国。 这种做法行不通,而且可能使世界贸易和金融体系面临风险。

America’s current trade disputes with China parallel those with Japan back in the early 1980s. They both revolve around large trade surpluses, lack of access of American companies to domestic markets, and intellectual property protection.

美国目前与中国的贸易争端和20世纪80年代初与日本的争端类似。 它们都围绕着巨大的贸易顺差,美国公司进入国内市场渠道的缺乏,以及知识产权保护。

America won those disputes by applying a number of hard negotiation tactics, which included the threat of tariffs on Japanese products.

美国通过许多艰难的谈判策略赢得了这些争端,其中包括威胁对日本产品征收关税。

Washington seems to be following the same approach in addressing these disputes with China as it did with Japan. “The US trade war with Japan in the 1980s seems to be cited favorably as an example of how Washington might ‘win’ in the current dispute with China,” says Ilya Spivak, Sr Currency Strategist (DailyFX). “In fact, the approach adopted by Washington seems to be heavily influenced by current US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, a Regan White House veteran with strong involvement in its Japan strategy.”

华盛顿在处理这些与中国的争端时,似乎采取了与日本同样的方式。 "上世纪80年代美国与日本之间的贸易战,似乎被看作当前美国如何在与中国的争端中'赢'的范例,"美国苏黎世货币策略师伊利亚·斯皮瓦克(Ilya Spivak)表示。 "事实上,华盛顿采取的方式似乎受到了现任美国贸易代表罗伯特·莱特希泽(Robert Lighthizer)的深刻影响

But America’s approach -- treating China the same way it treated Japan -- seems weak, for a number of reasons. One of them is that China is an emerging, not a developed country, as Japan was back then. This means that it’s normal for China to rely on exports as a major engine of economic growth rather than on domestic demand. It wasn’t for Japan back then.

但是美国对待中国的方式---- 像对待日本一样对待中国---- 看起来很软弱,原因有很多。 其中之一是,中国是一个新兴国家,而不是当时的日本。 这意味着中国依赖出口而不是国内需求作为经济增长的主要引擎是很正常的。 那时的日本不是这样的。

Besides, China has already made some programs in reducing its reliance on exports. “While there are some parallels, they seem relatively shallow,” Spivak. “China has far stricter controls on its financial markets - and especially its currency – than Japan did on the eve of the 1985 Plaza Accord. That allows Beijing quite a bit more policy leverage. China’s deliberate move away from export-dependent growth in recent years insulates it further.”

另外,中国已经制定了一些计划来减少对出口的依赖。 "尽管(中国和日本的情况)存在一些相似之处,但相当微弱,"斯皮瓦克表示。 "与1985年广场协议(Plaza Accord)前夕的日本相比,中国对金融市场(尤其是人民币)的管控要严得多。 这使得中国政府拥有了相当多的政策杠杆。 中国近年来逐步改变了依赖出口的增长模式,这进一步隔绝了中国(免受外部影响)。"

Then there’s the state of competition between the two countries. Japan had developed a number of technology-intensive industries already that competed head to head against their American counterparts. Like automobiles, consumer electronics, and machine tools—to mention but a few.

此外还有两国的竞争状况。 日本已经发展了许多技术密集型产业,与美国竞争激烈。 就像汽车、消费电子产品和机械工具ー这里仅举几例。

That isn’t the case with China, which has yet to develop a single technology-intensive industry that presents a major challenge to its American counterparts.

但中国的情况并非如此,中国尚未发展出一个能对美国同行构成重大挑战的技术密集型产业。

And there’s another difference, too. The context -- the conditions and circumstances surrounding the trade disputes -- then and now. In the 1980s, the disputes took place within GATT. That was an informal trade organization working to cut tariffs across nations, including Japan, where tariffs remained high.

还有另外一个区别。 当时和现在的背景——围绕贸易争端的条件和环境, 20世纪80年代,这些争端发生在关贸总协定内部。 那是一个非正式的贸易组织,致力于削减各国的关税,包括日本,那里的关税仍然很高(有降低的可能)。

Now, the disputes are taking place within WTO, which replaced GATT.

现在,这些争端发生在世贸组织内部,取代了关贸总协定。

That’s a formal trade organization that has already lowered tariffs for most products traded by its member nations, including China.

这是一个正式的贸易组织,它已经降低了包括中国在内的大多数成员国贸易产品的关税(再要求中国降低关税不太现实)。

In the early 1980s, America’s mood was much different than it’s today. “Assuming that we’re discussing the peak years of the competitive and occasionally adversarial trade relationship between the U.S. and Japan in the 1980s and 1990s and then looking at the same for the U.S. and China, our observation is that these tensions are driven more by social mood in the countries involved and less so by the actual underlying fundamentals of any specific trade relations,” says Mark Galasiewski, chief analyst for Asia and Emerging Markets at Elliott Wave International. “And, tensions that simmer in bull markets which reflect a more positive social mood are often exacerbated in bear markets which reflect a more negative one.”

在20世纪80年代早期,美国的社会情绪与今天大不相同。 "假设我们讨论的是20世纪八九十年代美国和日本之间贸易关系的巅峰时期,充满竞争,偶尔对抗,然后再看看现在美国和中国的情况,我们的观察是,这些紧张局势更多地是由相关国家的社会情绪推动的,而不是任何特定贸易关系的实际基本面,"EWI(市场分析公司)亚洲和新兴市场首席分析师马克 · 加拉西维斯基(Mark Galasiewski)说。 "此外,反映出更积极社会情绪的牛市中酝酿的紧张气氛,往往在反映出更消极情绪的熊市中会日益加剧。"

And, finally, there’s history. Unlike Japan, China historically doesn’t yield to foreign pressure. Even if the odds are clearly against her.

最后,还有历史。 与日本不同,中国历来不屈服于外国压力, 即使形势明显对中国不利。

And that’s dangerous for the world financial system.

这对世界金融体系来说是危险的。

That’s why America should leave China some breathing room.

这就是为什么美国应该给中国一些喘息的空间。

Let it lose the trade war gracefully.

让他体面地输掉这场贸易战。