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U.S. Companies In China Losing Patience, Tell Trump 'Enough Is Enough'

福布斯:在华美国企业失去耐心,告诉特朗普“ 够了,适可而止!”



Peter Navarro, director of the National Trade Council, and President Trump’s biggest anti-China guru in the White House. (Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg)

图:美国国家贸易委员会主任、总统特朗普在白宫的最大反华领袖彼得·纳瓦罗 (Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg )

“Enough is enough!”

“ 已经够了,适可而止!”

That’s what U.S. corporations are telling the Trump administration on Wednesday following a proposed 10% tariff on $200 billion of Made in China goods.

这是美国企业周三对特朗普政府说的话,此前他们提议对2000亿美元的中国制造商品征收10%的关税。

“The cumulative tariffs that both countries are beginning to implement will harm each other’s economies and jobs,” says John Frisbie, president of the U.S. China Business Council, a lobbying firm representing U.S. multinationals in China. “No one wins in that scenario.”

代表在华美国跨国公司的游说集团“美中商务委员会 ”( U.S.China Business Council )主席约翰 · 弗里斯比表示:“两国开始实施的累积关税将损害对方的经济和就业。”,“ 在这种情况下,没有人会赢。”

Trump slapped $34 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods last week with another $16 billion coming later this month. China retaliated with equal tariffs. The U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said the additional threat of $200 billion, announced after market hours Tuesday, was to punish China for its retaliatory tariffs. China could not even impose an equal value of tariffs on the U.S. if it wanted to. Beijing would have to be more creative. Last year, the U.S. exports to China were valued at $129.8 billion, according to Census data.

特朗普上周对中国商品征收了340亿美元的关税,本月晚些时候还将征收160亿美元的关税,中国以相同的关税进行报复。美国贸易代表罗伯特 · 莱特希泽说,周二公布的2000亿美元的额外威胁,是为了惩罚中国的报复性关税。
中国甚至不能对美国征收同等的关税,北京必须更有创造力,根据Census的数据,去年美国对中国的出口额为1298亿美元。



Robert Lighthizer, U.S. trade representative (left) speaks with Peter Navarro. Both men see China the same way Trump does: as a threat to U.S. manufacturing and as an unfair competitor in Asian markets. (Photo: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg.)

美国贸易代表罗伯特 · 莱特希泽(左)与彼得 · 纳瓦罗交谈。两人对中国的看法与特朗普相同:都视其为对美国制造业的威胁,也是亚洲市场上的不公平竞争对手。( 图片来源:Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg )

On Wednesday, the market was full of headlines speculating on what Xi Jinping could do to retaliate. One way is to attack U.S. services trade—think banks, recently allowed to own mainland broker/dealers outright—and tech companies like Apple. Apple’s share price fell 1.25% today, worse than the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

周三,市场上充斥着有关中国可能采取何种报复行动的头条新闻,其中一种是攻击美国的服务贸易——比如最近被允许直接成为大陆经纪商/交易商的银行以及苹果等科技公司,苹果股价今天下跌1.25%,比标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数还要糟糕。

The U.S. has 6,031 products targeted to hit the $200 billion in new tariffs , according to numbers crunched by Chris Rogers, a research analyst from Panjiva, part of S&P Global Market Intelligence. The new proposal is subject to consultation through the end of August. The U.S. China Business Council will have its hands full.

标准普尔全球市场情报公司(S&P Global Market Intelligence)旗下潘吉瓦公司( Panjiva )的研究分析师克里斯·罗杰斯的数据显示,美国有6031种产品成为2000亿美元新关税的目标,新提议将在8月底前进行咨询磋商,美中商务委员会将忙得不可开交。

For now, the list is dominated by chemicals, though the products covered are relatively small by value ($7.1 billion, or 3.4% of the $200 billion of imports targeted). Other major categories targeted include textiles (935 lines but notably excluding apparel) and food (925 lines led by fish and vegetables).

目前,该清单以化学品为主,尽管按价值计算,所涵盖的产品相对较小( 71亿美元,占2000亿美元目标进口额的3.4%),其他主要类别包括纺织品( 935个税目,但主要不包括服装 ) 和食品( 925个税目,以鱼和蔬菜为首 )。

By value, the leading categories include electronics ($50.1 billion with 218 tariff lines), capital equipment ($42.0 billion with 200 lines), furniture ($29.7 billion from just 77 lines) and the automotive industry ($12.4 billion with 125 products targeted). The new list comes at the expense of a deeper reliance on China as a supplier for the products concerned, says Rogers.

按价值计算,主要类别包括电子产品( 50.1亿美元,含218个税目)、资本设备( 420亿美元,含200个税目 )、家具(297亿美元,仅77个税目) 和汽车工业( 124亿美元,针对125种产品 ),罗杰斯表示,新的清单是以更深层次依赖中国作为相关产品的供应商为代价的。

“That reduces the options for American buyers to replace Chinese supplies with other overseas providers and increases the risk of supply chain disruptions and higher costs,” he says.

他表示,“这减少了美国买家用其他海外供应商取代中国供应的选择,并增加了供应链中断和成本上升的风险,”

In the most recent $34 billion list, China accounted for 7.1% of those imports. That rises to 13.3% for the $16 billion list and hits nearly 21% for the $200 billion hit list proposed last night.

在最近的340亿美元清单中,中国占进口总额的7.1%,这一数字从160亿美元的清单上升到13.3%,昨夜提出的2000亿美元的名单中达到了近21%。

For some of the largest products, China's importance as a trade partner is even higher, rising to 49% for IT network gear and a whopping 69.5% for metal furniture.

对于一些最大的产品,中国作为贸易伙伴的重要性甚至更高,IT网络设备上升到49%,金属家具上升到69.5%。

The tech component “will likely lead to significant lobbying by IT service companies including Google and Facebook as well as retailers such as Ikea for exclusion of their products,” Rogers says.

罗杰斯表示,“ 这可能会让谷歌和Facebook等IT服务公司以及宜家等零售商大力游说,将其产品排除在外。”



An investor watches the electronic board at a stock exchange hall in Fuyang, China. The Shanghai 50 Index is in bear territory, down over 20% since January 26. (Photo by VCG/VCG via Getty Images)

图“”中国阜阳的一个证券交易大厅里,一位投资者在看电子板,上证50指数目前处于熊市,自1月26日以来下跌逾20%。(Photo by VCG/VCG via Getty Images)

The U.S. under Trump is currently fighting a multi-theater trade war. Trump has gone after Europe, Mexico and Canada. But he and his two trade sidekicks, Peter Navarro and Robert Lighthizer, are true believers in China mercantilism being bad for U.S. labor. China is the main target.

特朗普领导下的美国目前正在进行一场多线贸易战。
特朗普一直在追逐欧洲、墨西哥和加拿大,但他和他的两个贸易政策搭档彼得 · 纳瓦罗和罗伯特·莱特希泽是中国重商主义(译注:China mercantilism,原文如此)对美国工人不利的真正信奉者,中国是其主要目标。

While China has been good for U.S. consumers, keeping sneakers and toys cheap, it’s hurt blue-collar labor, which cannot compete in an outsourced economy against the Chinese on an hourly wage and social benefits basis. Many leading Democrats also believe this, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. Read the headlines about surging Democrats, and besides being soft on immigration, they are also in favor of tariffs and protecting American workers. The Hillary Clinton wing of the Democratic Party has no argument for the economy, and the free traders in the Republican party will have to turn to think tanks for work. Unless this whole trade-war business blows up in everyone’s face.

虽然中国对美国消费者有利,使运动鞋和玩具价格低廉,但却伤害了蓝领工人,因为他们在外包经济中无法以小时工资和社会福利为基础与中国竞争,包括参议院少数党领袖查克 · 舒默和佛蒙特州参议员伯尼 · 桑德斯在内的许多民主党领袖也相信这一点,读一下有关民主党人数激增的头条新闻,除了对移民问题态度较软以外,他们还赞成征收关税和保护美国工人,民主党的希拉里 · 克林顿阵营在经济方面没有任何争论,共和党内的自由贸易者将不得不转向求助智库。

To some, by going after China and other trading partners jointly, Trump makes it harder for countries like Germany or Mexico to side with China because it hurts their own, separate trade talks with the U.S.

对一些人来说,特朗普联合对付中国和其他贸易伙伴,使德国或墨西哥等国更难站在中国一边,因为这会损害他们自己与美国的单独贸易谈判。

“Trump believes that the best way forward is not to avoid a trade war, but to welcome, embrace, and glorify one because he is firm in his belief that—even though there will be economic contraction and institutional ruin—the United States will emerge better off than Europe, Canada, Mexico, Japan, and—most importantly—China,” says Daniel J. Ikenson, director of Cato’s Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy Studies. Ikenson does not advocate for Trump’s position.

Herbert A.Stiefel贸易政策研究中心主任丹尼尔·J·伊肯森表示:“特朗普认为,最好的前进方向不是避免贸易战,而是欢迎、拥抱和美化贸易战,因为他坚信——即便会出现经济收缩和制度崩溃——美国的状况也将好于欧洲、加拿大、墨西哥、日本,最重要的是中国。”伊肯森并不支持特朗普的立场。

Meanwhile, the U.S. China Business Council, which has been patient for the last 18 months, is now worried about a more severe Chinese retaliation.

与此同时,在过去18个月里一直保持耐心的美中商务委员会现在担心中国会采取更严厉的报复行动。

“Enough is enough. We need to stop the needless escalation of a tariff war and start working on solutions that will address the real concerns that American companies have about China’s intellectual property protection and technology transfer policies,” says Frisbie. “Those are the right issues to focus on, but tariffs are the wrong way to solve them.”

“ 已经够了,请适可而止,我们需要停止升级不必要的关税战,开始寻求解决方案,解决美国公司对中国知识产权保护和技术转让政策的真正担忧,“ 弗里斯比说。“ 这些都是值得关注的问题,但关税是解决这些问题的错误方式。”

For Trump, tariffs are the only way to bring people to the table. Only then, if all goes well, will problems get solved.

对特朗普来说,关税是让人们坐到谈判桌前的唯一途径,只有这样,且如果一切顺利,问题才能得到解决。

On Wednesday, famed investor Mark Mobius said a trade war marked the beginning of the global economy’s march towards financial crisis. He predicted a 10% drop in emerging market equities this year, led by further deterioration out of China.

周三,著名投资者马克 · 莫比乌斯表示,贸易战标志着全球经济开始走向金融危机,他预测,由于中国股市进一步恶化,新兴市场股市今年将下跌10% 。

China’s mainland equity markets are already down over 20% from their January 26 highs. Investors are likely to pile into the A-shares if Shanghai and Shenzhen fall another 20%. If another $200 billion worth of tariffs are imposed by September, an additional decline of that magnitude is not that hard to imagine.

中国内地股市已较1月26日的高点下跌逾20%,如果上海和深圳股市再下跌20%,投资者可能会蜂拥买入A股,如果到9月份再征收2000亿美元的关税,那么不难想象还会有这么大幅度的下降。