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India’s Economic Expansion Outpaces Rival China

印度的经济扩张速度超过了竞争对手中国



NEW DELHI—India’s economic expansion accelerated to the fastest pace in nearly two years, pulling further ahead of rival China in the race to be the world’s fastest-growing economy, as the effects fade from the government’s crackdown on cash and adoption of a new tax.

新德里-印度的经济扩张速度加快至近两年来的最快速度,在成为世界上增长最快的经济体的竞争中进一步领先于竞争对手中国。因为政府对现金的打压和新税的通过对经济的影响逐渐消失。

Gross domestic product in Asia’s third-largest economy grew 7.7% in the three months through March compared with a year earlier, according to government data issued Thursday. That was better than economists’ prediction of 7.4% and stronger than the 7% expansion in the preceding quarter.
India has now held the position as the world’s fastest-growing big economy for the second quarter in a row, a title that China had wrested from it about a year ago. China’s economy grew 6.8% in the past two quarters.

根据政府周四发布的数据显示,截至今年3月份的头3个月,亚洲第三大经济体国内生产总值同比增长7.7%。这比经济学家预测的7.4%要高,也比前一季度7%的增长率要高。印度已连续第二季度成为世界上增长最快的大型经济体,过去一年由中国占据这一头衔。过去两个季度,中国经济增长6.8%。

During the full fiscal year, India’s economy grew 6.7%, which was slower than the previous year’s 7.1% expansion.India’s economy had been disrupted by Prime Minister Narenda Modi’s sudden move to ban India’s high-value currency notes—known as demonetization—and the bumpy rollout of a new nationwide value-added tax.

在整个财政年度里,印度经济增长6.7%,比前一年7.1%的增长速度要慢。因为印度总理纳伦达•莫迪突然采取行动,禁止印度高面额货币流通——即所谓的“废止货币流通”——以及新出台的全国增值税,这一突然举动,打乱了印度经济。

“It’s a healthy number and confirms that the economy is in a recovery mode,” said Anubhuti Sahay, head of South Asia economic research at Standard Chartered Bank. “Growth should move up to 7.2% this fiscal year, bringing us back to the pre-demonetization levels.”The data in India showed broad-based strengthening. The growth rate in construction nearly doubled to 11.5%. Output of public administration and defense services also rose 13.3%, while manufacturing grew 9.1%.

渣打银行南亚经济研究主管阿努布提•萨海表示:“这是一个健康的数据,证实了经济正处于复苏模式。”“本财年的增长率应该会升至7.2%,使我们回到废止货币流通前的水平。”印度的数据显示了各领域的增长。建筑业的增长率几乎翻了一番,达到11.5%。公共财政和国防服务的支出也增长了13.3%,制造业增长了9.1%。

Although the headline figures look impressive, much of the burden of driving the economy forward has been shouldered by demand. Private investments, essential to create new jobs, are lagging. Exports remain sluggish, and demand in the country’s rural areas hasn’t fully recovered amid heavy indebtness of farmers.As next year’s general elections near, pressure is growing on Mr. Modi to get the economy firing on all cylinders. Criticism is mounting that not enough jobs are being generated for the more than 10 million Indians joining the workforce each year.

尽管总体数据看起来令人印象深刻,但推动经济发展的大部分动力都是由需求推动的。对于创造新的就业机会至关重要的私人投资则比较滞后。出口依然低迷,农民负债累累,农村地区的需求尚未完全恢复。随着明年大选临近,莫迪面临着越来越大的压力,要求他推动经济全面复苏。越来越多的人批评说,每年有1000多万印度人加入劳动大军,却没有创造足够的就业机会。

“While growth has accelerated, many voters, particularly in the rural community, aren’t feeling the benefits,” said Shailesh Kumar, director for Asia at Eurasia Group. But he added that Mr. Modi’s policies have helped bring down inflation, ensuring “support for him remains intact.”

欧亚集团亚洲事务主管沙列什•库马尔表示:“尽管经济增长加快,但许多选民,尤其是农村地区的选民,并没有感受到好处。”但他补充说,莫迪的政策有助于降低通胀,确保“对他的支持仍然完好无损”。

GDP growth dipped to a three-year low early last year after Mr. Modi’s high-value currency ban, aimed at reining in corruption, hurt demand. A quick implementation of a national tax on goods and services in July left businesses struggling to understand its complicated rules.While these moves initially caused pain, the outlook has brightened as businesses gradually get accustomed to the new system.

去年年初,莫迪为遏制腐败而颁布的高面值货币禁令损害了需求,之后印度国内生产总值的增速跌至三年来的低点。7月份,政府迅速实施了全国性的商品和服务税,这让企业难以理解其复杂的规定。虽然这些举措最初带来了痛苦,但随着企业逐渐适应新体系,前景已变得明朗起来。

V.K. Agarwal, who owns a power-equipment manufacturer, said he now has a wider choice of suppliers since the new rules have removed multiple state taxes that acted as hurdles to interstate trade. As a result, he is buying items from suppliers in Orissa and Chhattisgarh states, in addition to his home state of Uttar Pradesh, allowing him to negotiate better prices.
Further, the uniform tax across the country has eliminated the need for buyers to provide proof for claiming lower taxes applicable on business-to-business interstate sales.“Earlier, we used to suffer because the seller won’t bother giving us all the documents because he wasn’t affected. That caused a lot of difficulty at the time of assessment.

拥有一家电力设备制造厂的阿加瓦尔说,自从新规定取消了对各邦之间贸易构成障碍的多项邦税之后,他现在有了更广泛的供应商选择。结果,除了从他的家乡北方邦采购之外,他还可以从奥里萨邦和恰蒂斯加尔邦的供应商那里购买商品,这使得他可以进行更好的价格谈判。

此外,全国范围内的统一税已经不需要买家为企业对企业之间的邦际销售提供减税申请的证据。早些时候,我们一直遭受证明文件的困境,因为卖家不会提供给我们所有的文件,因为他不会受到影响。这在评估时造成了很多困难。

Those things will not happen now,” Mr. Agarwal said.However, threats to the South Asian economy have also grown lately with global oil prices rising sharply.
Mr. Modi benefited during much of his first four years in office from low oil prices, which allowed him to raise taxes. But with oil near 3.5-year highs, prices at retail fuel outlets have surged, stoking public anger and pressure on the government to slash taxes.

这些事情现在不会发生,”阿加瓦尔说。然而,随着全球油价大幅上涨,对南亚经济的威胁也在不断增加。在上任前四年的大部分时间里,低油价让莫迪受益,这让他得以提高税收。但随着油价接近三年半来的高位,成品油零售网点的价格飙升,激起了公众的愤怒,并给政府削减税收的压力。

If Mr. Modi buckles, it could weaken the government’s fiscal health, slowing down everything from infrastructure investment to social spending and heightening the risk of India’s debt being downgraded, potentially driving away foreign investors.

如果莫迪让步,可能会削弱印度政府的财政健康状况,使得从基础设施投资到社会支出等方方面面的投资放缓,并加大印度债务被下调的风险,这可能会赶走外国投资者。

“The recent run-up in inflation, in particular oil prices, has certainly started to pose some headwinds to unfettered growth. Current conditions don’t look conducive for India to reach the closer-to-9% growth levels it hopes to achieve,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank.

“最近的通货膨胀,尤其是石油价格的上涨,肯定已经开始给不受约束的经济增长带来一些不利因素。”瑞穗银行经济与战略主管Vishnu Varathan表示:“目前的状况不利于印度实现其希望达到的接近9%的增长水平。”

Adding to the problems are the country’s banks, which have intensified scrutiny of borrowers after public outcry over the misuse of people’s money following disclosure of some big lending frauds at state-run banks.“Banks are looking at us as if we are all offenders,” said Ganesh Gupta, president of the Federation of Indian Export Organizations. “We are facing a difficult time.”

雪上加霜的是,国家的银行在披露一些在国有银行贷款的一些大的贷款欺诈行为,并公开抗议滥用人民的钱的行为后,加强了对借款人的审查。印度出口组织联合会主席甘尼什•古普塔表示:“银行在看着我们,好像我们都是违法分子。”“我们正面临一段艰难的时期。”