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Here Is One of the Biggest Lessons from Trump's Withdrawal from the IranDeal

特朗普退出伊朗协议的最大教训之一

来源网站:国家利益
原文时间:2018-05-17 08:21:51



Image: White House National Security Advisor John Bolton (R)departs with U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence afterTrump announced his intention to withdraw from the JCPOA Iran nuclear agreementduring a statement in the Diplomatic Room at the White House in Washington,U.S. May 8, 2018. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

2018年5月8日,美国华盛顿白宫的外交办公室,特朗普宣布从伊朗核协议中退出的声明后,白宫国家安全顾问约翰·博尔顿陪同美国总统唐纳德·特朗普和副总统迈克·彭斯离开。路透社/乔纳森·恩斯特

Changes in international relations and world politics rarelyhappen overnight. Rather, the flow of events makes international actorsreconsider their tactics and strategy, adjusting policies in order to achievetheir goals. Donald Trump's decision to pull out of the Joint ComprehensivePlan of Action (JCPOA)—better known as the Iran nuclear agreement-is important byitself. However, its long-term influence may be even more significant. A lotwas said and written about the potential impact of Trump's announcement, butone issue has received less attention that it actually deserves: the U.S. withdrawalfrom the JCPOA emphasizes the importance of economic means in internationalconflicts. The growing understanding of this fact is changing internationalrelations in a historic way. Specifically, the U.S. withdrawal shows thatAmerican sanctions against one country can have negative, “collateral” effects on others. This development highlights the virtuesof Russia's protests against U.S. sanctions policies.

国际关系和世界政治很少在一夜之间发生变化,相反,事件的进展使得国际参与者重新思考他们的战术和策略,并调整政策以实现目标。唐纳德•特朗普决定退出联合全面行动计划(JCPOA)——更广为人知的是伊朗核协议——这一决定本身就很重要,然而,它的长期影响可能更大。人们对特朗普声明的潜在影响发表了很多评论,但其中一个问题却没有得到应有的重视:美国从联合全面行动计划中撤出,强调了经济手段在国际冲突中的重要性。对这一事实日益加深的理解,正以一种历史性的方式改变国际关系。具体来说,美国的撤军表明美国对一个国家的制裁会对其他国家产生负面的连带影响,这一发展凸显了俄罗斯抗议美国制裁政策的好处。

The past months of public discussions on whether Americashould pull of out of the agreement obscures the core of President Trump'sdecision-the reintroduction of sanctions against Iran. At the same time, thelink between the sanctions and the progress of Iran's nuclear program has beenbroken: the Islamic Republic is in compliance with the JCPOA, a fact confirmedby U.S. intelligence services, but the sanctions are returning. The Trumpadministration has made several demands to Iran (never have an ICBM; cease itssupport for Hezbollah and Hamas; end the publicly declared quest to destroyIsrael etc.), pronouncing, that before Tehran fulfills them, it will be subjectto sanctions initially developed and implemented to stop the Iranian nuclearprogram.

过去的几个月里,美国是否应该退出协议的公开讨论掩盖了特朗普总统决定的核心——重新实施对伊朗制裁。与此同时,制裁和伊朗核项目进展之间的联系已经被打破:伊斯兰共和国遵守了美国情报机构所确认的联合全面行动计划,但制裁正在恢复。特朗普政府向伊朗提出了几项要求(决不拥有洲际弹道导弹;停止对真主党和哈马斯的支持;结束公开宣布的摧毁以色列的任务),声明说,为了阻止伊朗的核计划,在德黑兰兑现承诺之前都将受到最初制定和实施的制裁。

What does this move mean for the international relations?Time will tell if Europeans can implement their declarations to both save theJCPOA and to protect European companies from U.S. sanctions for doing businesswith Iran. This seems unlikely for now, confirming that America's central rolein the world economy gives it an effective foreign policy tool. This alsoraises the following question: how should other countries counter Americaneconomic influence?

这对国际关系意味着什么?时间将会证明欧洲能否实施这样的声明,既拯救联合全面行动计划,又保护与伊朗做生意的欧洲公司免受美国制裁。目前看来,这似乎不太可能,这证实了美国在世界经济中的核心地位赋予其有效的外交政策工具,这也提出了以下问题:其他国家应该如何应对美国的经济影响?

Every country has either already integrated this issue in itsforeign political thinking or will have to do it sooner than later. Russia,being an object of American sanctions itself, does not need this reminder.However, this gives Moscow a new argument in its communications with otherpowers: you can become a “collateral” object of American sanctions even if you are not violatingthe international law and following your international obligations. In thisregard, Moscow's relations with Europe are in the limelight. Last year,Europeans were concerned that the White House was going to strengthen sanctionsagainst Russian energy companies supplying Europe. The rational concerns ofEuropeans and sane American experts prevailed. After the reintroduction of the sanctionsagainst Iran—with little, if any, regard of Europe—leaders on the continent are askingwhether the United States will always have their interest in mind.

每个国家要么已经把这个问题融入到其外交政治思考中,要么就必须尽快解决这个问题。作为美国制裁对象的俄罗斯并不需要这个提醒。然而,这使莫斯科在与其他大国的交流中有了新的论据:即使你没有违反国际法和国际义务,你也可能成为美国制裁的“附属品”。就这一点而言,莫斯科与欧洲的关系是引人注目的。去年,欧洲人担心,白宫将加强制裁欧洲能源供应的俄罗斯能源公司。欧洲人和理智的美国专家的理性担忧占了上风。在对伊朗实施制裁后——几乎没有任何关注——欧洲领导人都在问,美国是否会一直关注他们的利益。

Many observers have noted how damaging Trump's decision to withdrawfrom the JCPOA is to transatlantic solidarity—but the issue is broader than that. Will America use itseconomic power to achieve political goals in spite of European economicinterests?

许多观察人士已经注意到,特朗普退出联合全面行动计划的决定对跨大西洋团结的影响有多大,但这个问题比那个更广泛。美国是否会不顾欧洲的经济利益而利用其经济实力来实现政治目标?

Talk of the Trump administration imposing tariffs on Europehighlight this danger. The energy cooperation between Russia and Europe couldalso be in America's crosshairs if the showdown between Moscow and Washingtonintensifies. It is no surprise that Russia's desire to separate economiccooperation and political issues on the continent is gaining legitimacy.

有关特朗普政府对欧洲征收关税的言论突显了这种危险,如果莫斯科和华盛顿之间的摊牌加剧,俄罗斯和欧洲之间的能源合作也可能成为美国的关注点。俄罗斯将与欧洲大陆的经济合作与政治问题分开的愿望正在获得合法性,这一点也不奇怪。

While Europe is grappling with Trump's decision, the negativeimpact of existing American sanctions against Russia is obvious: Moscow haslimited access to foreign investment and expertise needed for economicdevelopment. Arguably, American sanctions against Iran will be less damaging toRussia than to Europe, China and other Asian buyers of Iranian oil. The majordownside for Washington is that the move against Iran is bringing Tehran andMoscow closer together. Russia's partnership with Iran hardly makes up for lostcooperation with the West, but the two neighboring countries can do moretogether than separately. Withdrawing from the nuclear deal makes the IslamicRepublic the partner of choice for sanctioned Russian companies.

尽管欧洲正在努力应对特朗普的决定,但美国对俄罗斯的现有制裁所带来的负面影响是显而易见的:莫斯科对外国投资和经济发展所需的专业技能有所被限。可以说,美国对伊朗的制裁对俄罗斯的损害要小于对欧洲、中国和其他伊朗石油亚洲买家的损害。华盛顿的主要缺点是,针对伊朗的行动使德黑兰和莫斯科的关系更加紧密。虽然俄罗斯与伊朗的伙伴关系很难弥补失去与西方的合作所带来的损失,但是两个相邻国家比分开的可以做更多的事情。退出核协议使伊斯兰共和国成为受制裁的俄罗斯公司选择的伙伴。

One should not forget that China is one of the participantsof the JCPOA. American sanctions will likely push Beijing closer to an actualalliance with Moscow, aimed at curbing American economic influence. So farcooperation with China helps Russian companies in a purely economic sense.Beijing and Moscow have not yet forged a strategic partnership aimed at jointdefense against American economic pressure for the sake of political goals.After pulling out of the Iran deal and the looming threat of a U.S.-Chinafull-scale trade war, decision makers in Beijing are reexamining the use ofeconomic tools as foreign policy instruments by the United States. As one ofthe biggest buyers of Iranian oil, China now has to receive a U.S. waiver. Butwill Washington issue it? Or will China extend its practices of avoiding U.S.sanctions by avoiding payments in American dollars and regular bankingchannels? If Beijing decides to build up its capacities to counter the economicinfluence of the United States, it can be done in cooperation with Russia andother major players. These capacities will allow China—and others sensitive to Americanpressure—to better compete with the United States in the global economyand diminish the efficiency of American economic tools of foreign policy.

我们不应忘记,中国是联合全面行动计划的参与者之一。美国的制裁可能会使北京更接近与莫斯科的实际联盟,以遏制美国的经济影响。到目前为止,与中国的合作帮助了俄罗斯公司,这只是纯粹的经济意义上的。北京和莫斯科尚未建立旨在共同防御美国经济压力的为实现政治目标的战略伙伴关系。退出伊朗协议之后以及迫在眉睫的中美全面贸易战,北京的决策者正在重新审视美国使用经济工具作为外交政策工具的做法。作为伊朗石油的最大买家之一,中国现在不得不接受美国的豁免权。但是,华盛顿会发出这样的声音吗?或者,中国是否会通过避免美元和常规银行渠道的支付来延长其避免美国制裁?如果北京决定增强其对抗美国经济影响力的能力,就可以与俄罗斯和其他主要国家合作。这些能力将使中国——和其他对美国压力敏感的国家——能够更好地与美国在全球经济中竞争,并削弱美国外交政策中经济工具的效率。

Russia, as a country already feeling American economicpressure, will undoubtedly support such an international effort. While othermajor powers have a lot to lose from escalating economic conflict with theUnited States (i.e. China) or, are yet not ready mentally, politically orotherwise to challenge Washington (i.e. Europe) Russia is becoming the leaderin establishing cooperation meant to resist American economic pressure. TheU.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA gave Moscow one more example to convince otherswhy such cooperation is so important.

作为一个已经感受到了美国经济压力的国家,俄罗斯无疑会支持这样的国际合作。尽管与美国的经济冲突不断升级会使其他大国(即中国)也有很大损失,或者在精神上、政治上或其他方面都没有准备好挑战华盛顿(即欧洲),而俄罗斯正成为旨在抵制美国经济压力合作的领导者。美国从联合全面行动计划撤军又给了莫斯科一个例子,让他们相信为什么这样的合作如此重要。

Nikolay Pakhomov is President of The New York ConsultingBureau.

Nikolay Pakhomov是纽约咨询局的主席。