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High housing costs are driving out lower-income Californians

高昂的住房成本正在赶走低收入的加州人。



California lost lower-income residents to other states over a recent 11-year period, while gaining wealthier households from elsewhere in the U.S. The disparity reflects the state's sky-high rents and home prices, according to several reports released Thursday.

据周四公布的几份报告显示,在最近11年的时间里,加州失去了其低收入居民,同时从美国其他地方获得了较富裕的家庭,这一差距反映出加州高昂的房租和房价。

The studies, produced by Beacon Economics for public policy nonprofit Next 10, mirror findings from the groups two years ago, as well as a flurry of other research that's documented California's persistent housing crisis.

该研究是由Beacon Economics为非营利组织“Next 10”提供的,它反映了两年前的研究结果,以及一系列其他的研究,这些研究记录了加州持续的住房危机。

The organizations say the numbers underscore the depth of the affordability problem. They called for policy changes that would increase housing supply so "low-wage residents are able to remain in California."

这些组织说,这些数字凸显了住房负担问题的严重性。他们呼吁改变政策,增加住房供应,这样“低工资的居民就能留在加州。”

"In order to maintain a robust economy, California will need to ensure that residents across all income and employment levels are able to afford a basic cost of living in the state," the authors wrote.

“为了保持强劲的经济,加州需要确保所有收入和就业水平的居民都能负担得起本州的基本生活费用。”作者写道。

For now that's not the case. From 2006 to 2016, 1.09 million more people left California for other states than moved here from other places in the U.S., with most decamping for Texas, Arizona, Nevada, Oregon and
Washington, where housing costs are lower.

然而事与愿违。从2006年到2016年,有超过109万人离开加州前往美国其他州。主要去往德州、亚利桑那州、内华达州、俄勒冈州和华盛顿等房价更低的地方。

The level of so-called negative domestic migration was far greater in 2006 amid the housing bubble but declined as the economy and home prices cratered.

2006年,在房地产泡沫期间,由于所谓的“国内负增长”水平过高而产生了大量人口流失问题。但随着经济和房价的暴跌,这一问题有所缓解。

After bottoming out in 2012, the rate of out-migration has picked up in recent years as housing costs once again surged.

在2012年触底反弹之后,随着住房成本再次飙升,近年来的外迁速度再次上涨。

The state's median home price is now $537,315, reflecting a compounded annual growth rate of nearly 10% since 2012, according to real estate website Zillow. The median rent for a vacant apartment jumped an annual rate of nearly 5.5% to $2,428.

房地产网站Zillow的数据显示,该州房价中值现在为537,315美元,反映了自2012年以来的复合年增长率近10%。空置公寓的平均租金上涨了近5.5%,达到2428美元。

As a result, more people are leaving, according to Beacon and Next 10.

因此,根据Beacon和Next 10的报告,未来会有更多的人离开。

In 2016, 41,000 more households left the state than moved in. That's far more than the roughly 23,000 in each of the prior two years, and the only 3,400 in 2012, though it's less than the 46,300 that left in 2015.
Over the 11-year period, the state's population has continued to grow, reflecting births and immigration.

在11年的时间里,该州的人口持续增长,反映出出生率和移民问题。

Those who leave tend to have lower incomes, indicating migration is driven by high housing costs rather than high taxes, the reports said. From 2006 to 2016, the state lost a net 516,800 households earning less than $50,000. For households earning $50,000 or more, migration actually turned positive — a gain of 62,400.

报告称,那些离开的人的收入往往较低,表明移民是由高房价而非高税收推动的。从2006年到2016年,该州净亏损516,800户收入低于5万美元的家庭。对于年收入在5万美元以上的家庭来说,移民则在增加——增加了62,400人。

There are also differences by region. The San Francisco Bay Area, which has the highest median home prices in the state, had more people arriving from out of state than leaving each year from 2014 to 2016.

不同地区之间也存在差异。旧金山海湾地区是该州房价中值最高的地区,从2014年到2016年每年都有更多的人从该州来到这里。

That's the opposite of what was happening in Southern California — which, like the state as a whole, lost residents.

这与南加州发生的情况正好相反——整个州都在失去居民。

The reports didn't break down regional migration trends by income. But the authors theorized the positive figures up north reflected that the region's technology boom attracted many people from out of state who could afford to live there on high-tech salaries.

这些报告没有显示出收入影响地区移民的趋势。但两位作者推测,北部地区的积极数据反映出,该地区的技术繁荣吸引了许多其他国家的人,他们有能力利用高技术高工资的工作在该地区生活。

Even so, the Bay Area isn't immune to its high housing costs. Job growth has recently slowed in the tech sector, as has the rate of people moving to the Bay Area.

即便如此,湾区也不能幸免于高昂的房价的不利影响。科技行业的就业增长最近有所放缓,人们搬到海湾地区的速度也有所放缓。

Earlier this year, a group of tech executives signed a letter saying it's become difficult to "recruit and retain employees when they could accept jobs in other states and pay a fraction of California's housing costs."

今年早些时候,一群科技高管签署了一封信,称“当人们在其他州的住房成本只是加州住房成本的一小部分时,(在加州)招聘和留住员工变得非常困难。”

And on Thursday, San Francisco online payment company Stripe announced it was giving $1 million to a political organization that advocates for dramatically expanding housing supply, saying the lack of affordable housing "is a significant barrier to the Bay Area's economic progress."

周四,旧金山在线支付公司Stripe宣布,将向一个支持大幅扩大住房供应的政治组织提供100万美元,称缺乏保障性住房“是海湾地区经济发展的一个重要障碍”。

Southern California employers also say they've had to forgo growth opportunities because high costs are making it hard to recruit workers.

南加州的雇主也表示,他们不得不放弃增长机会,因为高昂的成本使得招聘员工变得困难。

"Economies are living, breathing, dynamic organisms, and to the extent our housing supply stays virtually stagnant, that impacts our potential GDP growth," said Adam Fowler, research director at Beacon Economics.

Beacon Economics的研究主管Adam Fowler表示:“经济是活的、会呼吸的、动态的有机体,而我们的住房供应几乎停滞不前,这将影响我们潜在的GDP增长。”