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India overtakes China to Become No 1 Economy in the World

印度媒体表示:印度正超越中国成为全球头号经济大国



India overtakes China to Become No 1 Economy in the world . 2018 outlook: India Asia's tiger cub, but China to see start of long-lasting growth slowdown .

印度正超越中国成为全球头号经济大国。2018年展望:印度是亚洲的虎崽,但中国却已经出现长期增长放缓的势头。

NEW DELHI : Asia’s sweet spot looks stretched and there's a rising risk of painful snapback, but among the region, India, Indonesia and the Philippines are the new rising stars. This is the observation of Nomura India in Asian markets outlook for 2018. The brokerage calls these three countries 'tiger cubs' among the emerging market pack. Stock market returns The brokerage expects double-digit equity returns across China, Korea and India, primarily driven by strong earnings growth. India remains its preferred pick. It is expecting 10-15 per cent returns from Chinese equity indices, mid-double digit returns for Korea's Kospi and 17 per cent equity return for India. For India, earnings momentum is seen picking up pace and sustain beyond 2018. "We expect government reforms like the goods and services tax, the implementation of the bankruptcy code and a push on infrastructure buildout to have a positive impact on growth and valuation multiples," it said. For India, the brokerage is overweight on sectors such as financials, auto, capital goods, construction and healthcare, while it largely remains underweight cement, IT and consumer staples. Chinese & Indian economies Nomura sees a greater risk of a spike in China credit defaults and capital flight in 2018 than in 2017.

新德里:亚洲的增长点似乎在扩大,不过痛苦的经济迅速回落的风险也在逐渐增加,但是在亚洲地区,印度、印度尼西亚和菲律宾都是新晋的新兴经济体。这是印度野村证券对2018年亚洲市场前景的观察。该券商将这3个国家称为新兴市场集团的“虎崽”。它预计,中国、韩国和印度的股市回报率将达到两位数,这主要是受到强劲的盈利增长的推动。印度仍是其中的首选。该公司预计,中国股票指数将获得10%至15%的回报,韩国综合股价指数的回报率为15%左右,印度股市的回报率为17%。对印度而言,它的盈利势头正在加速,并将持续到2018年。报告称:“我们预计,政府的改革——比如商品和服务税、破产法的实施,以及对基础设施建设的推动——都将对增长和估值倍数产生积极影响”。就印度而言,该公司看好金融、汽车、资本货物、建筑和医疗等行业的发展,但大体上对水泥、IT和消费品行业持悲观态度。在中国和印度的经济中,野村认为,中国信贷违约和资本外逃的风险将在2018年达到顶峰,超过2017年。

The brokerage noted that China has lowered its GDP growth target in 2018 and reformer Liu He is promoted to vice premier in charge of the financial sector, which supports its views that 2018 will see China focusing on reforms over growth. "The implication of all this is that China finally starts to address its moral hazard problem, with banks and bondholders repricing credit and starting to demand a higher risk premium, causing a continued widening of spreads between high yield and high grade credit," the brokerage said. On the other hand, the foreign brokerage said that Asian cubs, especially India, could be about to experience the same phenomena as China did over 2005-15.

该机构指出,中国已在2018年降低了它的GDP增长目标,而改革家刘鹤则被提拔为负责金融部门的副总理,这一变动支持了该机构所提出的观点,即在2018年中国将把重点放在经济增长改革上。该券商表示:“这一切的含义是,中国终于开始解决其道德风险问题,银行和债券持有人重新定价信贷,并开始要求更高的风险溢价,导致高收益和优质信贷之间的利差持续扩大”。另一方面,外国经纪公司表示,亚洲的虎崽——尤其是印度——可能会经历与2005年至2015年的中国相同的现象。

The brokerage believes FDI inflows into India and Asean-5 will surge to around $240 billion by 2025 from $100 billion per year now. It is bullish on India both cyclically and structurally. The economy, it said, is in the early stage of a cyclical recovery and will register 7.5-8 per cent growth in H1 2018 -- the start of a robust and enduring expansion. China, on the other hand, is biting the bullet on the more painful reforms, leading to a long-lasting growth slowdown, the brokerage said. Yet inflation in China is set to rise and for this country the credit risk differentiation will be the big theme for 2018, Nomura said.

该机构认为,到2025年,流入印度和东盟五国的外商直接投资将从现在的每年1000亿美元飙升至约2400亿美元。它看好印度经济的周期性和结构性。报告称,中国经济正处于周期性复苏的早期阶段,将在2018年上半年实现7.5%至8%的增长——这是一个强劲而持久的扩张的开始。另一方面,它表示,中国正在经历更痛苦的改革阶段的紧要关头,这将导致经济的长期增长放缓。然而,野村政权指出,中国的通货膨胀率将会上升,对于这个国家来说,信贷风险的差异化将成为2018年的主题。

PM Modi and reforms : The brokerage said that the Prime Minister Narendra Modi has "turned his lieutenants into farsighted policy makers, building the foundations for higher, sustainable growth, not the old-style, policy-induced boom-bust cycles." Together with prudent monetary and fiscal policies, and India’s rich endowment of a cheap, young and abundant labour, this makes the brokerage confident that it is on the verge of unlocking significantly more growth potential. Domestic politics and a surge in oil prices though remains key risk.

莫迪总理和改革:该机构表示,印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪“将他的副手变成了富有远见的政策制定者,为更高、可持续的增长——而不是旧式的、由政策引发的繁荣-萧条周期——奠定了基础。”加上谨慎的货币和财政政策,以及印度所拥有的廉价、年轻和充足劳动力的禀赋,这家券商确信,印度正处于释放显著增长潜力的边缘。国内政治和油价飙升仍是关键的风险。

Snapback : The broking firm said that Asia’s high debt leaves it exposed to a global repricing of credit risk, possibly triggered by inflation surprises. The brokerage believes that the recovery in Asian exports masks structurally weak private domestic demand in several economies, leaving the region more exposed than it may first appear to a number of downside risks that, on our count, outnumber the upside ones. "It is notoriously difficult to pinpoint the timing of a snapback but if we were to venture our best guess we would say Q2 and Q3 are the high-risk quarters," it said.

迅速回跌:这家经纪公司表示,亚洲的高负债使其面临全球信贷重新定价的风险,这可能是由通胀所意外引发的。该机构认为,亚洲出口的复苏掩盖了一些经济体的结构性疲弱的国内私人需求,这使得该地区的风险敞口超过了可能出现的一系列下行风险,在我们看来,这一风险超过了上行风险。该公司表示:“准确地指出迅速回跌的时间点是非常困难的,但如果我们大胆猜测的话,我们会说第二季度和第三季度是充满高风险的季度。”