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Iran is Heading West Now

伊朗向着西方前进

16.07.2015

2015年七月16日

Author: Petr Lvov

作者:彼特·利沃夫

Column: Politics

专栏:政治

Region: Middle East

地区:中东

Country: Iran

国家:伊朗



It is now official that the final agreement on the Iranian nuclear program has been signed in Vienna on July 14. The agreement provides a plan for the gradual lift of sanctions in exchange for more than ten years of restrictions on Iran's nuclear development. Additionally, arms embargo against Iran will not be lifted over the next five years.

关于伊朗核计划最终的官方协议已经于七月14日在维也纳签订。该协议提供一个逐步停止对伊朗制裁的计划,并以此换取对伊朗核发展超过十年的限制。此外,在未来五年继续对伊朗实施武器禁运。



Under the agreement signed, IAEA inspectors will have access to all sites in Iran that may be deemed suspicious, including military installations. The UN Security Council resolution on the withdrawal of sanctions can be adopted within a month. The agreement also imposes restrictions on uranium enrichment for a period of eight years. In the future, Tehran may proceed with its programs of uranium enrichment, but only for peaceful purposes. In addition, Iran must reconstruct the reactor at the facility in Arak for it to be able to serve only peaceful purposes.

在这份被签订的协议中,国际原子能机构的检查员可以进入伊朗所有被怀疑的地点,包括军事设施。联合国安全委员会撤除制裁的决议会在一个月之内得到满足。该协议也对伊朗的铀浓缩强加了一个为期八年的限制。未来德黑兰可以继续进行它的铀浓缩计划,但是仅以和平为目的。此外,伊朗必须重建其位于阿拉克的核反应设施,使它只能为和平目的服务。

Should Iran "behave well" in the next 10 years, its nuclear program will be taken off from the agenda of the UN Security Council. At the time there's a total of seven UN Security Council resolutions that were adopted due to the Iranian nuclear dossier.

如果伊朗在未来十年中"表现良好",那么联合国安全委员会的日程表就不会再检查它的核弹计划了。此前因为来自伊朗的核弹资料,联合国安全委员会总共批准了七份决议。

In exchange, Tehran will enjoy the removal of international sanctions that were imposed by both the UN Security Council, and by individual states. Iran has already been granted access to the system of international financial transfers – SWIFT. But everything else will take much longer. The sanctions will be removed gradually, in tune with the fulfillment of Tehran's promises. But, in principle, by the end of 2015, all trade, economic and financial constraints that were affecting the Iranian economy must be removed completely, including oil trade and investments in the Iranian economy. This last part is going to be particularly profitable for the West.

作为交换,德黑兰将享受到那些来自联合国安全委员会和一些单个国家强加于德黑兰的国际制裁的终止。伊朗已经得到保证进入国际金融转移系统(SWIFT)。但是得到保证的其他事项要最终实现还需要更长的时间。只要德黑兰满足承诺,对它的制裁会相应逐步取消。但是原则上到2015年底,所有影响伊朗经济的贸易、经济和金融限制必须完全取消,这其中也包括石油贸易以及对伊朗经济的投资。最后一部分对西方而言尤其合算。



What does all this mean in strategic terms? To be frank, the agreement on the Iranian nuclear program is in fact an achievement of historical significance, since Iran is making a U-turn to seek rapprochement with the US and the EU. The experiment of the Islamic Revolution is over and it has failed. And the winners are the West, the sitting Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and his pro-Western liberal team. And one could predict this happening due to the moods of the overwhelming majority in Iranian society. The population is tired of the hardships that have been brought forward by international sanctions. Iran's economy has been experiencing a long period of stagnation. The government can hardly fund social programs anymore and the youth, which accounts to over 50% of the population of the country, refuses to understand why it has to live according to the religious concepts of Ayatollah Khomeini instead of following the modern technological and cultural developments that are adopted across the world.

那么从战略角度来看这份协议意味着什么呢?坦白地讲,这份针对伊朗核弹计划的协议事实上是一份具有历史意义的成就,因为伊朗180度转弯,正在寻求与美国和欧盟的和解。伊斯兰革命的实验已经结束,实验结果是失败。赢家是西方,以及在任的伊朗总统鲁赫尼与他的支持西方的自由主义者团队。看看伊朗社会中占压倒性的那一大部分人的情绪,任何人很容易就能预测到这份协议一定会被接受。伊朗人已经厌倦他们面对的由于国际制裁带来的艰难情况了。伊朗的经济已经经历了很长时间的停滞了。伊朗政府几乎再也不能资助任何社会计划了,而超过其人口50%的青年人则拒绝理解为什么伊朗必须根据霍梅尼的宗教思想过活,为什么伊朗不能追随全世界都在接受的现代科技和文化的发展。

If Iranian government refused to change its ways, it would face a "color" revolution brought around by Western propaganda and the fact that Iran is a multinational state where the rights of minorities are not always respected. Hence the religious establishment led by Ayatollah Khomeini began realizing that the ideas of the Islamic Revolution have lost their appeal. Therefore, Tehran had little choice other that making significant concessions in the negotiations in Vienna.

如果伊朗政府拒绝改变它的治国方式,那么它就将面对一场由西方宣传工具带来的"颜色"革命。而且伊朗实际上是一个多民族国家,在那里少数民族的权利往往不被尊重。因此由霍梅尼领导的宗教建设开始意识到伊斯兰革命的思想已经失去了吸引力。在这些前提之下,德黑兰除了在维也纳的谈判中作出重大让步之外毫无其它选择。

It is clear that from now on all hopes of a quick recovery of the Iranian economy are attached to Western corporations. Moreover, a number of large American and European corporations have already held secret talks with Iranian officials on the conditions of their return to Iran. It is clear that in a few years, if not months, the political system in Iran is to be changed, since the religious establishment will be forced to leave in order to give way to a modern administration. It is possible that Iran will pursue the status of an associate member of the EU. But this does not mean that Iran will immediately abandon Iraq, Syria and Yemen.

很清楚从现在开始西方的大财阀们将驾驭伊朗经济快速恢复的希望。此外许多大型的美国和欧洲公司已经与伊朗官员秘密讨论了它们回归伊朗的情况。鉴于宗教建设将被迫为一个现代管理模式让路,因此在未来数年内,甚至数月之内,伊朗的政治系统会发生改变。伊朗可能将寻求成为欧盟的一个伙伴。但是这并不意味着伊朗会立刻放弃伊拉克、叙利亚和也门。

But yet another thing is perfectly clear, Russia is not nearly as attractive as a partner for Tehran, as it was before the nuclear deal was signed. It is just incapable to compete with Western corporations in the fight for the Iranian economy. As for weapons shipments they are not going to be allowed for 5 more years. But for a while Iranians will be playing the Russian card against the West to get rid of all restrictions as soon as they can.

另外还有一件事也很清楚,那就是在此协议签订之前俄罗斯对伊朗所具有的那种搭档身份几乎不再具有吸引力了。俄罗斯在伊朗为经济而战时已经不能与西方大财阀们竞争了。而且未来5年多的时间里武器运输还是不被允许的。当然只要存在可能性,伊朗人为了对抗西方摆脱所有限制,暂时还是会打一打俄罗斯这张牌的。

In any case, the game is almost over. This country is now clearly heading for the West. However, it has to fight for a place in the Western orbit with its Arab neighbors, especially Saudi Arabia. But that is another question. And Washington is able to influence its allies in such a way that two arch enemies of yesterday may soon prove to be allies in the Persian Gulf. Regardless, the region of the Middle East must prepare for the coming changes.

无论如何吧,这次竞争差不多结束了。这个国家如今投奔西方了。不过为了在西方的势力范围里争得一个位置,它还得和它的阿拉伯邻居们——尤其沙特阿拉伯——进行战斗的。当然那是后话了。两个昨天还在波斯湾是死敌的国家也许不久就证明是盟国了,华盛顿可以用这种方式影响它的盟国们。不管怎样,中东地区必须为即将到来的改变做好准备。