原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译:龙腾小倩 转载请注明出处
论坛地址:http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-357811-1-1.html
Have we grown that fast? Making sense of India's new GDP numbers

我们真的增长得那么快?弄懂印度新GDP数字



Is there something else that we ought to take into account, such as the new formula for calculating India’s GDP — a change that was made from last year?(Illustration: Abhimanyu Sinha)

有没有其他一些什么应该让我们考虑在内的,比如说用于印度GDP计算的新公式——与去年所制作相比的一大改变?(插图:Abhimanyu Sinha)



First, here’s a bit about the new formula. Before it was changed last year, the goods produced or traded that make up one part of India’s GDP (the other parts are made up of farm output and services) were measured by aggregating factory output — by counting the number of units produced and traded by companies.

首先,这里有一些与新公式有关的。在去年发生改变之前,生产出的或是进行贸易了的货物占了印度GDP 的一部分(另一部分是由农场产出和服务组成),是用工厂总产量来进行测量的——通过计算公司的产出单位数量和已进行贸易了的单位数量。

Under the new formula, it is the value and not the number of units of factory output that is aggregated to get a measure of the goods produced.

而在新的公式下,是通过计算工厂产出的单位总价值而不是单位总数量来测量产出货物价值的。

Does that make a difference? It does.

这会有什么影响吗?会。

A simple (and perhaps, simplistic) example is of a car factory. If it produces and sells the same number of cars this year as it did last year but improves the per unit value of the car (think upgrades or higher value models) then under the new formula, it would contribute to a higher growth rate, but because there is no increase in the actual number of units produced, it may not have grown at all under the old formula.

一个简单的(也许是过分简单的)例子就是汽车工厂。如果今年与去年生产的汽车数量上一样的,但是提高了每辆车的单位价值(想一下升级或是更高价值型号),那么在新公式之下,这就会导致更高的增长率,但是因为生产单位的实际数量其实是没有增加的,所以这在旧公式下,可能就是完全没有增长的。



The new formula relies on more exhaustive data. Under a new ministry of corporate affairs (MCA) guideline, all companies (500,000 already have and more are signing up) have to upload balance sheet data on the MCA’s records and this captures the value added by all activities of manufacturing, trading and even marketing.

新的公式依赖于更详尽的数据。在新公司事务部(MCA)指南中,所有公司(500000个已经报名,还有更多的正在签约)都已经上传了在MCA记录上的资产负债表数据,这就能捕捉到制造业、贸易甚至营销中的所有活动所带来的增值。

All of this means the new method for computing GDP, which takes 2011-12 (when GDP grew 6.7%) as the base year, has bumped up India’s estimates of growth. In 2012-13, the new formula estimates growth at 5.1% (under the old one, it was 4.5%); in 2013-14, it is 6.9% (the old estimate was 4.7%); and, as we all know by the high-decibel crowing that came in its wake, in 2014-15, it was 7.3%.

所有这一切都意味着计算GDP的新方法(2011 - 2012(这期间的GDP增长了6.7%)年间就是用此方法计算的第一年),使得印度的增长估计值快速增长。在2012 - 2013年间,新公式下的估计增长率为5.1%(在旧公式下是4.5%);在2013 – 2014年间, 新公式下的估计增长率为6.9%(旧公式下是4.7%);还有,正如我们所知的在其觉醒之后的高调啼叫,在2014 – 2015年间,这个数据是7.3%。

There’s obviously no ‘old data’ for 2014-15 but estimates suggest that the old method may have pegged growth at 6.3-6.8%. All of this may mean something else too.

显然2014 – 2015年间没有的旧公式下的数据,但据估计,旧公式下的增长率可能是6.3 - -6.8%。所有这一切也可能意味着别的东西。

Last week, FM Arun Jaitley told US investors that India could attain double-digit growth soon. He wasn’t kidding. Because what’s 10% now could’ve been just 8% before!

上周,印度商业部长阿伦·贾特利对美国投资者说,印度不久后就能达到两位数的增长率。他不是在开玩笑。因为现在的10%可能就是之前的8%!

Unfortunately, economic growth is not all about how it is measured. And the first couple of months of 2015-16 haven’t exactly been promising: domestic car sales grew 18% in April but only 7.7% in May; exports and imports — both an index of economic activity — slumped in May; and despite last year’s 7.3% growth, most indicators show that consumer spending and investment continues to be sluggish.

不幸的是,经济增长并不都只是关于如何测量。2015-2016年的前几个月还不是完全有前景的:4月份的国内汽车销量增长了18%,但5月份只有7.7%;出口和进口——两者的经济活动指数——都在5月下滑了,尽管去年7.3%的增长,但大多数指标都显示,消费者的支出和投资仍然是很缓慢的。

Another measure of economic development also seems dismal: jobs.

另一个衡量经济发展的因素似乎也很暗淡:工作。

Between December 2013 and December 2014, India added an impressive 421,000 jobs but that figure is a mere drop if you consider that every year there are 15 million Indians who join the ranks of those who are seeking jobs.

2013年12月至2014年12月,印度增加了421000个工作岗位,令人印象深刻,但这如果你考虑到每年都有1500万印第安人加入寻求工作队伍中,你就会觉得这一数字简直是杯水车薪。

If 10 is to really be the new 8, many things have to change — not merely a formula.

如果以前的10真的是新公式下的8,那很多事情都会发生改变——不仅仅只是一个公式。