中国的电动汽车不断提升，这让其他地方的竞争对手感到担忧
China’s Electric Cars Keep Improving, a Worry for Rivals Elsewhere
译文简介
我想汽车行业应该早点认真对待它。
正文翻译
China’s Electric Cars Keep Improving, a Worry for Rivals Elsewhere
中国的电动汽车不断提升，这让其他地方的竞争对手感到担忧
中国的电动汽车不断提升，这让其他地方的竞争对手感到担忧
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I guess the car industry should have taken it seriously much sooner.
我想汽车行业应该早点认真对待它。
But… but… we have affordable $75k SUVs for the middle class…
但是......但是......我们为中产阶级提供“负担得起”的7万5千美元的 SUV......
Only a $1200/mo payment! 15% APR for 10 years, you can’t find a better deal!
每月“只需”支付 1200 美元！15% 的年利率，10 年期，你找不到比这更划算的了！
lol. I’m shipping VW ID4s from China to LATAM for 25k a pop
哈哈。我把大众 ID4 从中国运到拉丁美洲，每辆 2.5 万元。
Wut?
啥？
They're shipping VW ID4s from China to LATAM for 25k a pop
他们正在以每辆2.5 万的价格将大众 ID4 从中国运送到拉丁美洲
Wat?
哈？
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THEY ARE SHIPPING SHIT FRIM CHINA WAY CHEAPER!
他说他们从中国运来的东西都要便宜得多！
They kinda spurred it. China wanted to develop a local auto industry like Korea and Japan did so it required foreign automakers to form partnerships with local companies and share tech in exchange for market access. Foreign companies were successful at not sharing much tech and still getting access, something China realized early on and decided it was better to start working on the next big technological evolution in the industry while it’s still early instead of trying to catch up on an outdated tech that’s getting banned left and right in 15-30 years.
这也算是一种刺激。中国希望像韩国和日本一样发展本土汽车产业，因此要求外国汽车制造商与本土公司建立合作关系，共享技术以换取市场准入。中国很早就意识到了这一点，并决定与其努力追赶 15-30 年后会被不断禁用的过时技术，不如趁早开始研究汽车行业的下一个重大技术演进。
That’s part of it, also China is a net importer of oil and with car sales increasing it would be massively dependent on external geopolitical factors and supply constraints. It makes it much better for China if they can use electricity generated at home vs imported oil.
这只是原因之一，另外，中国是石油净进口国，随着汽车销量的增加，这将在很大程度上取决于外部地缘政治因素和供应限制。如果中国能使用本国生产的电力，而不是进口的石油，这对中国来说会好得多。
They use a lot of coal to generate that electricity and import a lot of it.
他们使用大量煤炭发电，并大量进口煤炭。
That’s also something that can be changed though. They can and are building solar and nuclear and be less dependent on other countries.
If they added 200m ICE cars they would be dependent on foreign oils until they eventually switched away from ICE cars.
So instead they’ve built high speed rails and an EV industry.
但这也是可以改变的。他们可以而且正在建设太阳能和核能，从而减少对其他国家的依赖。
如果他们增加 2 亿辆内燃机汽车，他们就会依赖外国石油，直到最终放弃内燃机汽车。
因此，他们建立了高速铁路和电动汽车产业。
Yeah, they’ve also built (and are building, or plan to build, literally all stages) like 90% of the worlds solar, wind and nuclear in the last 6 years
是的，在过去的 6 年里，他们还建造了（并且正在建造或计划建造，实际上是所有阶段）世界上 90% 的太阳能、风能和核能
Let's use the US as a comparison. There are hundreds of millions of cars on the roads and tens of thousands of larger scale electricity plants.
If you're going to stop importing fossil fuels which one of those two consumption demands is easier to change to a renewable source?
EVs are basically a flex fuel car because they don't care where the electricity comes from.
让我们以美国为例。道路上有数以亿计的汽车，还有数以万计的大型发电厂。
如果要停止进口化石燃料，这两种消费需求中哪一种更容易转变为可再生能源？
电动汽车基本上是一种柔性燃料汽车，因为它们不在乎电力来自哪里。
Also, didn't China make huge public investments in stuff like LiFePO early on? Meanwhile western elites were crying and screeching about picking winners and losers and distorting the free market.
另外，中国不是很早就在磷酸铁锂等领域进行了巨额公共投资吗？与此同时，西方精英们却在哭天喊地，大谈优胜劣汰、扭曲自由市场。
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It does help that china also is the largest battery manufacturers.
中国也是最大的电池制造商，这一点确实很有帮助。
Another thing was that the ev car revolution allowed kind of a new race and a much more even playing field versus battling existing ICE cars
另一件事是，与现有的内燃机汽车相比，电动汽车革命带来了一种新的比赛和更公平的竞争环境
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Malaysia did it and so …
马来西亚也干了，但是......
They did it much earlier, and their auto industry never caught up to the industry leaders, they just created two companies that were OK at fulfilling local demand with low-mid range vehicles that were either based on foreign models, licensed copies of them, or inferior local models. There’s a reason Proton and their other car company are not household names outside Malaysia like Kia or Nissan are, or even BYD is becoming now.
他们做得更早，但他们的汽车工业却从未赶上行业领先者，他们只是创建了两家公司，但这些公司在满足本地需求方面还算可以，它们生产的中低端汽车要么是基于外国车型，要么是外国车型的授权仿制品，要么是劣质的本地车型。这就是为什么宝腾和他们的另一家汽车公司不像起亚或日产那样在马来西亚以外家喻户晓，甚至不像比亚迪现在正在变得家喻户晓的原因。
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"It takes all her running just to stay in place." -Lewis Carroll
Sounds to me that American car companies stopped trying to keep up.
“她需要全力以赴才能保持地位。”路易斯-卡罗尔
在我看来，美国汽车公司已经不再试图跟上时代的步伐了。
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They simply can’t keep up
他们根本跟不上
They could have kept up - if they hadn't spent decades trying to deny that alternatives to ICE existed.
Their current failures are a result of their own decisions, not the result of some structural flaw which makes them less capable.
他们本可以跟上——如果他们没有花费数十年时间试图否认内燃机车的替代品存在的话。
他们目前的失败是他们自己决定的结果，而不是因为某些结构性缺陷导致他们能力下降。
Also, for 50 years American car companies have ran on “made in America” instead of making better cars than the next company. They get bailed out by the gov and put taxes on imports instead of making a better car.
Prime example: Harley Davidson. I know it’s not a car company but they’re the epitome of “an American vehicle.” Gov bailed them out of a bankruptcy in the 80’s because they couldn’t compete with imports. So imports were tariffed in anything bigger than ~800cc’s. Then imports just dumped R&D into small motorcycles. To this day Craigslist is full of old Yamahas and bmws. And Harley had to get bailed out again. And also sued because they didn’t even offer modern brakes in new motorcycles. Their motto is “America’s Chopper” and they aren’t even made here, they’re made in Mexico.
Same trend with other vehicle companies. If you look at where parts are coming from, where they’re assembled, who’s building them… the Honda accord or Toyota tundra is the most American built car. American car companies have been coasting on their “American made” reputations for a half century now and it’s losing its fizz and not even really true.
此外，50 年来，美国汽车公司一直以“美国制造”为噱头，而不是制造比其他公司更好的汽车。他们得到政府的救助，对进口汽车征税，而不是制造更好的汽车。
最典型的例子： 哈雷戴维森。我知道这不是一家汽车公司，但他们是“美国汽车”的缩影。上世纪 80 年代，由于无法与进口车竞争，政府将其从破产中解救出来。因此，进口车被征收关税，凡是排量大于 800cc 的车型都是如此。然后，进口商就把研发投入到了小型摩托车上。时至今日，Craigslist（二手网站） 上到处都是二手雅马哈和宝马。哈雷不得不再次获得救助。他们还被起诉，因为他们甚至没有在新摩托车上提供现代制动器。他们的座右铭是“美国的摩托车”，但他们甚至都不是在这里生产的，而是在墨西哥生产的。
其他汽车公司也有同样的趋势。如果你看看零部件从哪里来、在哪里组装、谁在制造......本田 accord 或丰田 tundra 才是最美国制造的汽车。半个世纪以来，美国汽车公司一直依赖于 "美国制造 "的声誉，但这一声誉正在逐渐消失，甚至不再真实。
Mostly true, but there are also some perverse factors. China's EVs are legitimately decent on their own, but I still wouldn't want 996 work hours and being shot for unxizing to be even just one of the reasons they're competitive.
And now I'll pull a complete whiplash on you - this is why we need massive international trade deals with these countries. We should give each other access to our markets, but the deal for that should be, say, not imprisoning people when they demand better hours or more safety. Reciprocal and fair, of course, us westerners should also promise to not brutalize workers just the same.
大部分是正确的，但也有一些不正当的因素。中国的电动汽车本身确实不错，但我仍然不希望看到 996 的工作时间和因加入工会而被枪毙——这甚至只是他们具有竞争力的原因之一。
现在我要对你的论点进行彻底的颠覆——这就是为什么我们需要与这些国家达成大规模的国际贸易协议。我们应该让彼此进入我们的市场，但这样做的协议应该是，比如说，当人们要求更好的工作时间或更多的安全时，不要把他们关进监狱。当然，互惠和公平，我们西方人也应该承诺不会同样残酷地对待工人。
I think the running theory is that making electric vehicles vs. making ICE vehicles are two completely separate ventures. It'd be like Hasbro pivoting from board games to video games. They could've done it but it would've required them to start from the ground up. They didn't want to spend the capital and man power while neglecting their current profit model.
我认为目前的理论是，制造电动汽车与制造内燃机汽车是两个完全不同的企业。这就好比孩之宝公司从桌面游戏转向视频游戏。他们本可以这样做，但这需要他们从头开始。他们不想在花费资金和人力的同时忽视现有的盈利模式。
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US abandoned the affordable car, someone else will fill the gap
美国放弃了经济实惠的汽车，别人来填补空白
Didn't this happen with Japanese cars in the 70s?
70 年代的日本汽车不也是这样吗？
Exactly this. People need reliable cheap transportation. The US manufactures only want to sell high margin vehicles. It's like home builders only building luxury homes and apartments. There needs to be volume incentives.
With the Section 179 changes hopefully we'll see some changes in the car market. If the tax deduction gets changed for the gvwr and the cap is applied then there is less of an incentive to buy monster trucks that cost 100k. A 25k cap would incentivise "low cost" fleet purchases instead of trying to maximizing the tax offset.
正是如此。人们需要可靠的廉价交通工具。美国制造商只想销售高利润的汽车。这就像房屋建筑商只建造豪华住宅和公寓一样。需要有对走量的激励措施。
随着179条款的修改，希望我们能看到汽车市场的一些变化。如果对总重量的减税额度进行调整，并设置上限，那么购买售价 10 万的怪兽卡车的动力就会减弱。2.5 万的上限可以鼓励“低成本”汽车的销售，而不是鼓励民众去试图最大限度地抵税。
Don't worry, US Auto manufacturers will just lobby for insane tariffs on Chinese vehicles
别担心，美国汽车制造商只会游说对中国汽车征收疯狂的关税
There are so many producers in China selling EVs that there is a massive price war, this is spurring on even more demand as more people can no afford an electric car. This demand is lowering costs of batteries, due to economies of scale and battery prices are dropping. EVs will take a massive market share in China in the next 5 years or so.
中国有如此多的生产商在销售电动汽车，以至于出现了大规模的价格战，这刺激了更多的需求，因为越来越多的人买得起电动汽车。由于规模经济效应，这种需求降低了电池成本，电池价格也随之下降。未来五年左右，电动汽车将在中国占据巨大的市场份额。
Isn't this literally the free market? I thought everyone had to respect and defend it, no matter what?
这不就是自由市场吗？我以为无论如何，每个人都必须尊重和捍卫它？
It's only a free market if it allows the western upper classes to get richer. They very quickly change their attitude if it backfires and hurts their bottom line.
I'm getting lixedin posts now from senior pharma execs, stating how shocked they are about IP issues in China and how western inspectors who go to inspect their suppliers are now at risk of being arrested on espionage grounds.
Are they fucking stupid? Did they really believe the post Berlin wall hype of trade creating a free and open world right up until 2024?
只有让西方上层社会变得更富有，这才是自由市场。如果适得其反，损害了他们的底线，他们很快就会改变态度。
我在领英上看到一些制药公司的高级管理人员发帖，说他们对中国的知识产权问题感到非常震惊，还说去检查供应商的西方检查人员现在有可能因间谍罪而被捕。
他们是傻子吗？难道他们真的相信了柏林墙倒塌后关于贸易将在 2024 年前创造一个自由开放世界的炒作？
Huawei overtook Samsung and Apple to be number 1 phone maker, shortly after that the free market leader tried everything in its arsenal, including but not limited to banning it from google, banning its suppliers from selling to it, and getting Canada to literally kidnap its CFO off a plane and falsely imprison her for 3 years to try and kill it.
Tik Tok operates in the U.S., follows all U.S. laws, hosts its U.S. user data in the U.S. with a U.S. company (oracle), but they were bombing U.S. billionaire social medias out so the free market leaders made a law specifically to target the company, not the issues surrounding social media.
"Free" market. lol
It's never about what's good for the average citizen, it's always been about what's good for the billionaires.
华为超越三星和苹果成为第一大手机制造商后不久，这个自由市场的领导者就使出了浑身解数，包括但不限于禁止华为使用谷歌、禁止华为的供应商向华为销售产品，还让加拿大把华为的首席财务官从飞机上绑架下来，诬陷她入狱三年，试图扼杀华为。
Tik Tok 在美国运营，遵守所有美国法律，其美国用户数据由一家美国公司（oracle）托管，但他们却把美国亿万富翁社交媒体炸了个稀巴烂，因此自由市场的领导者专门制定了一项针对该公司的法律，而不是围绕社交媒体的问题。
“自由”市场。哈哈哈。
从来都不是什么对普通公民有利的事，一直都是对亿万富翁有利的事。
TikTok is banned in China. So is FB, Google Search, Wikipedia, Insta, Spotify, Twitter, etc.
How is this fair? Why MUST the US allow China to install software on every phone in the US? Fuck ‘em.
TikTok在中国被禁止。FB、谷歌搜索、维基百科、Insta、Spotify、Twitter 等也是如此。
这公平吗？为什么美国必须允许中国在美国的每部手机上安装软件？去你的吧。
FB, google, wiki, insta, spotify twitter aren't banned in China because they're American. They're banned because they don't follow Chinese laws which govern all social media that operate there, including their own, which is why they also banned Tik Tok which is a Chinese company.
Tik Tok follows U.S. laws but it's the only social media of its kind that's targetted due to its country or origin.
It seems like this nuance flies over your and a majority of this sub's head which makes me question the level of education and IQ remaining on this site.
And we are talking about free trade, free trade denotes that if you follow a jurisdication's laws which are reasonable and fair, you should be allowed to operate there.
Try to keep up here.
FB、谷歌、维基、Insta、Spotify、Twitter 在中国被禁并不是因为它们是美国的。它们之所以被禁，是因为它们不遵守中国的法律，而中国的法律管辖着所有在中国运营的社交媒体，包括它们自己的媒体，这就是为什么它们也禁止了 Tik Tok 这家中国公司。
Tik Tok 遵循美国法律，但它是同类社交媒体中唯一一个因其国家或原籍而被针对的社交媒体。
你和大多数本版的人似乎都不了解这种细微差别，这让我对这个网站的教育水平和智商产生了怀疑。
我们在谈论自由贸易，自由贸易意味着如果你遵守一个司法管辖区的合理和公平的法律，你就应该被允许在那里经营。
多了解一点再来学人评论。
It’s not entirely equivalent.
China didn’t ban them. Google, FB, etc. refused to adhere to China’s rules, so they left. If they adhered to the rules, they could have done business there.
China’s rules apply to all companies.
If there are sweeping privacy laws that all companies in America must adhere to, that would be great, it means ensuring Chinese companies (or any company) would be equivalently impacted.
But as it stands, America picks and chooses how laws are applied, and how it targets specific companies and industries.
Examples include Boeing vs Airbus, Japanese tariffs, the chicken tax, sugar tax vs. Mexico…and so on and so on. Ironically enough, all crony capitalistic policies that is karma biting back. From Boeing issues, high fructose corn syrup in everything, truck price gouging, etc…
Americans have been sold free market dreams, but is wildly hypocritical in many aspects.
这并不完全等同。
中国没有禁止它们。谷歌、FB 等公司拒绝遵守中国的规则，所以它们离开了。如果他们遵守规则，他们本可以在中国开展业务。
中国的规则适用于所有公司。
如果美国制定了所有公司都必须遵守的全面隐私法，那就太好了，这意味着确保中国公司（或任何公司）都会受到同等影响。
但目前的情况是，美国在如何适用法律、如何针对特定公司和行业方面是有针对性的。
例如波音与空客、日本关税、对墨西哥的鸡肉税和糖税......等等。讽刺的是，所有的裙带资本主义政策都是因果报应。从波音公司问题、在所有产品中添加高果糖玉米糖浆、卡车价格欺诈等等......
美国人一直被灌输自由市场的梦想，但在很多方面都是虚伪的。
We want affordable EVs and if they have to be sold from China, so be it. Free market.
我们想要负担得起的电动汽车，如果它们必须来自中国，那就这样吧。自由市场。
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No need for rivals to worry. When it’s time to worry, we’ll hear some vaguely worded statements about National Security (TM) and bans would follow soon. This is a country that used National Security as a reason to sanction Canadian aluminum imports not long ago. Even the EU is scared this time and thinking about protectionist measures because they have a huge auto industry of their own that can’t compete with Chinese EVs on either tech or price at this time because China has a 10-15 year head start on investing in EVs.
竞争对手无需担心。到了该担心的时候，我们会听到一些措辞含糊的关于“国家安全”的声明，禁令很快就会接踵而至。不久前，这个国家还曾以国家安全为由制裁加拿大的铝进口。就连欧盟这次也害怕了，正在考虑采取保护主义措施，因为他们自己也有庞大的汽车产业，但目前在技术和价格上都无法与中国的电动汽车竞争，因为中国在电动汽车投资上已经领先了 10-15 年。
They can try but countries without an automotive industry don't give a fuck about Americans and Europeans whining about losing. They can ban the import of Chinese cars but they'll still lose massive profits from the global market and China's market itself. It's a pointless endeavor.
他们可以试一试，但没有汽车工业的国家才不会在乎美国人和欧洲人对失败的抱怨。他们可以禁止进口中国汽车，但他们仍然会从全球市场和中国市场本身失去大量利润。这是毫无意义的挣扎。